Addiction
12-28-2006, 12:58 AM
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2006
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 2,370
If each state has at least one university and a few community colleges that offer an aviation program my guess is that they produce around 250 pilot grads per year. Multiply that by 50 states and you have 12,500 new pro pilots per year. The military also makes around 11,000 new pilots each year. Our total now is 23,500 pilots who are trained to professional levels.
The majors have around 55-65,000 pilots total. If you assume an average career of 25 years one can determine an average attrition rate of 2600 pilots per year. Others here have forecast large growth in the airlines however all of that growth is expected to be in LCC's and regionals. In fact is seems likely that the majors will shrink due to expected mergers.
Conclusion: of the 23,500 pilots that are created every year in colleges, universities and from the military there are only 2600 jobs each year for them to fight over. Just shy of ten to one odds. Now add to that every farm town flight school and professional pilot mill that litter our country and ones chances get buried. Throw in the likelihood of getting sidelined by a merger, furlough or medical problem and your odds are perhaps one in 25.
SkyHigh
The majors have around 55-65,000 pilots total. If you assume an average career of 25 years one can determine an average attrition rate of 2600 pilots per year. Others here have forecast large growth in the airlines however all of that growth is expected to be in LCC's and regionals. In fact is seems likely that the majors will shrink due to expected mergers.
Conclusion: of the 23,500 pilots that are created every year in colleges, universities and from the military there are only 2600 jobs each year for them to fight over. Just shy of ten to one odds. Now add to that every farm town flight school and professional pilot mill that litter our country and ones chances get buried. Throw in the likelihood of getting sidelined by a merger, furlough or medical problem and your odds are perhaps one in 25.
SkyHigh
I don't even know where to start with this thread. Not every state has an aviation program. Georgia might be doing a co-op thing now, but I went to MTSU (Middle TN) via Academic Common Market because there wasn't any program in GA for aerospace.
I also think your numbers are exaggerated (sorry). I don't buy 250 students per state. The 6-10 year upgrade in a regional to captain is also something I don't buy. The two senior guys in the company havn't even been there 10 years.
SkyHigh, you seem to really be bitter towards people who want to fly for a living. I personally think it's more important to be happy than rich. Money isn't everything.
12-28-2006, 03:20 AM
#63
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2006
Posts: 47
"One day you will grow up and think " man I sure wish I had a house. I wish I had an income to support a family on" and then you will say " I wish I didn't have a $1200 student loan to payment for a career that pays peanuts". Most who post here, like it or not, will quit flying one day and will find a real job. They will lick their wounds and ask how they got into that predicament." skyhigh
This scenerio is a much better one, then waking up one day and wondering what if I did try. What if I did have what it took to be a professional pilot (insert somthing else your passionate about here). But wait I took the decent little job and spent the next 25 years rotting from the inside out with "what if's". I paid for a nice house, cars and raised a great family but I paid for it all with my broken dreams.
I am tired of rotting from the inside out. If flying doesn't work out so what, life goes on but I will always know I followed my dreams. And will look back with confidence knowing I gave it a shot.
And no, I am not some young naive kid. 31, divorced and when I do start flying full time I won't have any bills at all. At least this souless job gave me one thing, money to pay for those dreams.
Skyhigh I think those numbers a slightly exagerated. If the millatary produces 11,000 pilots a year fine, how many get out a year. thats the number that counts. Unless thats what you are refering to never mind.
This scenerio is a much better one, then waking up one day and wondering what if I did try. What if I did have what it took to be a professional pilot (insert somthing else your passionate about here). But wait I took the decent little job and spent the next 25 years rotting from the inside out with "what if's". I paid for a nice house, cars and raised a great family but I paid for it all with my broken dreams.
I am tired of rotting from the inside out. If flying doesn't work out so what, life goes on but I will always know I followed my dreams. And will look back with confidence knowing I gave it a shot.
And no, I am not some young naive kid. 31, divorced and when I do start flying full time I won't have any bills at all. At least this souless job gave me one thing, money to pay for those dreams.
Skyhigh I think those numbers a slightly exagerated. If the millatary produces 11,000 pilots a year fine, how many get out a year. thats the number that counts. Unless thats what you are refering to never mind.
