Combining with Alaska Airlines for a Stronger
12-14-2023, 06:39 PM
#201
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,286
All that said, none of us can really know at this point and I doubt even the AS head-shed knows for sure. But cautionary tale... in the last merger they said a bunch of stuff up front, maybe to appease the acquired labor, which they ultimately went back on. I do have a slightly elevated opinion of current AS management after covid and the last couple years, but be wary.
For the new Hawaiian people, some of the things we're talking about with regard to cutting non profitable routes and whatnot are like Los Angeles to Cancun.. always full, great route and layover, but the company said it's too competitive so it was cut. Orange County to Cabo... that flight is always full since rich people love Cabo.. company said it's too competitive with Southwest so they cut the route to give Skywest a few more San Jose CA flights out of Orange County. I've been here over 7 years now and it used to be something that would be bothersome, but now I just bid whatever is in the packet and don't think about the other behind the scenes stuff. LAX-Cuba was a good route, but they said it wasn't working so it was cut. We're currently starting the Banahamas and Guatemala City... if they don't work as planned they will be cut.
Management started putting E175's on some Southeast Alaska and said it was just trial runs for diversionary airports or something like that... now Horizon has an Anchorage base and does Alaska flying in the 175.
I don't think you should trust this management at the things they're telling you now... but you can trust them to make a profitable airline that you can finish your career at.
12-14-2023, 06:50 PM
#202
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 1,208
I can't stand listening to our management talk... they just sound so sleezy and fake to me. But I will admit that they run a tight ship and a profitable airline. They're good at what they do, even though they often times seem just so far removed from the rank and file employee.
For the new Hawaiian people, some of the things we're talking about with regard to cutting non profitable routes and whatnot are like Los Angeles to Cancun.. always full, great route and layover, but the company said it's too competitive so it was cut. Orange County to Cabo... that flight is always full since rich people love Cabo.. company said it's too competitive with Southwest so they cut the route to give Skywest a few more San Jose CA flights out of Orange County. I've been here over 7 years now and it used to be something that would be bothersome, but now I just bid whatever is in the packet and don't think about the other behind the scenes stuff. LAX-Cuba was a good route, but they said it wasn't working so it was cut. We're currently starting the Banahamas and Guatemala City... if they don't work as planned they will be cut.
Management started putting E175's on some Southeast Alaska and said it was just trial runs for diversionary airports or something like that... now Horizon has an Anchorage base and does Alaska flying in the 175.
I don't think you should trust this management at the things they're telling you now... but you can trust them to make a profitable airline that you can finish your career at.
For the new Hawaiian people, some of the things we're talking about with regard to cutting non profitable routes and whatnot are like Los Angeles to Cancun.. always full, great route and layover, but the company said it's too competitive so it was cut. Orange County to Cabo... that flight is always full since rich people love Cabo.. company said it's too competitive with Southwest so they cut the route to give Skywest a few more San Jose CA flights out of Orange County. I've been here over 7 years now and it used to be something that would be bothersome, but now I just bid whatever is in the packet and don't think about the other behind the scenes stuff. LAX-Cuba was a good route, but they said it wasn't working so it was cut. We're currently starting the Banahamas and Guatemala City... if they don't work as planned they will be cut.
Management started putting E175's on some Southeast Alaska and said it was just trial runs for diversionary airports or something like that... now Horizon has an Anchorage base and does Alaska flying in the 175.
I don't think you should trust this management at the things they're telling you now... but you can trust them to make a profitable airline that you can finish your career at.
12-14-2023, 07:22 PM
#203
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2022
Posts: 59
A lot of off the cuff comments here. I do believe AS management will not assume they know everything about the HA operation in detail and will do their due diligence on everything before they finalize a decision and take action. The inter-island is something they are not familiar with and will learn about it in detail. HA is usually the #1 US on time airline, they dropped a bit with the HNL runway closures. The overwhelming majority of flights HA operates in terms of volume are interisland each day, thus the interisland flights have the biggest impact on OTP to HA and since they are usually the #1 airline the 717 interisland does very well by the numbers for on time performance, it is a quick and easy airplane to turn and can make up time on short legs as long as traffic permits. It is getting older, however one of the biggest expenses of an aircraft is leasing / payments and the 717s HA has are owned. When asked earlier this year what would replace the 717, the CEO of HA, who deals with the actual numbers to operate the planes, said if he could buy new 717s he would, it is the perfect airplane for interisland. I believe AS will do their due diligence and look at the actual numbers and the ability for that plane to drive the HA OTP to #1, its cargo capacity, passenger capacity, and cost to operate and make the decision with actual data vice our pilot armchair guesses we are throwing out and I think a good chance they will continue to do what HA has been doing and squeeze every last drop out of the 717 before replacing it, and 737 seems like a very likely candidate, my guess is 3-5 years-ish. Unless AS has unused 737s it can't find routes to operate, seems llike the 717 will likely stick around a bit. The 717 will go as Delta goes with it, the largest operator of the 717 and the support for the plane will follow with them. They just annonced they are putting wifi on their 717s in 2024, and Delta seems to be a pretty smart airline in the business sense so they have determined it is smart to keep the 717 going. HA 717s cycle more per day than Delta so the life limit may be a bit different, but Boeing has extended it with analysis. Taking parts from Qantas Link retiring 717s would be a good move if not already happening.
