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Bloomberg-Pilot Shortage Keeps Majors Worried

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Old 07-06-2016, 02:44 PM
  #101  
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CBreezy - upgrading in your third year of a career is average?
And your numbers don't include the $30-45K for your licenses.
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:11 PM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
CBreezy - upgrading in your third year of a career is average?
And your numbers don't include the $30-45K for your licenses.
Most regionals right now, including Skywest, are predicting a 2.5 year upgrade. So, plus or minus 6 months? And I didnt include them because you don't need to a good state school to get a good flying job. You could spend less including licensing than an engineer would going to a top rated engineering school. Could. It's possible to get a nearly free college degree through scholarships and pay for your ratings out of pocket from a job. I've seen people do it.
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Old 07-06-2016, 05:31 PM
  #103  
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Originally Posted by CBreezy
So, he wasn't a police officer, because they only make, on average $45,000 a year. I'm not talking about the medical system which is highly flawed.

A pilot can also work well past 65 if he/she wishes. I know many many people who've gone on to fly outside of 121 once they hit 65 and make a handsome amount of money.
He retired as a commander for Sunnyvale DPS. Multiple PD retirements. The average income for a PD guy in Ca is over 70K.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oakl...ice_Department
Salary
The salary of Oakland officers is another controversial issue. Police Officer Entry Level current annual salary is $69,912 to $98,088, higher than most police positions in California.[26] Additional pay increases are granted to higher-ranking officers. Average total compensation for an OPD employee is $162,000.[27] In 2012, 179 Oakland police officers took home over $200,000 in total compensation.[28] Three patrol officers, a sergeant, and a captain each took home over $300,000.[28] In 2011 the Police Department's costs make up 44% of the city's $400 million general budget.[28]

Most of my friends are Detective and higher pay grades, with a little court OT and shift pick ups mid 100K is very easy.
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Old 07-06-2016, 06:21 PM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by Timbo
Yup, you've got to really, really want it. Lots of kids think they want it, heck, every 10 year old boy wants to fly a plane, right? But sticking it out for the duration takes a lot more than just wanting it.

Even highly educated, type A guys who join the military after completing 4 year college engineering degrees don't all make it through military pilot training. I think my UPT class started with 70 and graduated about 50.

I can't even tell you how many teenage kids I've talked to over the years who have said, "Yeah, I took some flying lessons but never got my Private..."
These days the graduation rate of Air Force UPT is well over 90%; probably over 95%. I don't know if the standards are lower, the training easier (what's a fix-to-fix?), or the entrance screening more stringent. Maybe all of the above. And speaking of pilot shortages, the Air Force has one of its own.

Of course, after you graduate you owe Uncle Sam 10 more years of your life, at least 1 or 2 of which total will be spent overseas six months at a time on deployments away from your family, on top of any extended TDYs you or your unit get tasked with. Plus probably 4 or 5 moves mixed in just for funsies. But you get paid to learn to fly and then build hours. Like anything else in life: trade offs.

If I had to do it all over again - and this is the advice I'll give to my kids when they get older if they want to fly - I'd try to get hired off the street by a Guard or Reserve unit. Same great training in UPT but ultimately way more stability for the family and flexibility to pursue other interests, including civilian aviation, if desired.
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Old 07-06-2016, 07:41 PM
  #105  
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UPT washout rate has held about 16.3% for about a decade. That includes initial flight training at Pueblo. The regular AF will train roughly 1000 pilots a year, while the Guard 200 and Reserve 100. Gator I have to agree with you that the the Guard and Reserve offer a lot of flexibility. However, the Guard and Reserve are vulnerable to the same instability as the RegAF. Mobilization is always a risk. We are in a great time for the industry, but it's always a good idea to have a fallback plan. That's exactly what the Guard and Reserve are. I'd say the risk of being mobilized is far more acceptable than finding yourself without a job.
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Old 07-06-2016, 08:04 PM
  #106  
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That's a good point about Pueblo. I snuck in to UPT just before that became a thing. I was talking about UPT itself. It makes sense the rate would be a little lower when including the Pueblo program. Thanks for the amplifying info.

When I mentioned increased stability I meant more along the lines of not having to move every few years (unless you want to in order to chase certain jobs for promotion purposes). And, at least for the fighter units I'm familiar with, the duration of their deployments are typically shorter than for their Active Duty counterparts - usually around 4 months vs. 6 months.

