In the courtroom.
11-27-2023, 11:36 AM
#251
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,522
Only one witness today; Nicholas Hill a PhD economist. Here's a webpage on him: https://www.bateswhite.com/people-Nicholas-Hill.html
Talked a lot of economic details that covered economics/modeling and market impacts. I was able to follow it but I won't go too deep on details.
The Judge asked several questions for his personal clarification.
Dr Hill testified that Jetblue has a higher impact on lowering fares than Spirit. Also testified that Jetblue entering markets increases passenger traffic more than Spirit entering markets.
Most of Dr Hill's testimony refuted a DOJ expert's testimony ... Dr Gowrishankaran. https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople...gowrisankaran/
Dr Gowrishankaran testified last Monday or Tuesday; I was unable to attend but reports indicate that he didn't do well as an expert witness.
I was very impressed with Dr Hill. He shredded Dr G's (I'm not spelling that again) testimony and report.
Cross examination by DOJ of Dr Hill: I felt Dr Hill did fine in cross; no blows landed by DOJ. I sat next to a guy who does analysis for investors. Here's a clip on him talking about the merger a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Mr Cohen used to be on the fence about the merger; he now leans toward it passing. He's now in the camp that Jetblue is winning the case. Here's his company's website: https://mdcfinancial.com/?gclid=EAIa...SAAEgIgU_D_BwE
The schedule is now changing. Court sessions on Tues, Thurs and next Tues will be closing arguments.
This Fri and next Mon were cancelled. ... as of right now.
I expect a ruling around the 11th in favor of the merger.
Talked a lot of economic details that covered economics/modeling and market impacts. I was able to follow it but I won't go too deep on details.
The Judge asked several questions for his personal clarification.
Dr Hill testified that Jetblue has a higher impact on lowering fares than Spirit. Also testified that Jetblue entering markets increases passenger traffic more than Spirit entering markets.
Most of Dr Hill's testimony refuted a DOJ expert's testimony ... Dr Gowrishankaran. https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople...gowrisankaran/
Dr Gowrishankaran testified last Monday or Tuesday; I was unable to attend but reports indicate that he didn't do well as an expert witness.
I was very impressed with Dr Hill. He shredded Dr G's (I'm not spelling that again) testimony and report.
Cross examination by DOJ of Dr Hill: I felt Dr Hill did fine in cross; no blows landed by DOJ. I sat next to a guy who does analysis for investors. Here's a clip on him talking about the merger a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Mr Cohen used to be on the fence about the merger; he now leans toward it passing. He's now in the camp that Jetblue is winning the case. Here's his company's website: https://mdcfinancial.com/?gclid=EAIa...SAAEgIgU_D_BwE
The schedule is now changing. Court sessions on Tues, Thurs and next Tues will be closing arguments.
This Fri and next Mon were cancelled. ... as of right now.
I expect a ruling around the 11th in favor of the merger.
and thanks for the update
11-27-2023, 11:55 AM
#253
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2016
Posts: 931
Only one witness today; Nicholas Hill a PhD economist. Here's a webpage on him: https://www.bateswhite.com/people-Nicholas-Hill.html
Talked a lot of economic details that covered economics/modeling and market impacts. I was able to follow it but I won't go too deep on details.
The Judge asked several questions for his personal clarification.
Dr Hill testified that Jetblue has a higher impact on lowering fares than Spirit. Also testified that Jetblue entering markets increases passenger traffic more than Spirit entering markets.
Most of Dr Hill's testimony refuted a DOJ expert's testimony ... Dr Gowrishankaran. https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople...gowrisankaran/
Dr Gowrishankaran testified last Monday or Tuesday; I was unable to attend but reports indicate that he didn't do well as an expert witness.
I was very impressed with Dr Hill. He shredded Dr G's (I'm not spelling that again) testimony and report.
Cross examination by DOJ of Dr Hill: I felt Dr Hill did fine in cross; no blows landed by DOJ. I sat next to a guy who does analysis for investors. Here's a clip on him talking about the merger a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Mr Cohen used to be on the fence about the merger; he now leans toward it passing. He's now in the camp that Jetblue is winning the case. Here's his company's website: https://mdcfinancial.com/?gclid=EAIa...SAAEgIgU_D_BwE
The schedule is now changing. Court sessions on Tues, Thurs and next Tues will be closing arguments.
This Fri and next Mon were cancelled. ... as of right now.
I expect a ruling around the 11th in favor of the merger.
Talked a lot of economic details that covered economics/modeling and market impacts. I was able to follow it but I won't go too deep on details.
The Judge asked several questions for his personal clarification.
Dr Hill testified that Jetblue has a higher impact on lowering fares than Spirit. Also testified that Jetblue entering markets increases passenger traffic more than Spirit entering markets.
Most of Dr Hill's testimony refuted a DOJ expert's testimony ... Dr Gowrishankaran. https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople...gowrisankaran/
Dr Gowrishankaran testified last Monday or Tuesday; I was unable to attend but reports indicate that he didn't do well as an expert witness.