On edit: HA daily is about 153 flights interisland about 65-70 passenger flights daily from the other 2 aircraft (330 / 321 combined) so Interisland flights account for 2/3 of the daily flights HA operates so HA's OTP ranking and HA's cancellation ranking is very very heavily dependent on how the 717 does. HA, until recently with the runway closures at HNL, were highest for OTP and lowest for cancellations, so that is a good indicator of how the 717 does since 2/3 of HA flights are 717 flights by volume.
On edit: HA daily is about 153 flights interisland about 65-70 passenger flights daily from the other 2 aircraft (330 / 321 combined) so Interisland flights account for 2/3 of the daily flights HA operates so HA's OTP ranking and HA's cancellation ranking is very very heavily dependent on how the 717 does. HA, until recently with the runway closures at HNL, were highest for OTP and lowest for cancellations, so that is a good indicator of how the 717 does since 2/3 of HA flights are 717 flights by volume.
Last edited by GreenPatures; 12-14-2023 at 07:36 PM.
12-14-2023, 08:01 PM
#204
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 223
I can't stand listening to our management talk... they just sound so sleezy and fake to me. But I will admit that they run a tight ship and a profitable airline. They're good at what they do, even though they often times seem just so far removed from the rank and file employee.
For the new Hawaiian people, some of the things we're talking about with regard to cutting non profitable routes and whatnot are like Los Angeles to Cancun.. always full, great route and layover, but the company said it's too competitive so it was cut. Orange County to Cabo... that flight is always full since rich people love Cabo.. company said it's too competitive with Southwest so they cut the route to give Skywest a few more San Jose CA flights out of Orange County. I've been here over 7 years now and it used to be something that would be bothersome, but now I just bid whatever is in the packet and don't think about the other behind the scenes stuff. LAX-Cuba was a good route, but they said it wasn't working so it was cut. We're currently starting the Banahamas and Guatemala City... if they don't work as planned they will be cut.
Management started putting E175's on some Southeast Alaska and said it was just trial runs for diversionary airports or something like that... now Horizon has an Anchorage base and does Alaska flying in the 175.
I don't think you should trust this management at the things they're telling you now... but you can trust them to make a profitable airline that you can finish your career at.
For the new Hawaiian people, some of the things we're talking about with regard to cutting non profitable routes and whatnot are like Los Angeles to Cancun.. always full, great route and layover, but the company said it's too competitive so it was cut. Orange County to Cabo... that flight is always full since rich people love Cabo.. company said it's too competitive with Southwest so they cut the route to give Skywest a few more San Jose CA flights out of Orange County. I've been here over 7 years now and it used to be something that would be bothersome, but now I just bid whatever is in the packet and don't think about the other behind the scenes stuff. LAX-Cuba was a good route, but they said it wasn't working so it was cut. We're currently starting the Banahamas and Guatemala City... if they don't work as planned they will be cut.
Management started putting E175's on some Southeast Alaska and said it was just trial runs for diversionary airports or something like that... now Horizon has an Anchorage base and does Alaska flying in the 175.
I don't think you should trust this management at the things they're telling you now... but you can trust them to make a profitable airline that you can finish your career at.
12-14-2023, 08:16 PM
#205
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,286
Oh, thanks for the correction. I am LAX based, so to me everything is considered "Southeast Alaska". I wish that all of Alaska was protected to Boeing as well.
12-14-2023, 08:34 PM
#206
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 1,208
12-15-2023, 12:28 AM
#207
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2023
Posts: 379
HA's 321's phased out and replaced by whatever 737 variant Alaska decides. AS eliminates the HNL 321 pilot positions, and does HA branded flying to HI with whatever pilots have that pairing off the West Coast. The 321 HNL based pilots eventually become 737 West Coast based pilots. The paint job and website are the only thing AS needs to keep for this branded operation. AS only needs to cover roughly 20 West Coast to HI flights that HA operates. It's not that huge of an operation.
Interisland HNL base for whoever wishes to stay interisland on a 737. Possibly smaller number of HNL pilots because AS can do some SWA style inter island pairings mixed in with full time inter island operation. Kopaka HQ is drastically reduced. ( AS doesn't need our glorious schedulers and dispatchers who struggle when the RWY is shifted around.) All those HArvard MBA's at Koapaka can go to work at some other D.E.I company. Luckily, a Harvard degree doesn't mean as much these days.
