Addiction
12-30-2006, 08:26 PM
#81
Swearing at the FMA
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: MD-88 FO
Posts: 902
Here is one that even you should accept. In December of 2005 there were 262,606 total Commercial and ATP rated pilots with current medicals. If each one could expect an average career of 30 years then 8754 professional grade pilots are made each year. In an average year around 2200 pilots are needed at the majors to fill the retirement vacancies. That leaves a one in 3.98 chance of making it to the majors.
Of course the real odds are much longer.
SkyHigh
12-31-2006, 08:13 AM
#82
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Odds
SkyHigh
12-31-2006, 10:37 AM
#83
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Another happy pilot
Kansas,
Here is a pirated quote from another happy pilot who I can add to the list of the uncounted majority. I took it from the thread about going to ERAU.
"In 1984, when I said "F++k it, I have had enough of this s++t" I had:
ATP- MEL
Commercial- SEL, SES, MES, Glider
CFI-A,-I,-MEL,-Glider
4,500 hours Total
I went back to school and got an engineering degree at a state university that cost me $700 a quarter. I almost went insane making enough money to pay off Riddle loans, second degree tuition, rent and food.....BUT my first job out paid $40k a year. It was definitely worth the 4 extra years and the best investment I ever made. It would take you at least 10 years to reach the same salary with an Air Science degree.
I haven't flown in 5 years, my licenses are expired due to lack of BFR and I do not have a current medical. I really don't care if I ever see another cockpit.
F++k Riddle." From: ERAU1978grad
If you look there are a lot of guys around that were pilots. Most however don't frequent aviation forums or airports. I am not the only one who shares this attitude.
Skyhigh
Here is a pirated quote from another happy pilot who I can add to the list of the uncounted majority. I took it from the thread about going to ERAU.
"In 1984, when I said "F++k it, I have had enough of this s++t" I had:
ATP- MEL
Commercial- SEL, SES, MES, Glider
CFI-A,-I,-MEL,-Glider
4,500 hours Total
I went back to school and got an engineering degree at a state university that cost me $700 a quarter. I almost went insane making enough money to pay off Riddle loans, second degree tuition, rent and food.....BUT my first job out paid $40k a year. It was definitely worth the 4 extra years and the best investment I ever made. It would take you at least 10 years to reach the same salary with an Air Science degree.
I haven't flown in 5 years, my licenses are expired due to lack of BFR and I do not have a current medical. I really don't care if I ever see another cockpit.
F++k Riddle." From: ERAU1978grad
If you look there are a lot of guys around that were pilots. Most however don't frequent aviation forums or airports. I am not the only one who shares this attitude.
Skyhigh
12-31-2006, 11:46 AM
#84
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: XJT F/O
Posts: 144
Wow here you go again, you say in one post that 1 in 25 will get hired for an aviation career then I come back with real numbers of what is happening and you make up another statistic to back your failed argument. I ask another question to you then, if the regionals are hiring so much, were are those pilots going. I would guess a high percentage are moving on to the better jobs.
One other question, what person in this world can not raise a family on 80,000 dollars a year. The majority of the US population does it every year. Odd isn't it.
I find it funny that you speak about this ever progressing quest to solve the aviation industries gripes by sitting in front of your computer making up stats and telling people not to get into this industry instead of getting into the industry and making a real effort to change the problems. If it does not affect your life then let the rest of the good people who are out there every day come together on here and find solutions to the problem that don't involve giving up.
One other question, what person in this world can not raise a family on 80,000 dollars a year. The majority of the US population does it every year. Odd isn't it.
I find it funny that you speak about this ever progressing quest to solve the aviation industries gripes by sitting in front of your computer making up stats and telling people not to get into this industry instead of getting into the industry and making a real effort to change the problems. If it does not affect your life then let the rest of the good people who are out there every day come together on here and find solutions to the problem that don't involve giving up.
12-31-2006, 12:12 PM
#85
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,838
I find it funny that you speak about this ever progressing quest to solve the aviation industries gripes by sitting in front of your computer making up stats and telling people not to get into this industry instead of getting into the industry and making a real effort to change the problems. If it does not affect your life then let the rest of the good people who are out there every day come together on here and find solutions to the problem that don't involve giving up.
When you call him on his BS numbers he reverts to the "I was just trying to make a Point."
ASK Sky high what he nets every month.
12-31-2006, 04:44 PM
#86
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Guys
Speeder, Redeye,
How can you assume that regional pilots are moving on to better jobs? Where are they going? Sure SWA hires a few and CAL is firing up but not enough to account for what is happening at the regionals. The military averages over 11,000 new pilots a year alone. What makes you think that you will reach $80,000 at the regionals? Where does this number come from?
