RJSAviator76

This is a 2006-2008 redux with a few differences.

Anyone remember Mesa/go! entering Hawaii market? They brought 4 CRJ's and literally destroyed the inter island market. Hawaiian not only matched their fares, but accepted those fares and that's all they charged even if go! was full. In other words, Hawaiian was also complicit in Aloha's demise. And kama'aina couldn't care less. They all voted with their wallets.

Hawaiian was better positioned to withstand go! because they were flying heavies to the West Coast and therefore only roughly 20% of their lift capacity was inter island. When Aloha folded, Hawaiian got a virtual monopoly. Sorry, but WP or go! just couldn't compete or compare.

Since then, Hawaiian has done some fantastic things. It expanded far beyond just doing the West Coast flights, and I believe that is what will carry Hawaiian going forward.

Personally, I don't think Southwest even realizes what a gold mine inter island market is. Once we start serving it, I wouldn't be surprised if we significantly ramp up our presence there.

I know people wonder about CFM engines and how well they handle turns. Just as a point of reference, we do 30 minute turns in the -700 at smaller airports with 143 seats. Our -800's and MAX 8's are 175 seats, so naturally the turn times would have to be longer. Quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if we added -700's to ETOPS and do off-hours with it with the intent of producing revenue while positioning aircraft to/from Hawaii and rotate them for maintenance at the same time. One thing I know about our bean counters, they know how to make money in this business.

I think Hawaiian has done fantastic job in recent years. I do think we're gonna put a hurting on you guys inter island especially once it's all spooled up. Having said that, I think Hawaiian has a fantastic product and I think they'll do well if they keep expanding their longhaul markets. That was where Aloha made another huge mistake (among many) and is out of business. Hawaiian has learned from that experience, so I think you guys will be OK.

Interisland market should be a two-airline system.. kinda like how it was when Aloha was still around. Mesa came in and disrupted it. I think Hawaiian has learned a valuable lesson and broadened their horizons.

It's gonna be nice to see all this unfold, but I wouldn't quite discount Hawaiian unless your current management starts to significantly stray from Dunkerley's vision.

kingairfun

Once the "wanna get away" fares are sold out (and the initial introductory offers are for just a couple days so far) the other class fares are in line or MORE than what Hawaiian fares are...

Anyone who didn't think SWA was going to offer ridiculously low prices initially either hasn't been in the industry very long, or hasn't followed much of what is going on.

IMO what this does, and given our huge stock drop today, is makes us a cheaper takeover target. Any of us here for any length of time knows we have been rumored to be merged/bought out by just about every airline out there.. (UA, JB, DL, AK, VA, AA, ALgnt, SWA)

Let the rumors fly, all this means to me is more aimless chatter on 123.45 until SWA gets the hint that nobody wants to hear about their layovers etc.

sidestep

Don’t be mistaken, it isn’t the stock price - it’s HA’s debt that keep the big boys away. If DL couldn’t make the numbers work at ~$6/share in 2012/3 - I don’t see a merger happening with the current price.

SWA is not a Hawaiian killer, but you’re wrong if you don’t think they are gonna take a big bite.

Poopchute701

Could they not make the numbers work or was it Dunkerley and investors thinking they would be better off alone?

kingairfun

I had heard Dunk and Co were not interested in any merger/sale.. Take with a grain of salt because it's just what I heard over time on line... There's a reason I fly planes and don't run large companies...

kingairfun

I'm not worried about their West Coast operation... Time will tell if they can make inter-island work. I know they have smart people running the numbers, and have looked at all angles. Inter island, 2500nm away from the nearest base, with no dedicated maintenance, pilot base, FA base, hangars etc... They'll need to up their presence. Until then I'm cautiously hopeful.

Hawaiian 5O

Agreed. I think the Alaska pilots that like HI layovers should be more worried about SWA coming off the west coast.

pacnw77

Just a PDX pax here, but my two cents is HA won't be impacted by SWA as much as the other Airlines will...

1) Hawaii is much more of 'premium' destination than most of the leisure destinations SWA flies to. It's more like the Virgin Islands / Turks & Caicos, than it is Mexico or Florida.

It's the lodging, food, drinks, and recreation in Hawaii that's actually super expensive. I'm much more worried about how much the 6-Nights + $25 Drinks/Sandwiches at the resort are going to set me back. The flights are a smaller % of the total trip cost vs a trip to Cabo or Puerto Vallarta.

Spending a few extra $ to take Hawaiian is not a big deal for people that can afford Hawaii.


2) On a 5-6 hour flight, most experienced flyers will consider Aircraft & IFE much more. The choices for me (in order of preference) are:

Nonstop: HA A330 (rare sighting these days) or HA A321
Nonstop: AS 737
1-Stop: Delta through SEA
1-Stop: UA/AA


For this reason, I think SWA will hurt AS/AA/UA much more than it will HA.

at6d

Long way from your Eagle days I’m guessing. You want a wind check with that spAAm?

All of the initial tickets have been sold out today. I saw inter island at $29. Of course it’s a teaser.

It’s a new market with new challenges for sure. To be honest, I don’t think our plan is to compete with Hawaiian. But worst case, we just cut our losses and leave. We are the largest domestic carrier in the US and have been profitable for over 40 years—the bean counters have been hard at work no doubt.

WindWalker999

To those at HAL who are having flashbacks from 2008.

There is a critical difference between SWA and go! (Mesa).

As the various court filings attest, go! was in Hawaii to knock someone out of business. They succeeded.

SWA is in Hawaii... to make some $$$. They will succeed.

HAL is a good airline. SWA is a good airline. SWA is not here to kill HAL; they are just here to make money, and they are doing it the way that they do it.

To HAL interisland guys, let’s not take out any Mesa PTSD on the SWA boys and girls when they show up. Race them interisland like old-school lunatics and have fun. It will be a leaner time with healthy and possibly intense competition, but no one is actively trying to put anybody out of business.

To the SWA guys, welcome, good luck, and be careful not to overshoot the base to final bottom turn on the Channel Approach when the wind is out of the south.