Last edited by PositiveRate; 12-28-2006 at 04:07 AM.
12-28-2006, 05:08 AM
#64
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Assumption
My assumptions are exactly that, an exercise. Some states will have more university programs while others will have none. My state has two university programs and four community college ones. Florida and Arizona have enough programs to cover several states. My point is to show that it is a large country and all it takes is a small handful from each state and you get quickly reach an astonishing amount. Even if you were to half my underestimated numbers the odds are still astronomical.
I use the an estimate of ten years to reach the left sear at a regional since it takes into consideration a few years as a CFI or charter pilot plus 3 to 6 years as an FO. The regional hiring boom is almost over. You guys should not bank on a quick trip to the left seat.
Money isn't everything but it is something to strongly consider. I don't care how fun an occupation is if you are poor it will become a misery.
SkyHigh
I use the an estimate of ten years to reach the left sear at a regional since it takes into consideration a few years as a CFI or charter pilot plus 3 to 6 years as an FO. The regional hiring boom is almost over. You guys should not bank on a quick trip to the left seat.
Money isn't everything but it is something to strongly consider. I don't care how fun an occupation is if you are poor it will become a misery.
SkyHigh
12-28-2006, 05:39 AM
#65
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Making it.
Reaching the majors:
If you are a no name outsider to the industry you must have everything going for you and incredible luck to hit the rungs of the ladder exactly right in order to have a chance of making it.
You need to be young and attractive. Be lucky enough to reach a good regional under the age of 25. Upgrade in an RJ before the age of 30. Preferable be single. Have a clean record. Good credit and be Lucky enough to be ready at a time when the majors are aggressively hiring. If any of these things are less than spot on your odds begin to slip considerably.
It is easy to find examples of fat or old guys who get hired at well known and popular majors but dig a little and you will discover additional facts like nepotism or a well placed good old boy on the inside. Even military guys have a lot to worry about. In general the fancier airlines prefer the more popular of the military pilot group like the fighter jocks. If you are a lowly IP in a king air good luck.
As we progress through our careers most of you will quickly begin to see the odds stack up against you. Each cycle of the industry is like a door slowly opening and everyone knows that it will unexpectedly slam shut so there is a sense of urgency. Even now after five long years the door is beginning to crack open. All across the country pilots are fighting for a glimpse of the good life. All it will take is a rash of mergers, another terrorist attack or perhaps the age 60 rule bumping up to 65 and the hiring will cease for perhaps another 3 to 5 years. If you don't get in then it is too bad for you.
Pilot careers are like an apple ripening on the tree. If you are one of the lucky ones and don't get culled before, you will be able to enjoy a small window of a few days you will reach the top of the job market, ready to be picked. However, if the market is in a slowdown then on the tree you will stay. As time goes by you past the point of being seen as a wonder kid captain and start to resemble a desperate middle aged looser. HR begins to ask themselves "why hasn't this apple been picked yet"? The assumption is that there must be something wrong or less than perfect with you. They have thousands of perfect apples to choose from. Any small blemish and you will get passed by.
As even more years go by the branch begins to sag. The pilot is still an eligible candidate but is so deeply embedded with family, in the community and his regional airline that it would be hugely difficult to consider a change like a move to most of the majors, but if FedEx want to turn you into juice you are there!. Eventually the reality sets in the pilot stops attending job fairs, filling out applications, updating files with companies and falls from the tree.
SKyHigh
If you are a no name outsider to the industry you must have everything going for you and incredible luck to hit the rungs of the ladder exactly right in order to have a chance of making it.
You need to be young and attractive. Be lucky enough to reach a good regional under the age of 25. Upgrade in an RJ before the age of 30. Preferable be single. Have a clean record. Good credit and be Lucky enough to be ready at a time when the majors are aggressively hiring. If any of these things are less than spot on your odds begin to slip considerably.
It is easy to find examples of fat or old guys who get hired at well known and popular majors but dig a little and you will discover additional facts like nepotism or a well placed good old boy on the inside. Even military guys have a lot to worry about. In general the fancier airlines prefer the more popular of the military pilot group like the fighter jocks. If you are a lowly IP in a king air good luck.