Lets re-examine the evidence:
1. Minimums at the majors are skyrocketing while the regionals are falling, interesting.
2. 1980 there were 357,479 private pilots. Now there are 228,6190, only 64% of what there once were. However in 1980 there were 60,440 CFI's and now there are 90,555 current CFI's. We have much fewer hobby pilots now but much more instructors. To me this is an obvious indicator that aviation as a hobby is almost completely dead. The majority of private pilots have professional intentions that will go unfulfilled.
3. The regionals are hiring like carzy yet there it not place for them to go. Turn over is largely due to people leaving the business.
4. There are 262,606 current commercial and ATP rated pilots in America. Soon I will have the data to prove that there is easily another quarter of a million professional grade pilots who are capable of working in the industry still who have let their medicals lapse, totally quit flying and are now doing something else for a living.
All of the data above came from this web site:
http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html
Besides myself there are plenty of others who are making the same argument as I. Ranger himself is the one who quoted "one in twenty five" odds. I use his statement since I know you wouldn't accept my own.
SKyHigh
How can you assume that regional pilots are moving on to better jobs? Where are they going? Sure SWA hires a few and CAL is firing up but not enough to account for what is happening at the regionals. The military averages over 11,000 new pilots a year alone. What makes you think that you will reach $80,000 at the regionals? Where does this number come from?
Lets re-examine the evidence:
1. Minimums at the majors are skyrocketing while the regionals are falling, interesting.
2. 1980 there were 357,479 private pilots. Now there are 228,6190, only 64% of what there once were. However in 1980 there were 60,440 CFI's and now there are 90,555 current CFI's. We have much fewer hobby pilots now but much more instructors. To me this is an obvious indicator that aviation as a hobby is almost completely dead. The majority of private pilots have professional intentions that will go unfulfilled.
3. The regionals are hiring like carzy yet there it not place for them to go. Turn over is largely due to people leaving the business.
4. There are 262,606 current commercial and ATP rated pilots in America. Soon I will have the data to prove that there is easily another quarter of a million professional grade pilots who are capable of working in the industry still who have let their medicals lapse, totally quit flying and are now doing something else for a living.
All of the data above came from this web site:
http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html
Besides myself there are plenty of others who are making the same argument as I. Ranger himself is the one who quoted "one in twenty five" odds. I use his statement since I know you wouldn't accept my own.
SKyHigh
12-31-2006, 05:19 PM
#87
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2006
Position: 737 Right
Posts: 1,385
Check your math
I don't have the source but I know the USAF only trains maybe 1500 pilots a year give or take a couple hundred? No where near the 11000 you claim, in fact I think there's less than 15,000 pilots in the military TOTAL. Even in the cold war we were barely training over 3000 a year. I can't speak for Naval training but it's smaller than USAF.
Also consider that a significant number of those pilots never leave military flying or join the civilian world.
I'm thinking that you're at least 6000 pilots/year off right there. And those are guys who rarely go through the regional world, they're typically hired right to the majors.
Also consider that a significant number of those pilots never leave military flying or join the civilian world.
I'm thinking that you're at least 6000 pilots/year off right there. And those are guys who rarely go through the regional world, they're typically hired right to the majors.
Last edited by 1Seat 1Engine; 12-31-2006 at 05:31 PM.
12-31-2006, 05:27 PM
#88
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Last Night
Last night I was at a small party and I was thinking of you guys. There were several young couples there to celebrate the second birthday of one of the children. Most of the attendees were in their lower 30's and were from the neighborhood and were well off. They all live in large new homes on 10 to 20 acres. Like myself most of them owned a construction company of some kind.
I enjoyed telling frightening pilot stories but not of near misses in the flight but of how little I was paid at the various companies that I worked for. I also passed on the current pay scales and that too drew gasps from those who were engaged in the conversation. Outside of my scary stories we discussed golf, snowmobiling, other hobbies and vacations spots they enjoyed. Back when I was a pilot and able to get together with pilot friends we exchanged tips on where to get top ramen at a nickle less and of who was needing a new room mate that month.
While at the party last night I realised that I was living the life I had dreamed of as an airline pilot. Though I am sure that some place pilots are able to enjoy a similar lifestyle it is becoming a very rare accomplishment. Some have mentioned that $80,000 per year is a lot of money and it is for a plumner but after investing in a four year degree and perhaps another 10 years of miserible wages to get there is isn't much at all.
The guys I was with last night were not rocket scientists or even college educated. They are able to preform a fairly simple skill that pays a lot of money. They couldn't imagine showing up for a day of work for what even a major airline pilot gets payed. It was a bitter sweet day when I discovered that I could earn more on one house than most major airline FO's do in a year, (and I can build a lot of houses in a year). I was sad because I knew I would never be able to look at myself in the mirror and work as a pilot ever again. On that day my pilot dream was killed off forever.
