GreenPatures

Others have rebutted the reliability comment, my buddy who flies them at Delta said they have had engine issues with them. Even without the issues it is having, the pricetag north of $90 million versus a paid for airplane....the economics of the 220 for interisland are chellenging to untenable to recoup that price unless a cheap lease. 717s won't last forever, however makes sense to use them until it costs more to keep them flying than to lease or buy a replacement, which, with current airplane demand and prices that will take awhile or the plane is out of life. That is why many were thinking (pre-merger) the A319...used ones available, not new, known quantity versus a new model, streamline type rating with HA 321s...but now that AS buying HA...my guess is 737. Not E175, too small to serve interisland passenger and cargo, would likely need way more planes and gates that don't exist.

FyrePilot

I agree. The aquisition changed the playing field on this. The 717s will be used as long as they can keep them flying. There will not be 319s, e195s, or 220s.

It will be Alaska 737s. Maybe maxes like southwest does and they will fly mainland and inter island.

Maybe Alaska will leave a few old 700s in HNL semi permanent to do exclusive interisland.

The bigger question is if there will be exclusive inter-island pilot group 5 years from now or if everyone will be doing west coast red eye trips with interisland on the inbetween days or flying Alaska routes on mainland in addition to Hawaii flying that goes very senior in their current pilot group.

Fakawat

Yup. Widebody's to the west coast are a thing of the past too. Lot's of changes on the horizon. I think we'll be lucky to keep 12 787's in Honolulu once the 330's are all returned or parked.

Rama

Some West Coast and Vegas widebody flights make sense because of the load factors. Ask the SEA commuters on HA.
Interisland flights run around 150 flights a day ( 19000 seats)from roughly 0500 until 2200 or so. Need a dedicated fleet to accomplish this with perhaps some other narrowbody flying a leg or two interisland as well as a pond crossing. There are surprising amount of interisland pax commuters due to the fact that hotels are expensive and it is cheaper to fly daily.

fostro

Agreed! AS is clear on a one-fleet model. If we are lucky maybe a few 787s out of HNL, puts me somewhere on the coast, hopefully in LA.

Just figured out "Fakawat", that is hilarious!

Unity...

FyrePilot

I agree for west coast wide bodies at slot restriction airports (LAS, LAX, SEA) so long as load factors stay up (doubtful with incoming recession).

San, Pdx, Phx, Smf, etc will all go to 737. Probably with frequency to compete with southwest. 321s will be sold off.

717s will be phased out for 737 inter island at whatever seat capacity and frequency is profitable. I doubt it will be same load capacity as today. I think HNL will be less of a hub for interisland as US tourists will be better off at a west coast hub to fly directly to whatever island their hotel is on., HNL sucks for hub anyways. Bad lounge and restaurant options. International will still need it as customs and hub but the international traffic is still down and is not coming back soon with weak Asia sector along with dying populations in Korea Japan and China.

The JFK, BOS, AUS need the longer range so I am sure some braniac upstairs will figure out if people will fill up the seats because they don’t want a 2 leg to Hawaii. So those probably stay on 330 or 787 for a while.

787s will stay in HNL to cover HND and whatever slots are profitable. Maybe ICN and SYD along with KIX and FUK at less frequency if the seats aren’t filling up. I would imagine an order for more 787s so SEA is the plan with more Asia slots if Alaska is serious on international expansion. They could go to Europe with 787 to compete with DL in SEA but Europe is already extremely slot restricted and it would be hard to get flights at major hubs controlled by DL codeshare (virgin at LHR and KLM/AF at Ams/cdg). Maybe one world alliance will help with that if Alaska manages to stay in one world with Hawaiian purchase

I am still waiting to hear something about the Amazon freight contract from Alaska. Surely they researched the contract when buying the Hawaiian. I just want to know if they keep it or try to get out of it and sell it to some carrier (ATSG, Atlas, or Sunny) that won’t fly it under same regs and pay less while wanting pilots to be based in CVG.

rickair7777

All reasonable. Gates and maybe even slots might favor keeping WB's on some routes, even if they'd prefer to use NB. SAN is getting some more gates but the big hubs are probably gate limited.

I'm sure they have a plan for Prime, probably various options, with Plan A being to unload it. Doubt they want to fight for scraps under Bezos' table on his terms. Every union person I've talked to has said the first order of business is getting rid of the cargo B scale, so that probably doesn't favor Prime either.

Rama

The widebody aircraft have the long range and much better/more first class seats available.
AS has to continue and adjust the long haul flying to grow in the future.

FyrePilot

While that is bad news, I am going to have to agree. The hawaiian freight certificate is worth money, I am sure Alaska will make the determinination of how much it is worth versus how much they could profit from Amazon contract. Judging by other freight carriers not making much through it (sunny), or flat out refusing to service it (fedex) I am not very hopeful.

Amazon chose hawaiian because of the timeline hawaiian could start it up. A case of right place at right time being 1 of 2 carriers that fly 330s in the US and Delta has no aspirations to get in the 100% freighter business unless it would pay big money (which I am sure Amazon will use its size/volume to prevent big profits to a separate company).

I am sure other cargo carriers are putting the 330 on their certificate (ATSG has locked up conversion slots already) Just a matter of time until Atlas, Amerijet, National, or Sunny gets the 330F on their certificate too and will offer a cheaper alternative (by paying pilots less) for Amazon to take advantage of.

It was said in another thread. There won't be room for 1200 pilots in HNL. When the interisland is cut back due for bigger planes and less frequency even less. Then cut the 321 type- it will be even less. Finally cut some of the augmented flights out by flying the 787 with 2 pilots like JAL and ANA do it on the Japan routes it will mean even less jobs for HNL. I don't think anyone will be jobless because pilots will be absorbed in Alaska to fly 737s. Where they will be based is another story (SFO commute might become really hard)

Only thing that is left to hope for is a JCBA that is on par with legacy and WN pilots to fly the 73. And when 90% of the pilot group and union is flying the 73, the widebody (and cargo if they keep it) pay and workrules will not be a priority.

Rama

Amazon contract is eight years. HA supplies crews and mx, Amazon supplies the aircraft, fuel and insurance.
It is hopefully a good deal for HA, no sense terminating it if it is positive cash flow and profit.