310god

I 100% agree with you. I don't understand why so many pilots are pessimistic about this merger. I guess its easy to be if you get wrapped up in all the fake theroy nonsense. The truth is, nobody knows what the outcome will be, but it is definitely in B6's favor if you just look a precedent and the dissolution of the NEA alone. I think too many pilots just have WAY too much time on their hands and end up coming to these ridiculous conclusions because all of a sudden they are wallstreet experts. These are not the end of times, not even close. We just fly the metal.

Bluedriver

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78

Some good trial analysis.

DontCallMeCindy

The poster’s question implied that they will only be staying at their current employer if the merger is approved—failing to see how it’s short-sighted to recommend they go ahead and update logbooks/apps, versus placing all of their future QOL/financial goals in the hands of a court/govt agency/transaction that is nowhere close to a guarantee at this point.

I would call my advice to the OP foresight—not short-sighted. Pinning one’s career decisions on the machinations of corporate entities in this industry is a recipe for disappointment…it’s smarter to be proactive and always ready for anything.

I’m biased though, bc I believe the odds of JB encountering financial difficulty that leads to job loss or degradation of QOL/pay here in the next decade is higher if the transaction goes through, versus lower. My advice to the OP is based on that.

If JB had instead leveraged less debt to lease widebodies for the transatlantic expansion, and repurposed the LRs to fortify the fleet count, I would most certainly be telling the OP to wait that out. But waiting to see if we’re buying a ULCC with a bunch of broken airplanes and massive, costly multi-year product and cabin refitting program (not to mention training costs)?

CincoDeMayo

This is the first "bump" in the career for many guys. Wrapping your head around the notion that this career can change in a second, takes more than a second for people to grasp. Call it the stages of grief, but this is heavy "fight or flight" instincts kicking in for some first timers. Many of us have been here before a few times, so when we see airlines losing money, possible Ch11, furloughs, etc...well, its another day that ends in "y" for us.

jetpilot87

Good question at 55:00ish - why are the odds still only 50/50 if its seemingly going well for JetBlue. "There has been no testimony to date that refutes that there is a customer that will be hurt by this." Its just not many people, not in many markets.

310god

I suppose I hadn't really thought of it that way. I do suppose that most pilots are experiencing this for the first time. But if I am being completely honest, so am I. But I have never been the knee-jerk reactionary type of guy. Once you're on at a major that's big (3,000+ pilots) and you're happy with your base and compensation, I feel the best thing you can do for your career is to continue your seniority and stick it out. Obviously many people disagree, and thats great! Go ahead and build up my seniority for me by leaving. The big 3 will truly hire until they furlough. I'm sure Airtran pilots didn't think they'd be flying for SW, which was arguably one of the best places to be at that period in time. And I'm sure Fedex guys didn't think they'd be told to take a hike back to a regional. The grass is always greener until it isn't. I hope everyone finds success and solice in their career choices, but people seriously need to calm the heck down.

I listen to my captains who have been around the block and so far their advice has saved me from some disastrous career moves. History repeats itself and there's no reason to think that current times are immune to that just because the variables are changed.

And I forgot to quote this, but this is the message I was agreeing to in my previous comment: "what a short sighted attitude. There is a lot to be gained from a sucessful merger, not the least of which is keeping your current seniority at the 5th largest domestic airline.

It is a gamble sure, but it could pay off massively. If a sucessful merger is more fortuitous than leaving for another carrier for someone, it makes perfect sense to wait and see the outcome of a trial. there is a soft deadline of the end of the year so its not like you would have to wait long. And if they win the trial there is a very good chance they go through with the merger in the long run regardless of additional hurdles."

CincoDeMayo

This might be your first experience with this kind of situation, but your words speak of someone who is ready to handle it and the curveballs this career will throw at you. Your mindset is the exact one youll need to stomach the bad times.

Andy

Back to the courtroom proceedings. I attended today. Notes:

These are all witnesses that the DOJ called.
Brian Friedman, JBLU Director of Route Planning. Nothing of note during his testimony.

Barry Biffle, F9 CEO
When questioned by DOJ about why ULCCs were losing money, Biffle's response was 'supply and demand'. Several of us in the gallery laughed at that one.
He further explained that the ULCC market is saturated and customers have tapered off.
Questions about the LGA slots/gates that F9 would acquire. Not much to say there; Biffle stated that they fill the void quickly.
A lot of questions on the market - as in what would F9 do if NK was bought by B6 and those routes disappeared. 'Scavengers would clean up the carcass within weeks'. The scavengers being F9, G4, Avelo, Breeze. (A lot of laughter in the courtroom at his response)

Judge asked Biffle: 'How well would you be able to serve your existing routes if this merger went through'? Answer: may pare back less profitable routes but would not be a problem.

Last witness: Drew Wells, G4 Senior VP and Chief Revenue Officer.
Basically stated the same stuff as Biffle ... that G4 wouldn't have a problem with FLL, BOS, and EWR assets they're buying and would redeploy and/or expand faster to fill any voids left by NK.


Overall, the impression was that today went in favor of the merger being approved.


One side comment: I counted 20 DOJ attornies/assistants in the courtroom. That doesn't include the other DOJ emplyees that are a couple of floors higher who are busy prepping documents.
JBLU's legal team looke like it was half the size of the DOJ.

I won't be back in court until after Thanksgiving.

I can see why NK stock popped today and would expect a short covering rally tomorrow, barring any mistakes by the JBLU legal team.

DrSmacFum

posts like these and the tweets make it hard for me to understand a 50/50 coin toss scoresheet. But thank you!

Doing the lords work with this 1

CincoDeMayo

Thank you for the report.

Why in the world would the DOJ call competing ULCCs to the stand and basically ask them "Would you have any issues if the largest ULCC were to go away and we divided up some of their profitable slots amongnst you?"

Seems to reaffirm the overridng theory that divestments are the key, they will be filled by ULCCs and quickly, and that the ULCC market is actually oversaturated, too may cheap seats in the market. More stretgth for the merger being approved.