In the courtroom.
12-03-2023, 06:23 PM
#302
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,551
Hawaiian seems to do perfectly fine filling up widebodies without any domestic CONUS support feed. I’m not familiar with how much codeshare traffic they have, but that argument doesn’t seem very logical.
You’re basically arguing for us to become a network carrier and cover the map, but with the exceedingly rare edge case of SWA, no one has pulled that off in history without some nasty bankruptcies along the way. Such a feat is actually probably way less feasible now, since there are, well, 4 massive legacies to compete with even if you can get to that scale wo being slayed.
Would you advise the board of Neimann Marcus to buy Dollar General? So they can “cover the map” more effectively?
You’re basically arguing for us to become a network carrier and cover the map, but with the exceedingly rare edge case of SWA, no one has pulled that off in history without some nasty bankruptcies along the way. Such a feat is actually probably way less feasible now, since there are, well, 4 massive legacies to compete with even if you can get to that scale wo being slayed.
Would you advise the board of Neimann Marcus to buy Dollar General? So they can “cover the map” more effectively?
Here is the dirty little secret. All the national carriers make more money selling credit cards than they do flying airplanes. You can't sell credit cards with an east coast route map and another random pacific route map that doesn't connect with your current route map. jB needs a true route network capable of becoming what the big airlines really are which are banks.
Alaska has already demonstrated the problem with buying Hawaiian and it's that you have to keep both products to make it work. Nobody except people from Hawaii and the pac northwest will be buying Alaska branded credit cards.
jetblue buying Hawaiian right now, would just be stupid, and honestly Alaska buying Hawaiian is a desperate move to try and gain a relevant market share. JetBlue AK and Hawaiian merging would have been the best scenario, but even then it would have been jb/ak first and then HA later. There is still a really good chance the two new entities end up merged in the not to distant future.
also these "50 big boats" you're talking about are really just 19 old 717's(that need replaced) 18 321's and 24 330's half of which are leased and pretty much all slated to go away with the 787 order.
Last edited by RiddleEagle18; 12-03-2023 at 06:52 PM.
12-03-2023, 08:14 PM
#303
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2016
Posts: 931
We argue how JB needs to get out of the northeast and now some think that 61 planes and 787s are going to do that? This is why we should just stay in our lanes and fly planes.
What we are doing now is the better way to go. If Hawaiian was to still be available to purchase afterwards then that would be a very nice addition. Then again, after the B6NK merger dust settles, instead of buying HA to go through another merger (albeit smaller), we can use that money to make widebody orders. I believe that is what's going to happen, probably 6-9 yrs from now. The problem is some folks here at B6 would be retired already. So this convo for some is FOMO. Good thing we don't get a say in this
12-03-2023, 08:37 PM
#304
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,146
I agree. I think these peeps are getting all frazzled only because "widebody flying". It's 61 planes and a base in HNL vs 200 planes, good size order book, and several additional bases. Which one seems like a better deal to become a national player while we spool up our transatlantic flying? B6NK merger also significantly increases QOL for a lot of people by them being able to live in one of those bases. I bet if there was no widebody and we were looking at 61 321s, the story would be different.
We argue how JB needs to get out of the northeast and now some think that 61 planes and 787s are going to do that? This is why we should just stay in our lanes and fly planes.
What we are doing now is the better way to go. If Hawaiian was to still be available to purchase afterwards then that would be a very nice addition. Then again, after the B6NK merger dust settles, instead of buying HA to go through another merger (albeit smaller), we can use that money to make widebody orders. I believe that is what's going to happen, probably 6-9 yrs from now. The problem is some folks here at B6 would be retired already. So this convo for some is FOMO. Good thing we don't get a say in this
We argue how JB needs to get out of the northeast and now some think that 61 planes and 787s are going to do that? This is why we should just stay in our lanes and fly planes.
What we are doing now is the better way to go. If Hawaiian was to still be available to purchase afterwards then that would be a very nice addition. Then again, after the B6NK merger dust settles, instead of buying HA to go through another merger (albeit smaller), we can use that money to make widebody orders. I believe that is what's going to happen, probably 6-9 yrs from now. The problem is some folks here at B6 would be retired already. So this convo for some is FOMO. Good thing we don't get a say in this
https://ibb.co/pJQ5sSJ]https://i.ibb.co/2gSHLTg/IMG-6829.jpg
and a base in Honolulu to a predominately East Coast airline would not provide the sort of commonality, synergy, or route structure that would be very competitive against the Big Four.