Some WB pilots remain in HNL for the Asia stuff near term. (JP, S.KO, NZ.). Some WB's get moved to the mainland since they won't be doing the mainland to HI flights. Those planes used on other long haul or trans con flights where it makes sense.
Amazon stays and gets bigger as long as it continues to be a guaranteed source of income. There will be a glut of 330-200's that now can be possibly used for freight.
Either way, theres no way HNL will have 1200 pilots based there. That's a near impossibility unless absolutely zero changes and AS bought us to continue bleeding red on their balance sheet.
The timeline is dependant on fences etc, but eventually, HNL based pilots (and people of HI) will need to get used to the fact they don't own sh!t and AS can open and close anything they want. There will be no contract provision saying the HNL base and all 1200 pilots must remain for eternity. The Country runs on Captalism (thank God) and as much as the people of HI love Socialism, it just isn't based in reality.
HA was bleeding to death. No matter what P.I. and J.S. say, losing hundreds of millions while everyone else has been making money is a losing proposition. AS is basically throwing us a lifeline, one in which I'm happy to have to stay employed for a few more years vs. the near certain BK HA would have eventually faced. ( JP, the Scamdemic, fires, economy etc)
Interisland HNL base for whoever wishes to stay interisland on a 737. Possibly smaller number of HNL pilots because AS can do some SWA style inter island pairings mixed in with full time inter island operation. Kopaka HQ is drastically reduced. ( AS doesn't need our glorious schedulers and dispatchers who struggle when the RWY is shifted around.) All those HArvard MBA's at Koapaka can go to work at some other D.E.I company. Luckily, a Harvard degree doesn't mean as much these days.
Some WB pilots remain in HNL for the Asia stuff near term. (JP, S.KO, NZ.). Some WB's get moved to the mainland since they won't be doing the mainland to HI flights. Those planes used on other long haul or trans con flights where it makes sense.
Amazon stays and gets bigger as long as it continues to be a guaranteed source of income. There will be a glut of 330-200's that now can be possibly used for freight.
Either way, theres no way HNL will have 1200 pilots based there. That's a near impossibility unless absolutely zero changes and AS bought us to continue bleeding red on their balance sheet.
The timeline is dependant on fences etc, but eventually, HNL based pilots (and people of HI) will need to get used to the fact they don't own sh!t and AS can open and close anything they want. There will be no contract provision saying the HNL base and all 1200 pilots must remain for eternity. The Country runs on Captalism (thank God) and as much as the people of HI love Socialism, it just isn't based in reality.
HA was bleeding to death. No matter what P.I. and J.S. say, losing hundreds of millions while everyone else has been making money is a losing proposition. AS is basically throwing us a lifeline, one in which I'm happy to have to stay employed for a few more years vs. the near certain BK HA would have eventually faced. ( JP, the Scamdemic, fires, economy etc)
12-15-2023, 05:57 PM
#208
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 223
12-15-2023, 07:15 PM
#209
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2022
Posts: 162
Appreciate the post. Glad to know they do what makes financial sense, but I really hope they don’t do anything drastic with HNL for 5-10 years. Change routes by all means, but create new ones and preserve Hawaii flying to save some jobs. I know this isn’t a JFK situation, but pivot flying and support Hawaii just like they do Alaska. Alaska Airlines now will be the second largest employer in Hawaii. Perhaps less after some corporate downsizing. That said I’d love to get to the Caribbean or Mexico. Sounds so exotic coming from Hawaii lol.
Also, the big difference is that all of the state of AK flying is EAS or government subsidised. That is what really makes it profitable. Mark my words, AS will seek money from the state of HI to continue routes or service and threaten/cease them if not.
You guys joke about HI being a socialist state, but Alaska is the biggest one in the country. Everyone is on the government dole, including the airline.
12-15-2023, 08:21 PM
#210
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: Cessna 205
Posts: 255
The only certainty is they will take a machete to anything that isnt profitable. If that means inner island freqeuncies or asian/NZ/AUS flying, so be it. They will only hunt for profit, there is zero regard to bases, what the pilots want, or the local population. They are on a PR campaign to not have the natives ruin the aquisition but once they get control, management will do what it wants without thought of the local labor.
Also, the big difference is that all of the state of AK flying is EAS or government subsidised. That is what really makes it profitable. Mark my words, AS will seek money from the state of HI to continue routes or service and threaten/cease them if not.
You guys joke about HI being a socialist state, but Alaska is the biggest one in the country. Everyone is on the government dole, including the airline.
Also, the big difference is that all of the state of AK flying is EAS or government subsidised. That is what really makes it profitable. Mark my words, AS will seek money from the state of HI to continue routes or service and threaten/cease them if not.
You guys joke about HI being a socialist state, but Alaska is the biggest one in the country. Everyone is on the government dole, including the airline.
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