JetBlue bids for Spirit Airlines
04-12-2022, 07:44 AM
#351
Covfefe
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,001
Objectively that is the case looking only at CBAs, but when you throw in the fact that the business model they would integrate into is more of a full service airline attempting to gain a global presence, which will likely get widebodies, it’s even more the case. Career expectations wise of NK pilots have about a zero percent chance of getting widebodies as is or with an F9 merger. For SLI arbitration purposes, same goes for B6 pilots since there’s none currently on order. But the LR/XLRs being delivered are/were basically going to be the litmus test for a widebody order. If the B6/NK merger is approved, I doubt the NEA continues, then jetblue is a 8000+ pilot group, with more LR data, and a WB order will likely be placed imo. And all the NK guys sliding ahead of all the B6 guys will be the beneficiaries of that. As it is today, I’d retire around #100. Assuming B6’s current trajectory, I’d be sitting pretty for a long time, and if/when a WB order ever came, I’d likely be able to benefit from it greatly, either by getting WB rates or by getting a lot more senior with guys above me moving over. That’s going to get absolutely blown up even with a 50:50 or 60:40 SLI, and, depending on how it goes, I may never be as senior as I would if we stayed B6 pure. From a career expectations standpoint on paper, none of that is factored into an SLI, but has a much greater than 0 probability of happening.
I’m not bent out of shape about how (I think) this would go, and I hope a forced JCBA, new bases, more orders, a good pilot group, etc would have a good benefit to the combined entity that would make up for/more than make up for my lost seniority. But the career expectations for NK pilots are a lot better with this merger than with F9 merger (ie they get a lot more guys behind them with a better career outlook), and the B6 career expectations fall with regard to getting a lot more younger guys becoming senior to them. I think that’s why we see these arguments online a lot more than we saw them with the NK/F9 announcement. I think an AS/B6 SLI would be a lot more amicable, like I also think an NK/F9 SLI would be. We are all biased and try to justify why we should be better off. At the end of the day though, we are all just along for the ride and need to make the best of whatever happens and be good to each other, with or without this merger.
04-12-2022, 07:46 AM
#352
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,410
even a 50/50 or 60/40 SLI would be a huge windfall for spirit guys. Guys have left spirit for jetblue over the years. It’s happened even since covid. I have never heard of any jetblue guy leaving for spirit (not saying it’s never happened, but if it has, it’s exceedingly rare). There’s a reason for that. So now spirit guys will transport really good seniority, even if they lose a little with DOH factored in, to what is considered by most a better airline/career.
Objectively that is the case looking only at CBAs, but when you throw in the fact that the business model they would integrate into is more of a full service airline attempting to gain a global presence, which will likely get widebodies, it’s even more the case. Career expectations wise of NK pilots have about a zero percent chance of getting widebodies as is or with an F9 merger. For SLI arbitration purposes, same goes for B6 pilots since there’s none currently on order. But the LR/XLRs being delivered are/were basically going to be the litmus test for a widebody order. If the B6/NK merger is approved, I doubt the NEA continues, then jetblue is a 8000+ pilot group, with more LR data, and a WB order will likely be placed imo. And all the NK guys sliding ahead of all the B6 guys will be the beneficiaries of that. As it is today, I’d retire around #100. Assuming B6’s current trajectory, I’d be sitting pretty for a long time, and if/when a WB order ever came, I’d likely be able to benefit from it greatly, either by getting WB rates or by getting a lot more senior with guys above me moving over. That’s going to get absolutely blown up even with a 50:50 or 60:40 SLI, and, depending on how it goes, I may never be as senior as I would if we stayed B6 pure. From a career expectations standpoint on paper, none of that is factored into an SLI, but has a much greater than 0 probability of happening.
