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Old 12-05-2023, 08:34 AM
  #341  
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Originally Posted by Bluedriver
Where was this said?
The last pilot teams meeting.
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Old 12-05-2023, 08:40 AM
  #342  
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Originally Posted by Noisecanceller
The play by play did not give me warm and fuzzy for approval. Up to today I assumed it was a slam dunk.
Same here, but ultimately it depends on market definition by the judge. DOJ defnitely has a case, but they arent even willing to work with Blue & spirit which Judge Young seems to like to do.

From the start, Judge Young was questioning the DOJ on spirits survivability which makes me think JetBlue still has a slight edge.
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Old 12-05-2023, 08:51 AM
  #343  
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Originally Posted by LoopsMcDoops
With my bias a consideration, from reading the closing arguments, I really get the feeling the DOJ is arguing on their heels. They're just not making a good case. But at the end of the day it's the Judge in charge here.
At the end of the day do you think that anyone in the administration REALLY cares about winning this case? It becomes a corporate shakedown to lawyers and lobbyists. Most of our federal govt politicians are purely performative in their positions and getting $$$$$ and re-elected is job one.
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Old 12-05-2023, 08:52 AM
  #344  
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Originally Posted by DrSmacFum
Same here, but ultimately it depends on market definition by the judge. DOJ defnitely has a case, but they arent even willing to work with Blue & spirit which Judge Young seems to like to do.

From the start, Judge Young was questioning the DOJ on spirits survivability which makes me think JetBlue still has a slight edge.
The burden is on the DOJ. Answers to questions with purely speculative responses such as Spirit being in financial trouble. The DOJ responds with "Frontier says ULCC model is good." Or their response to sworn testimony regarding divestitures is "well, there is no proof they will actually enter a route."

"Spirit is still evolving because they are lowering costs via self service bag drop."

Really weak. And of course the full stop injunction or nothing approach is unreasonable unless your boss is Kantner who is a big New Brandeis proponent along with Tim Wu.
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Old 12-05-2023, 08:53 AM
  #345  
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Originally Posted by Directautogroup
The burden is on the DOJ. Answers to questions with purely speculative responses such as Spirit being in financial trouble. The DOJ responds with "Frontier says ULCC model is good." Or their response to sworn testimony regarding divestitures is "well, there is no proof they will actually enter a route."

"Spirit is still evolving because they are lowering costs via self service bag drop."

Really weak. And of course the full stop injunction or nothing approach is unreasonable unless your boss is Kantner who is a big New Brandeis proponent along with Tim Wu.
definitely which is why I think spirit CEO testimony has more weight than I originally thought, based on questioning
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Old 12-05-2023, 08:59 AM
  #346  
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Originally Posted by DrSmacFum
Same here, but ultimately it depends on market definition by the judge. DOJ defnitely has a case, but they arent even willing to work with Blue & spirit which Judge Young seems to like to do.

From the start, Judge Young was questioning the DOJ on spirits survivability which makes me think JetBlue still has a slight edge.
I think the judge hinted at his feelings while questioning the defense. Something along the lines of if I allow the injunction until certain divestitures and accommodations are in place. Keep spirit around in name and seat config for 2 years, let go of the Ewr/lga/bos slots, and give other ulcc ample notice of ending a route etc. he said multiple times that spirit will cease to exist without the merger. Not a slam dunk but definitely in jetblues favor
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Old 12-05-2023, 09:06 AM
  #347  
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"DOJ: Spirit is still innovating, like trying to cut costs, with things like self-service bag drop. "

Holy crap these guys are idiots. Self service bag drop has been around for years and all airlines do it.

My lawyer-turned-pilot friend is probably right: if DOJ was a private firm they'd be sanctioned for how bad their case is.
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Old 12-05-2023, 09:27 AM
  #348  
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The judge literally said at the start “Questions do not indicate the inclination of the court in any way,"

He clearly enjoys the “Socratic method” of law and enjoys the back and forth discussion.

Its also been noted that Judge Young loves trials,
loves the nature of them. The back and forth is exactly what he loves about them, he gets off on this stuff.

It’s why he said from the start “Questions do not indicate the inclination of the court in any way," because he wanted to just have a back and forth Socratic line of questioning.

The evidence is well known on both sides. For the DOJ to win, it’s a narrow tightrope down illogical assumptions. If the Judge decides to go down it, is what it is. But my belief has always been the DOJ has failed to demonstrate harm
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Old 12-05-2023, 11:02 AM
  #349  
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I was at court today.
Unimpressed with JBLU's closing; DOJ put on a good performance, best to date.

Didn't feel great leaving the courtroom.

Chatted it up with other attendees. Singled out one woman I really wanted to talk to since I'd seen her every day I attended.
She ended up being an antitrust atty who attends these things regularly. She stated it's 80% chance of ruling with DOJ. The other two attys agreed it appeared to be a DOJ victory.

I painfully sold a metric $hitton of SAVE stock after that conversation and am now out of the stock.

I really wanted to hear something different from the other attendees.

I still think it's a coin flip and is a reasonable merger but I couldn't justify my extreme overweight position. All the best to you guys.
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Old 12-05-2023, 11:11 AM
  #350  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I was at court today.
Unimpressed with JBLU's closing; DOJ put on a good performance, best to date.

Didn't feel great leaving the courtroom.

Chatted it up with other attendees. Singled out one woman I really wanted to talk to since I'd seen her every day I attended.
She ended up being an antitrust atty who attends these things regularly. She stated it's 80% chance of ruling with DOJ. The other two attys agreed it appeared to be a DOJ victory.

I painfully sold a metric $hitton of SAVE stock after that conversation and am now out of the stock.

I really wanted to hear something different from the other attendees.

I still think it's a coin flip and is a reasonable merger but I couldn't justify my extreme overweight position. All the best to you guys.
been fun to read the chaos from your opinion on stwit. Did the lady give you any specific reason for her opinion? I struggle to see a strong 80% cause of the below:

- the judge consistently questions spirits survivability.
- DOJ basing things off of outdated information
- DOJ making speculative claims
- JetBlue using the DOJs own material against them to prove that JetBlue is a unique challenger and good for consumers
- The judge acknowledging that the industry is dynamic
- consistent questions about divestitures during the entire course of the trial
- The judge questioning if he should look at this on a national scale vs route by route scale
- no in depth analysis by the DOJ on routes

would love to hear some thoughts.
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