I was very impressed with Dr Hill. He shredded Dr G's (I'm not spelling that again) testimony and report.
Cross examination by DOJ of Dr Hill: I felt Dr Hill did fine in cross; no blows landed by DOJ. I sat next to a guy who does analysis for investors. Here's a clip on him talking about the merger a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Mr Cohen used to be on the fence about the merger; he now leans toward it passing. He's now in the camp that Jetblue is winning the case. Here's his company's website: https://mdcfinancial.com/?gclid=EAIa...SAAEgIgU_D_BwE
The schedule is now changing. Court sessions on Tues, Thurs and next Tues will be closing arguments.
This Fri and next Mon were cancelled. ... as of right now.
I expect a ruling around the 11th in favor of the merger.
11-27-2023, 12:13 PM
#254
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2019
Posts: 246
Are the schedule changes an indicator on how this is playing out? (in favor of or not)
11-27-2023, 12:18 PM
#255
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
No, Wednesdays appear to be open all the time on Judge Young's schedule.
Yes, looks like JBLU defense will wrap on Thurs.
Closing arguments on Tues the 5th.
I'll be there tomorrow. I'll be wearing a red polo shirt and blue Columbia jack, for anyone else attending.
Closing arguments on Tues the 5th.
I'll be there tomorrow. I'll be wearing a red polo shirt and blue Columbia jack, for anyone else attending.
11-27-2023, 01:14 PM
#257
On Reserve
Joined APC: Oct 2022
Posts: 21
Only one witness today; Nicholas Hill a PhD economist. Here's a webpage on him: https://www.bateswhite.com/people-Nicholas-Hill.html
Talked a lot of economic details that covered economics/modeling and market impacts. I was able to follow it but I won't go too deep on details.
The Judge asked several questions for his personal clarification.
Dr Hill testified that Jetblue has a higher impact on lowering fares than Spirit. Also testified that Jetblue entering markets increases passenger traffic more than Spirit entering markets.
Most of Dr Hill's testimony refuted a DOJ expert's testimony ... Dr Gowrishankaran. https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople/gautam-gowrisankaran/
Dr Gowrishankaran testified last Monday or Tuesday; I was unable to attend but reports indicate that he didn't do well as an expert witness.
I was very impressed with Dr Hill. He shredded Dr G's (I'm not spelling that again) testimony and report.
Cross examination by DOJ of Dr Hill: I felt Dr Hill did fine in cross; no blows landed by DOJ. I sat next to a guy who does analysis for investors. Here's a clip on him talking about the merger a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Mr Cohen used to be on the fence about the merger; he now leans toward it passing. He's now in the camp that Jetblue is winning the case. Here's his company's website: https://mdcfinancial.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI2LiX9-vkggMVi1BHAR2sLAdPEAAYASAAEgIgU_D_BwE
The schedule is now changing. Court sessions on Tues, Thurs and next Tues will be closing arguments.
This Fri and next Mon were cancelled. ... as of right now.
I expect a ruling around the 11th in favor of the merger.
Talked a lot of economic details that covered economics/modeling and market impacts. I was able to follow it but I won't go too deep on details.
The Judge asked several questions for his personal clarification.
Dr Hill testified that Jetblue has a higher impact on lowering fares than Spirit. Also testified that Jetblue entering markets increases passenger traffic more than Spirit entering markets.
Most of Dr Hill's testimony refuted a DOJ expert's testimony ... Dr Gowrishankaran. https://econ.columbia.edu/econpeople/gautam-gowrisankaran/
Dr Gowrishankaran testified last Monday or Tuesday; I was unable to attend but reports indicate that he didn't do well as an expert witness.
I was very impressed with Dr Hill. He shredded Dr G's (I'm not spelling that again) testimony and report.
Cross examination by DOJ of Dr Hill: I felt Dr Hill did fine in cross; no blows landed by DOJ. I sat next to a guy who does analysis for investors. Here's a clip on him talking about the merger a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Mr Cohen used to be on the fence about the merger; he now leans toward it passing. He's now in the camp that Jetblue is winning the case. Here's his company's website: https://mdcfinancial.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI2LiX9-vkggMVi1BHAR2sLAdPEAAYASAAEgIgU_D_BwE
The schedule is now changing. Court sessions on Tues, Thurs and next Tues will be closing arguments.
This Fri and next Mon were cancelled. ... as of right now.
I expect a ruling around the 11th in favor of the merger.
11-28-2023, 05:19 PM
#258
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2019
Posts: 170
11-29-2023, 04:13 AM
#259
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
It was a neutral day on Tuesday. No winner on either side.
I'm going to copy TPGcirrus' post from stocktwits. I have nothing to add; his writeup is excellent.