12-03-2023, 09:58 PM
#305
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Every single legacy is a network carrier covering the map, not point to point like southwest but they cover every city. Jetblue isn't buying spirit for their product. They are buying spirit for their assets, 200 airbi and an equally large order book. JetBlue won't keep spirits route structure either. They wont keep Houston and Dallas, they will pick one and consolidate. They won't keep Chicago and Detroit, they will pick one and consolidate. The assets will be used to create a true national airline that will within 2 years fly from Hawaii to Europe. Then within a decade, a wide body order as well.
Here is the dirty little secret. All the national carriers make more money selling credit cards than they do flying airplanes. You can't sell credit cards with an east coast route map and another random pacific route map that doesn't connect with your current route map. jB needs a true route network capable of becoming what the big airlines really are which are banks.
Alaska has already demonstrated the problem with buying Hawaiian and it's that you have to keep both products to make it work. Nobody except people from Hawaii and the pac northwest will be buying Alaska branded credit cards.
jetblue buying Hawaiian right now, would just be stupid, and honestly Alaska buying Hawaiian is a desperate move to try and gain a relevant market share. JetBlue AK and Hawaiian merging would have been the best scenario, but even then it would have been jb/ak first and then HA later. There is still a really good chance the two new entities end up merged in the not to distant future.
also these "50 big boats" you're talking about are really just 19 old 717's(that need replaced) 18 321's and 24 330's half of which are leased and pretty much all slated to go away with the 787 order.
Here is the dirty little secret. All the national carriers make more money selling credit cards than they do flying airplanes. You can't sell credit cards with an east coast route map and another random pacific route map that doesn't connect with your current route map. jB needs a true route network capable of becoming what the big airlines really are which are banks.
Alaska has already demonstrated the problem with buying Hawaiian and it's that you have to keep both products to make it work. Nobody except people from Hawaii and the pac northwest will be buying Alaska branded credit cards.
jetblue buying Hawaiian right now, would just be stupid, and honestly Alaska buying Hawaiian is a desperate move to try and gain a relevant market share. JetBlue AK and Hawaiian merging would have been the best scenario, but even then it would have been jb/ak first and then HA later. There is still a really good chance the two new entities end up merged in the not to distant future.
also these "50 big boats" you're talking about are really just 19 old 717's(that need replaced) 18 321's and 24 330's half of which are leased and pretty much all slated to go away with the 787 order.
The barbell approach to an airline network doesn't work.
An international airline without domestic feed doesn't work. And if anyone states, 'but, but Hawaiian..' has no clue why they're able to make international work for them. And has likely never been to Hawaii to see all of the Asian tourists that absolutely love visiting the islands. And even at that, Hawaiian is a balance sheet train wreck.
NK is B6's BEST available dance partner, like it or not. She's ugly, rude, inbred, illiterate, has no manners, and has no sense of style (yellow - seriously?) but she's B6's best available dance partner. Deal with it. And bring a bag for the late night tryst.
Me? I'm only here for the money to be made off of NK stock/merger. If any of you happen to be in the Boston courtroom on Tuesday, say 'Hi, azzhole' to me.
12-04-2023, 05:04 AM
#306
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
The Hawaiian route map is absolutely incompatible with a standalone JB. Having a Hawaiian and pacific route structure makes zero sense with a stand alone jetblue route structure. There is no Midwest or west coast presence to feed Hawaii and there is no westcoast base you would gain with Hawaiian. There was also no orders at either company capable of building a national network to feed it.
The merger should have always been AK/JB and THEN HA, but neither management team could get their egos out of the way to decide who would run it.
I would much rather be in jetblues position with a combined NK fully serving 80% of the us population, trying to expand into the remaining 20%, rather than being a combined ak/ha and still not meaningfully serving the east coast, with limited narrow bodies orders trying to expand east.
The merger should have always been AK/JB and THEN HA, but neither management team could get their egos out of the way to decide who would run it.
I would much rather be in jetblues position with a combined NK fully serving 80% of the us population, trying to expand into the remaining 20%, rather than being a combined ak/ha and still not meaningfully serving the east coast, with limited narrow bodies orders trying to expand east.
I'm not sure yet if JB will close and consolidate the bases you say, depends on how they decide to serve those cities close together. JB won't have the networks in either one of them to operate a connecting hub, and JB generally doesn't really operate as a connecting hub airline. Just as they serve multiple cities in NYC, multiple cities in FL, and potentially looking at serving/basing multiple cities in or near New England, they might well serve/base multiple cities in TX and the Midwest. Since they are primarily trying to serve O&D traffic point to point in major catchment areas, DFW/IAH and ORD/DTW serve entirely separate catchment areas with zero overlap, and I lean more towards keeping them. But I was wrong that one time before.