I’m not bent out of shape about how (I think) this would go, and I hope a forced JCBA, new bases, more orders, a good pilot group, etc would have a good benefit to the combined entity that would make up for/more than make up for my lost seniority. But the career expectations for NK pilots are a lot better with this merger than with F9 merger (ie they get a lot more guys behind them with a better career outlook), and the B6 career expectations fall with regard to getting a lot more younger guys becoming senior to them. I think that’s why we see these arguments online a lot more than we saw them with the NK/F9 announcement. I think an AS/B6 SLI would be a lot more amicable, like I also think an NK/F9 SLI would be. We are all biased and try to justify why we should be better off. At the end of the day though, we are all just along for the ride and need to make the best of whatever happens and be good to each other, with or without this merger.
Objectively that is the case looking only at CBAs, but when you throw in the fact that the business model they would integrate into is more of a full service airline attempting to gain a global presence, which will likely get widebodies, it’s even more the case. Career expectations wise of NK pilots have about a zero percent chance of getting widebodies as is or with an F9 merger. For SLI arbitration purposes, same goes for B6 pilots since there’s none currently on order. But the LR/XLRs being delivered are/were basically going to be the litmus test for a widebody order. If the B6/NK merger is approved, I doubt the NEA continues, then jetblue is a 8000+ pilot group, with more LR data, and a WB order will likely be placed imo. And all the NK guys sliding ahead of all the B6 guys will be the beneficiaries of that. As it is today, I’d retire around #100. Assuming B6’s current trajectory, I’d be sitting pretty for a long time, and if/when a WB order ever came, I’d likely be able to benefit from it greatly, either by getting WB rates or by getting a lot more senior with guys above me moving over. That’s going to get absolutely blown up even with a 50:50 or 60:40 SLI, and, depending on how it goes, I may never be as senior as I would if we stayed B6 pure. From a career expectations standpoint on paper, none of that is factored into an SLI, but has a much greater than 0 probability of happening.
I’m not bent out of shape about how (I think) this would go, and I hope a forced JCBA, new bases, more orders, a good pilot group, etc would have a good benefit to the combined entity that would make up for/more than make up for my lost seniority. But the career expectations for NK pilots are a lot better with this merger than with F9 merger (ie they get a lot more guys behind them with a better career outlook), and the B6 career expectations fall with regard to getting a lot more younger guys becoming senior to them. I think that’s why we see these arguments online a lot more than we saw them with the NK/F9 announcement. I think an AS/B6 SLI would be a lot more amicable, like I also think an NK/F9 SLI would be. We are all biased and try to justify why we should be better off. At the end of the day though, we are all just along for the ride and need to make the best of whatever happens and be good to each other, with or without this merger.
04-12-2022, 08:00 AM
#353
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,905
04-12-2022, 08:08 AM
#354
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2021
Posts: 47
https://www.flightglobal.com/iata-jetblue-looks-to-widebody-operations-from-2015/105645.article
https://centreforaviation.com/news/jetblue-considers-widebody-aircraft-for-expansion-58415
JetBlue has had widebodies "right around the corner" for well over a decade lol
https://centreforaviation.com/news/jetblue-considers-widebody-aircraft-for-expansion-58415
JetBlue has had widebodies "right around the corner" for well over a decade lol
04-12-2022, 10:14 AM
#355
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Position: Yellow Bus
Posts: 355
i get that. But neither of us pilots want this merger. We all wanted to stay happy at our little airlines with our current list. However. This may not be the case. These airlines might be thrust together and we have to find the best solution for fairness. Which would be relative. I’m 42% of spirit after 5+ years. Why should I fall back to 49% with DOH. I would expect to be around 42+\-1%. My expectations were to grow 150 planes fr what we have. Not grow by 300 but lose 90 E190 and dump the 320CEOs as B6 wants. That a net gain of prob 160-180 total. Much different then what I expected. So I do understand DOH. I get it. But the most fair to all pilots. Not just someone who wants to be #1 when they retire is to do relative up to about 70%. Then DOH after that. Some form of hybrid.