As we progress through our careers most of you will quickly begin to see the odds stack up against you. Each cycle of the industry is like a door slowly opening and everyone knows that it will unexpectedly slam shut so there is a sense of urgency. Even now after five long years the door is beginning to crack open. All across the country pilots are fighting for a glimpse of the good life. All it will take is a rash of mergers, another terrorist attack or perhaps the age 60 rule bumping up to 65 and the hiring will cease for perhaps another 3 to 5 years. If you don't get in then it is too bad for you.
Pilot careers are like an apple ripening on the tree. If you are one of the lucky ones and don't get culled before, you will be able to enjoy a small window of a few days you will reach the top of the job market, ready to be picked. However, if the market is in a slowdown then on the tree you will stay. As time goes by you past the point of being seen as a wonder kid captain and start to resemble a desperate middle aged looser. HR begins to ask themselves "why hasn't this apple been picked yet"? The assumption is that there must be something wrong or less than perfect with you. They have thousands of perfect apples to choose from. Any small blemish and you will get passed by.
As even more years go by the branch begins to sag. The pilot is still an eligible candidate but is so deeply embedded with family, in the community and his regional airline that it would be hugely difficult to consider a change like a move to most of the majors, but if FedEx want to turn you into juice you are there!. Eventually the reality sets in the pilot stops attending job fairs, filling out applications, updating files with companies and falls from the tree.
SKyHigh
12-28-2006, 05:47 AM
#66
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
12-28-2006, 06:30 AM
#68
Swearing at the FMA
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: MD-88 FO
Posts: 902
I am tired of rotting from the inside out. If flying doesn't work out so what, life goes on but I will always know I followed my dreams. And will look back with confidence knowing I gave it a shot.
And no, I am not some young naive kid. 31, divorced and when I do start flying full time I won't have any bills at all. At least this souless job gave me one thing, money to pay for those dreams.
12-28-2006, 06:59 AM
#69
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Regrets
This is a thought I was actually contemplating yesterday. What if one has a passion that they never pursue? Chances are, 5 years down the road, they're nearly sick sitting around wondering "What if?" SkyHigh, there's no way to know the answer to this question, but what if you had never even tried to pursue your dream of aviation? Sure, it didn't work out, but you were able to see that and get out, and apparently are fairly pleased with your lot in life at this time. Granted, it's not the best way to do things, but if it doesn't work out, OK...Time to go be a "normal" person, I guess...without regrets.
I smoked for a time as a young person. As I looked to the future it was obvious that the effects over time would be harmful to me. Sure some are able to smoke for a lifetime and don't seem to be effected by it but I took a proactive approach and was able to quit. I loved smoking and soon after quitting I gained 15 pounds as a negative side effect but I am still very glad that I did it.
By ignoring the realities of life you all are setting yourselves up for a lot of regrets as an older person. It is no fun to be poor. It is no fun to be treated like filth by your employer. A life as a professional pilot is unlikely to produce results that you will be happy with in the future.
SkyHigh
12-28-2006, 08:37 AM
#70
Swearing at the FMA
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: MD-88 FO
Posts: 902
Smoking and flying are different, although you will probably disagree with me on this. Smoking is a habit. All it takes to pick it up is five dollars and 18 years of age. It has a ridiculous amount of negative side effects that are nearly a certainty, and it is an end in and of itself. I see nothing positive coming of it.
Flying is a dream, an occupation, a vocation, a calling. It takes skill, quite a bit of money (unfortunately), and a strong will to pick it up. There is a laundry list of possible negative side effects that COULD happen, including broken families and finances (like any other job), as well as excessive time away. This is offset by a long list of possible positives, including working 40% of the month (or less), a high salary (yes, they do still exist), feeling satisfied doing something you love, etc.
An intriguing analogy, though.
Flying is a dream, an occupation, a vocation, a calling. It takes skill, quite a bit of money (unfortunately), and a strong will to pick it up. There is a laundry list of possible negative side effects that COULD happen, including broken families and finances (like any other job), as well as excessive time away. This is offset by a long list of possible positives, including working 40% of the month (or less), a high salary (yes, they do still exist), feeling satisfied doing something you love, etc.
An intriguing analogy, though.
