fostro

VAX as always you're on track! I have been watching this closely as HA is still my distant Ohana. Let me apologize for using the term "Ohana" because I am not vetted like you locals are.

I am not saying I am a smart fellow but I have a degree in economics and data science and I see what's coming somewhat obvious. AS will have to immediately plug obvious holes, Japan, West Coast 330 flying, and Real Estate. Japan will be reduced very soon, hopefully they have a plan to replace the route. As I told "Pineapple Express" many many months ago, the Yen is not coming back. He said it's already recovered LOL. West Coast flying with the 330 will be next in line, 330 wb to West Coast and then sitting for 10 hours is just a bad financial move. My guess is all 330 West Coast flying will be eliminated or restructured not to be sitting for 10 hours. Amazon freight operation will be negotiated with Amazon and canceled, AS will not be a contracted (Pilot Only) freight airline and it does not fit its business model. 717 will be phased out and replaced with Horizon and contracted turboprops for the smaller island airports. Just looking at this tells me AS is very overstaffed with pilots unless they have big expansion plans. Hopefully, AS MEC will negotiate a 5-year anti-furlough agreement similar to what my current company did a long time ago.

Next will be the Real Estate in Honolulu, my guess is it's costing roughly 600k or more a month based on the average sq ft. If we add in the simulator bay it's probably another 100k or more. This will be cut very soon, Kopaka will be gone and the simulators will be moved to AS new facility or sold and contracted out to another party. The HA building and simulators will not be around in a year, just my estimate.

Finally don't forget AS is an "All Boeing Airline" and it has worked, no airline wants more than two types of aircraft unless you are like us, big 3.

Good luck Vax and you're always on track, don't let the MECompany squad tell you otherwise!

In Unity...

rickair7777

Depends also on gates and slot availability. Fewer, larger planes are better if those are constrained. Also what do you do with the planes? Need to find routes for them... or new homes. I suspect the former, don't think AS managers went through all of this just to revert to proudly all guppy 2017 sized fleet.

Rumor mill supports this, most of us who have been around think ACMI is a bridge too far.


Fot those who don't know, AS just bought the gia-normous former boeing HQ building in Renton and is converting it into a training center (it came with plenty of sim bays).

FyrePilot

I left HAL in February- so no dog in the fight

Flying a 321neo to the islands now I know how much fuel savings. It burns 2800 per engine- so about 5600 lbs / hr. Carries 200 people. The 330 was burning about 12000 lbs / hr and carried 290 and more cargo if there was demand. So 5 hours average 6000 lbs difference. 30k fuel saved per flight. Lose 90 people for the savings. It’s in the millions very quickly

So any 330 flying to west coast is done- it’s just not cost effective.

Hawaiian owns 12 of them and leases 12. They need them for HND, SYD, and ICN in the East.

They need them for NYC, BOS, and AUS in the west. Maybe LAS because it’s 9th island and slot restricted as well, but doubt 3 a day anymore. They just upgaged it to SLC. I doubt they want to go against Delta there for too long.

The leased 12 will be gone quickly I would think.

Freight will have to be negotiable. I don’t think Atlas wants it. Sunny is not capable of getting it started right away. Doubt ATSG could start right away either. So it’s still an unknown

321s will stay as there is no replacement planes coming from Boeing and apparently they have good terms

Nothing will change with the 717s for a while. The merger required the routes to stay. Not sure on frequency or equipment stipulations

Gobows

East is west, west is east, and we’re shrinking now. Great news all around.