04-12-2022, 10:21 AM
#356
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,792
i get that. But neither of us pilots want this merger. We all wanted to stay happy at our little airlines with our current list. However. This may not be the case. These airlines might be thrust together and we have to find the best solution for fairness. Which would be relative. I’m 42% of spirit after 5+ years. Why should I fall back to 49% with DOH. I would expect to be around 42+\-1%. My expectations were to grow 150 planes fr what we have. Not grow by 300 but lose 90 E190 and dump the 320CEOs as B6 wants. That a net gain of prob 160-180 total. Much different then what I expected. So I do understand DOH. I get it. But the most fair to all pilots. Not just someone who wants to be #1 when they retire is to do relative up to about 70%. Then DOH after that. Some form of hybrid.
It just doesn’t matter, because both sides will make their best case and then the mediator(s) is(are) going to do whatever THEY believe to be best anyway.
The issue we need to work on is the JCBA.
04-12-2022, 10:26 AM
#357
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Position: Yellow Bus
Posts: 355
even a 50/50 or 60/40 SLI would be a huge windfall for spirit guys. Guys have left spirit for jetblue over the years. It’s happened even since covid. I have never heard of any jetblue guy leaving for spirit (not saying it’s never happened, but if it has, it’s exceedingly rare). There’s a reason for that. So now spirit guys will transport really good seniority, even if they lose a little with DOH factored in, to what is considered by most a better airline/career.
Objectively that is the case looking only at CBAs, but when you throw in the fact that the business model they would integrate into is more of a full service airline attempting to gain a global presence, which will likely get widebodies, it’s even more the case. Career expectations wise of NK pilots have about a zero percent chance of getting widebodies as is or with an F9 merger. For SLI arbitration purposes, same goes for B6 pilots since there’s none currently on order. But the LR/XLRs being delivered are/were basically going to be the litmus test for a widebody order. If the B6/NK merger is approved, I doubt the NEA continues, then jetblue is a 8000+ pilot group, with more LR data, and a WB order will likely be placed imo. And all the NK guys sliding ahead of all the B6 guys will be the beneficiaries of that. As it is today, I’d retire around #100. Assuming B6’s current trajectory, I’d be sitting pretty for a long time, and if/when a WB order ever came, I’d likely be able to benefit from it greatly, either by getting WB rates or by getting a lot more senior with guys above me moving over. That’s going to get absolutely blown up even with a 50:50 or 60:40 SLI, and, depending on how it goes, I may never be as senior as I would if we stayed B6 pure. From a career expectations standpoint on paper, none of that is factored into an SLI, but has a much greater than 0 probability of happening.
I’m not bent out of shape about how (I think) this would go, and I hope a forced JCBA, new bases, more orders, a good pilot group, etc would have a good benefit to the combined entity that would make up for/more than make up for my lost seniority. But the career expectations for NK pilots are a lot better with this merger than with F9 merger (ie they get a lot more guys behind them with a better career outlook), and the B6 career expectations fall with regard to getting a lot more younger guys becoming senior to them. I think that’s why we see these arguments online a lot more than we saw them with the NK/F9 announcement. I think an AS/B6 SLI would be a lot more amicable, like I also think an NK/F9 SLI would be. We are all biased and try to justify why we should be better off. At the end of the day though, we are all just along for the ride and need to make the best of whatever happens and be good to each other, with or without this merger.