JetBlue started off by calling Andrew Nocella to the stand. He is the Chief Commercial Officer for United Airlines. He handles what type of aircraft they fly, where they fly, and almost anything revenue related. They started by asking a bit about him and his past, then proceeded to ask about the United NEXT program. This is their purchase of around 800 aircraft to modernize their fleet. This purchase will allow them to expand their basic economy offering and sell more basic economy seats. They want this so they can appeal to consumers of all price points. He stated that United will almost always price match competitors on their basic economy fare, including Spirit, Frontier etc…. They offer this even on routes not served by ULCC’s. Q3 of 2023 12% of their passengers were basic economy passengers. The NEXT purchase should allow them to grow this number. JetBlue then asked them about their presence in Florida, which they are growing by 20%.
My takeaway from this is to show that there still will be many seats available for price conscious consumers even from the big guys. I am guessing that this is what JB was trying to show. On cross the DOJ just asked some questions about how they determine the amount of basic economy seats etc…. And it was all dynamic pricing based on demand etc….
Next up was Richard Scheff. He worked at Delta in the past in Network planning and helped develop a fleet optimization program for APG. He was hired by JB and Spirit to see if a combined airline would be able to utilize optimization of the fleet. All of his analysis was done using 2019 full year data. His opinion is that JB and Spirit combined would increase capacity (measured by seat departures) even after seat changes reducing the number of seats on Spirit aircraft. A lot of time was spent with this witness talking about why/how they would do this.
Scheff testified that the combined fleet of JB+Spirit could fly the same current schedule with fewer airplanes, allowing for more free airplanes to fly other routes increasing capacity. He estimated the ability to free ~3.6 million seats/yr that could be allocated elsewhere. He didn’t do a tremendous job of explaining that this is the MOST seats, and in all likelihood it would be less than that… but the opportunity is there to actually raise the number of seats available. The DOJ prodded on this later basically saying that it should be ignored since JB and Spirit never actually said they would follow his suggestions 100%. He discusses how spirit seat density of 228 seats vs JB 200 seats reduces the range of their AC limiting the distances they can fly thus limiting their potential for certain routes.
Big points being that Spirit has bigger seasonality and day of week differences in their flying schedule than JB does as JB attracts more business customers than Spirit due to their product offering. This would allow JB to move aircraft to more business oriented markets during slower leisure travel times (think Tues/Weds and off season for leisure travel). During this testimony the DOJ objected to multiple things and I believe judge young overruled all of them, and my personal opinion was that he was kind of annoyed by the DOJ.
Author was tpgcirrus.
I'm going to copy TPGcirrus' post from stocktwits. I have nothing to add; his writeup is excellent.
JetBlue started off by calling Andrew Nocella to the stand. He is the Chief Commercial Officer for United Airlines. He handles what type of aircraft they fly, where they fly, and almost anything revenue related. They started by asking a bit about him and his past, then proceeded to ask about the United NEXT program. This is their purchase of around 800 aircraft to modernize their fleet. This purchase will allow them to expand their basic economy offering and sell more basic economy seats. They want this so they can appeal to consumers of all price points. He stated that United will almost always price match competitors on their basic economy fare, including Spirit, Frontier etc…. They offer this even on routes not served by ULCC’s. Q3 of 2023 12% of their passengers were basic economy passengers. The NEXT purchase should allow them to grow this number. JetBlue then asked them about their presence in Florida, which they are growing by 20%.
My takeaway from this is to show that there still will be many seats available for price conscious consumers even from the big guys. I am guessing that this is what JB was trying to show. On cross the DOJ just asked some questions about how they determine the amount of basic economy seats etc…. And it was all dynamic pricing based on demand etc….
Next up was Richard Scheff. He worked at Delta in the past in Network planning and helped develop a fleet optimization program for APG. He was hired by JB and Spirit to see if a combined airline would be able to utilize optimization of the fleet. All of his analysis was done using 2019 full year data. His opinion is that JB and Spirit combined would increase capacity (measured by seat departures) even after seat changes reducing the number of seats on Spirit aircraft. A lot of time was spent with this witness talking about why/how they would do this.
Scheff testified that the combined fleet of JB+Spirit could fly the same current schedule with fewer airplanes, allowing for more free airplanes to fly other routes increasing capacity. He estimated the ability to free ~3.6 million seats/yr that could be allocated elsewhere. He didn’t do a tremendous job of explaining that this is the MOST seats, and in all likelihood it would be less than that… but the opportunity is there to actually raise the number of seats available. The DOJ prodded on this later basically saying that it should be ignored since JB and Spirit never actually said they would follow his suggestions 100%. He discusses how spirit seat density of 228 seats vs JB 200 seats reduces the range of their AC limiting the distances they can fly thus limiting their potential for certain routes.
Big points being that Spirit has bigger seasonality and day of week differences in their flying schedule than JB does as JB attracts more business customers than Spirit due to their product offering. This would allow JB to move aircraft to more business oriented markets during slower leisure travel times (think Tues/Weds and off season for leisure travel). During this testimony the DOJ objected to multiple things and I believe judge young overruled all of them, and my personal opinion was that he was kind of annoyed by the DOJ.
Author was tpgcirrus.
11-29-2023, 07:18 AM
#260
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2019
Posts: 170
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