BL, if a teenager or college student today wants a professional career as a pilot they should at least consider the military as a way to get excellent training while getting paid instead of having to pay tens of thousands of dollars. And when they do they should give a long, hard look at the Guard or Reserves instead of Active Duty. Just one guy's opinion who is counting down the days to a separation date.
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Old 07-06-2016, 08:37 PM
  #107  
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Originally Posted by Tolpin
UPT washout rate has held about 16.3% for about a decade. That includes initial flight training at Pueblo. The regular AF will train roughly 1000 pilots a year, while the Guard 200 and Reserve 100. Gator I have to agree with you that the the Guard and Reserve offer a lot of flexibility. However, the Guard and Reserve are vulnerable to the same instability as the RegAF. Mobilization is always a risk. We are in a great time for the industry, but it's always a good idea to have a fallback plan. That's exactly what the Guard and Reserve are. I'd say the risk of being mobilized is far more acceptable than finding yourself without a job.
Here's 2 cents from an older guy. I went on active duty in the early 90s; those were the bad times for both the military and the airlines. Though I had a UPT slot, I had to wait 3 years sitting behind a desk. They called us "recats" and we were placed in different AFSCs until UPT. Half way through 38s, all of us active duty dudes pinned on O-3. Then there were guys who got a desk out of UPT and they were called "banked pilots". None of them were happy campers, I remember.
After Desert Storm, the Air Force didn't need pilots (and officers in general) and gave the newly commissioned 2Lts to give up our commission and just leave. I stayed and some just cut their ties completely. Some of my friends found guard/reserve units who eventually sent them to UPT. Every single one of them got on with the majors (all good ones) much quicker than me. The commitment back then was 8 years after wings. True, they had to guard/reserve bum while I had a steady pay check and bennies but they got more hours in the reserve/guard than I did on active duty. The best part...they were just pilots and didn't have to do all of the bs (additional duties) working 12+ hour days like I did.
There are pros and cons to both but if you want to go to the airlines, the guard/reserve is the way to go, hands down! Being available when the hiring wave starts is the key since everything in the airlines is based seniority.
I'm glad I stuck with the Air Force and after all, it got me to where I am today. If I had to do it all over again, I'd go guard/reserve in a heart beat. I wish someone had told me about it back when I was starting out!
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Old 07-06-2016, 10:33 PM
  #108  
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Originally Posted by ClickClickBoom
The salary of Oakland officers is another controversial issue. Police Officer Entry Level current annual salary is $69,912 to $98,088, higher than most police positions in California.[26] Additional pay increases are granted to higher-ranking officers. Average total compensation for an OPD employee is $162,000.[27] In 2012, 179 Oakland police officers took home over $200,000 in total compensation.[28]
And does that top a 25 year 74 CA flying the line? Will their retirement top a 25 year CA flying the line?

Originally Posted by ClickClickBoom
3 patrol officers, a sergeant, and a captain each took home over $300,000.[28] In 2011 the Police Department's costs make up 44% of the city's $400 million general budget.[28]

Most of my friends are Detective and higher pay grades, with a little court OT and shift pick ups mid 100K is very easy.
Still not answering the question, and now you're throwing in additional time spent above and beyond what can be compared to "flying the line".

You can find narrow body CA's easily breaking your numbers with GS, senior man, premium pay, whatever.

And AGAIN, what are those guys retiring at? Do they top the maxed out 74 CA numbers I posted earlier?
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Old 07-07-2016, 03:48 AM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by GatorHog
That's a good point about Pueblo. I snuck in to UPT just before that became a thing. I was talking about UPT itself. It makes sense the rate would be a little lower when including the Pueblo program. Thanks for the amplifying info.

When I mentioned increased stability I meant more along the lines of not having to move every few years (unless you want to in order to chase certain jobs for promotion purposes). And, at least for the fighter units I'm familiar with, the duration of their deployments are typically shorter than for their Active Duty counterparts - usually around 4 months vs. 6 months.

BL, if a teenager or college student today wants a professional career as a pilot they should at least consider the military as a way to get excellent training while getting paid instead of having to pay tens of thousands of dollars. And when they do they should give a long, hard look at the Guard or Reserves instead of Active Duty. Just one guy's opinion who is counting down the days to a separation date.


I retire from the AF very soon. I know exactly where you are. The thing to let those youngsters know is that the competition for a Guard or Reserve slot is tough and odds are not in their favor. The Guard and Reserve tend to be very selective of the handful of pilot slots they get every year. Many are given to those who already work in the unit as a maintainer or similar position. They go get a commission and head straight to UPT. The Guard and Reserve survive on those who separate from the RegAF joining them. As time moves on and the RegAF's pilot shortage grows (currently about 300 total short and 650 fighter guys short) the the limited UPT capacity will have even fewer UPT slots given to the Guard and Reserve. The Guard and Reserve will make up for the loss by recruiting from the massive outflow RegAF will have at the end of their service commitment.

Bottom line is our Nation simply has not had enough pilot production to meet the current demand. I think that a lot more opportunity from programs like AA's aviation cadet program and JetBlues similar program will be the easiest, quickest and most lucrative route to a major .



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Old 07-07-2016, 05:38 AM
  #110  
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Originally Posted by John Carr
And does that top a 25 year 74 CA flying the line? Will their retirement top a 25 year CA flying the line?



Still not answering the question, and now you're throwing in additional time spent above and beyond what can be compared to "flying the line".

You can find narrow body CA's easily breaking your numbers with GS, senior man, premium pay, whatever.

And AGAIN, what are those guys retiring at? Do they top the maxed out 74 CA numbers I posted earlier?
Ill answer for you..no.
Also, the numbers he is quoting are far from normal and are likely in a location that has an extreme cost of living. Go into almost any (99%) other police station and ask how many are breaking 300k and they'll ask if you mean in 5 or 10 years.
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