SkyHigh
I enjoyed telling frightening pilot stories but not of near misses in the flight but of how little I was paid at the various companies that I worked for. I also passed on the current pay scales and that too drew gasps from those who were engaged in the conversation. Outside of my scary stories we discussed golf, snowmobiling, other hobbies and vacations spots they enjoyed. Back when I was a pilot and able to get together with pilot friends we exchanged tips on where to get top ramen at a nickle less and of who was needing a new room mate that month.
While at the party last night I realised that I was living the life I had dreamed of as an airline pilot. Though I am sure that some place pilots are able to enjoy a similar lifestyle it is becoming a very rare accomplishment. Some have mentioned that $80,000 per year is a lot of money and it is for a plumner but after investing in a four year degree and perhaps another 10 years of miserible wages to get there is isn't much at all.
The guys I was with last night were not rocket scientists or even college educated. They are able to preform a fairly simple skill that pays a lot of money. They couldn't imagine showing up for a day of work for what even a major airline pilot gets payed. It was a bitter sweet day when I discovered that I could earn more on one house than most major airline FO's do in a year, (and I can build a lot of houses in a year). I was sad because I knew I would never be able to look at myself in the mirror and work as a pilot ever again. On that day my pilot dream was killed off forever.
SkyHigh
12-31-2006, 05:32 PM
#89
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Reference
I don't have the source but I know the USAF only trains maybe 1500 pilots a year give or take a couple hundred? No where near the 11000 you claim, in fact I think there's less than 15,000 pilots in the military TOTAL. Even in the cold war we were barely training over 3000 a year. I can't speak for Naval training but it's smaller than USAF.
Also consider that a significant number of those pilots never leave military flying or join the civilian world.
I'm thinking that you're at least 6000 pilots/year off right there. And those are guys who rarely go through the regional world, they're typically hired right to the majors.
Also consider that a significant number of those pilots never leave military flying or join the civilian world.
I'm thinking that you're at least 6000 pilots/year off right there. And those are guys who rarely go through the regional world, they're typically hired right to the majors.
SkyHigh
12-31-2006, 05:34 PM
#90
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2006
Position: 737 Right
Posts: 1,385
Source of Info:
Skyhigh, you continually cite numbers based on how many people hold a specific kind of ticket as proof of numbers of unemployed pilots. I think that's bad methodology. I know a people who hold certificates that they never intend to use. These people should not be considered actively participating in the pilot job market.
On the other hand, consider this metric: empty airplanes with no pilots to fly them:
"Tuesday, November 28, 2006
All Those New Planes Need Pilots
By John Gillie
The Tacoma (WA) News Tribune
In the Middle East, the airline rumor mills say new $200 million Boeing 777s
are sitting idle on the ground part of the day because airlines don't have
enough qualified pilots to get them airborne. In China, a startup airline
canceled a large part of its schedule when it couldn't find enough pilots to
fly its routes.
In Africa, national airlines are complaining that their most experienced
pilots are being lured away by airlines in other parts of the world, leaving
them with sparse and inexperienced crews. And the airline news Web sites are
reporting some foreign carriers are offering American pilots twice their
officially listed wages to join their crews.
For The Boeing Co., such news is both heartening and discouraging.
Heartening because it's indicative of the fast growth of air travel and the
demand for new airliners in the world's most populous regions. Discouraging
because the pilot shortage could put a real limit on how fast Asian and
Middle Eastern airlines can grow and absorb the airliners Boeing is
creating."
On the other hand, consider this metric: empty airplanes with no pilots to fly them:
"Tuesday, November 28, 2006
All Those New Planes Need Pilots
By John Gillie
The Tacoma (WA) News Tribune
In the Middle East, the airline rumor mills say new $200 million Boeing 777s
are sitting idle on the ground part of the day because airlines don't have
enough qualified pilots to get them airborne. In China, a startup airline
canceled a large part of its schedule when it couldn't find enough pilots to
fly its routes.
In Africa, national airlines are complaining that their most experienced
pilots are being lured away by airlines in other parts of the world, leaving
them with sparse and inexperienced crews. And the airline news Web sites are
reporting some foreign carriers are offering American pilots twice their
officially listed wages to join their crews.
For The Boeing Co., such news is both heartening and discouraging.
Heartening because it's indicative of the fast growth of air travel and the
demand for new airliners in the world's most populous regions. Discouraging
because the pilot shortage could put a real limit on how fast Asian and
Middle Eastern airlines can grow and absorb the airliners Boeing is
creating."