I do expect a new middle of the country connecting hub, which would be JB's first connecting hub. But will also serve the local market as an O&D point to point airline, but with flight times banked for connections.
Otherwise fully agree, just adding HA to the current JB would be a bad idea.
12-04-2023, 09:21 AM
#307
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Posts: 770
I agree. I think these peeps are getting all frazzled only because "widebody flying". It's 61 planes and a base in HNL vs 200 planes, good size order book, and several additional bases. Which one seems like a better deal to become a national player while we spool up our transatlantic flying? B6NK merger also significantly increases QOL for a lot of people by them being able to live in one of those bases. I bet if there was no widebody and we were looking at 61 321s, the story would be different.
We argue how JB needs to get out of the northeast and now some think that 61 planes and 787s are going to do that? This is why we should just stay in our lanes and fly planes.
What we are doing now is the better way to go. If Hawaiian was to still be available to purchase afterwards then that would be a very nice addition. Then again, after the B6NK merger dust settles, instead of buying HA to go through another merger (albeit smaller), we can use that money to make widebody orders. I believe that is what's going to happen, probably 6-9 yrs from now. The problem is some folks here at B6 would be retired already. So this convo for some is FOMO. Good thing we don't get a say in this
We argue how JB needs to get out of the northeast and now some think that 61 planes and 787s are going to do that? This is why we should just stay in our lanes and fly planes.
What we are doing now is the better way to go. If Hawaiian was to still be available to purchase afterwards then that would be a very nice addition. Then again, after the B6NK merger dust settles, instead of buying HA to go through another merger (albeit smaller), we can use that money to make widebody orders. I believe that is what's going to happen, probably 6-9 yrs from now. The problem is some folks here at B6 would be retired already. So this convo for some is FOMO. Good thing we don't get a say in this
Buying HA you get Hawaii.
Even with the coveted widebodies it's not as though those planes can immediately be redeployed to transatlantic or Deep South America without giving up market share to Hawaii. In the short term, B6 would be sacrificing the opportunity to bolster their domestic route coverage gambling on connecting their predominantly east coast operation to Hawaii.
12-04-2023, 09:33 AM
#308
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,551
Have to agree with your two posts. NK also delivers JB it's first very high-market-share hub.
I'm not sure yet if JB will close and consolidate the bases you say, depends on how they decide to serve those cities close together. JB won't have the networks in either one of them to operate a connecting hub, and JB generally doesn't really operate as a connecting hub airline. Just as they serve multiple cities in NYC, multiple cities in FL, and potentially looking at serving/basing multiple cities in or near New England, they might well serve/base multiple cities in TX and the Midwest. Since they are primarily trying to serve O&D traffic point to point in major catchment areas, DFW/IAH and ORD/DTW serve entirely separate catchment areas with zero overlap, and I lean more towards keeping them. But I was wrong that one time before.
I do expect a new middle of the country connecting hub, which would be JB's first connecting hub. But will also serve the local market as an O&D point to point airline, but with flight times banked for connections.
Otherwise fully agree, just adding HA to the current JB would be a bad idea.
I'm not sure yet if JB will close and consolidate the bases you say, depends on how they decide to serve those cities close together. JB won't have the networks in either one of them to operate a connecting hub, and JB generally doesn't really operate as a connecting hub airline. Just as they serve multiple cities in NYC, multiple cities in FL, and potentially looking at serving/basing multiple cities in or near New England, they might well serve/base multiple cities in TX and the Midwest. Since they are primarily trying to serve O&D traffic point to point in major catchment areas, DFW/IAH and ORD/DTW serve entirely separate catchment areas with zero overlap, and I lean more towards keeping them. But I was wrong that one time before.
I do expect a new middle of the country connecting hub, which would be JB's first connecting hub. But will also serve the local market as an O&D point to point airline, but with flight times banked for connections.
Otherwise fully agree, just adding HA to the current JB would be a bad idea.
12-04-2023, 10:28 AM
#309
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Position: Da Bus, Left
Posts: 1,549
Keeping both bases would be a stretch, however, you can't proclaim yourself to be a bigger competitor to the Big 4 and retreat from those markets in 2 of the largest and fastest growing metro areas....
12-04-2023, 10:33 AM
#310
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
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