Objectively that is the case looking only at CBAs, but when you throw in the fact that the business model they would integrate into is more of a full service airline attempting to gain a global presence, which will likely get widebodies, it’s even more the case. Career expectations wise of NK pilots have about a zero percent chance of getting widebodies as is or with an F9 merger. For SLI arbitration purposes, same goes for B6 pilots since there’s none currently on order. But the LR/XLRs being delivered are/were basically going to be the litmus test for a widebody order. If the B6/NK merger is approved, I doubt the NEA continues, then jetblue is a 8000+ pilot group, with more LR data, and a WB order will likely be placed imo. And all the NK guys sliding ahead of all the B6 guys will be the beneficiaries of that. As it is today, I’d retire around #100. Assuming B6’s current trajectory, I’d be sitting pretty for a long time, and if/when a WB order ever came, I’d likely be able to benefit from it greatly, either by getting WB rates or by getting a lot more senior with guys above me moving over. That’s going to get absolutely blown up even with a 50:50 or 60:40 SLI, and, depending on how it goes, I may never be as senior as I would if we stayed B6 pure. From a career expectations standpoint on paper, none of that is factored into an SLI, but has a much greater than 0 probability of happening.
I’m not bent out of shape about how (I think) this would go, and I hope a forced JCBA, new bases, more orders, a good pilot group, etc would have a good benefit to the combined entity that would make up for/more than make up for my lost seniority. But the career expectations for NK pilots are a lot better with this merger than with F9 merger (ie they get a lot more guys behind them with a better career outlook), and the B6 career expectations fall with regard to getting a lot more younger guys becoming senior to them. I think that’s why we see these arguments online a lot more than we saw them with the NK/F9 announcement. I think an AS/B6 SLI would be a lot more amicable, like I also think an NK/F9 SLI would be. We are all biased and try to justify why we should be better off. At the end of the day though, we are all just along for the ride and need to make the best of whatever happens and be good to each other, with or without this merger.
the growth is very different. Spirit has 150 on order. With no real plans to lose any. B6 in their investor report says they have 150ish on order but 90 E190 are gonna go bye bye. And the A320 CEO. Which I’m not sure how many B6 has. The net growth is <60 planes (correct me if I’m wrong). My expectation at spirit to grow 150 is to increase seniority quite a bit more ~1300/5400 (17 pilots/plane) or so in next 5 years. Growth and relative seniority gain (since we don’t have many retirement) expectations are very dif. Either way this shakes out. Hopefully we all keep our seats. And relative seniority. I’m sorry if you won’t be #1. And I’m sorry I won’t go from 42% to 24% in 5 years. But it is what it is. Make some good money while you can. Enjoy your time off. And have fun at work working with good peeps. Those are most important things. B6 guys are good people. Spirit guys are good people. However it shakes out. Remember. Pilots aren’t the enemy. Management is!!! And at least it’s not DAL,UAL, or AA
04-12-2022, 10:27 AM
#358
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Position: Yellow Bus
Posts: 355
agreed. We have some great things in our contract we won’t ever vote away. Drop to 0, red/green, etc . Plus. Inflation is gonna be prob 20% at best over last 3 years. So I’d hope for at least a 25% raise
04-12-2022, 10:45 AM
#359
SDQ Base Chief
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: 320 CA
Posts: 5,637
Agree 100%, everyone will be upset at the arbitration SLI results (at least that’s how you know it was done right). Instead let’s get a JCBA we can all be happy with.
04-12-2022, 10:48 AM
#360
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Position: Admiral
Posts: 726
the growth is very different. Spirit has 150 on order. With no real plans to lose any. B6 in their investor report says they have 150ish on order but 90 E190 are gonna go bye bye. And the A320 CEO. Which I’m not sure how many B6 has. The net growth is <60 planes (correct me if I’m wrong). My expectation at spirit to grow 150 is to increase seniority quite a bit more ~1300/5400 (17 pilots/plane) or so in next 5 years. Growth and relative seniority gain (since we don’t have many retirement) expectations are very dif. Either way this shakes out. Hopefully we all keep our seats. And relative seniority. I’m sorry if you won’t be #1. And I’m sorry I won’t go from 42% to 24% in 5 years. But it is what it is. Make some good money while you can. Enjoy your time off. And have fun at work working with good peeps. Those are most important things. B6 guys are good people. Spirit guys are good people. However it shakes out. Remember. Pilots aren’t the enemy. Management is!!! And at least it’s not DAL,UAL, or AA
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