Addiction
12-31-2006, 10:29 PM
#101
Line Holder
Joined APC: Nov 2006
Position: she flies thats all it matters
Posts: 68
SH
i was looking in the stats from AOPA (the link you posted)
and i came out with this:
new ATP from 2004 to 2005 = -168
student pilot=87,213 and instructor=90,555
its evident that to read this stats correctly you need more info
student pilot are not so much cumulative instead instructor yes and you can see they are counting the instructors from 1960
but if you see from 2004 to 2005 there were not even 1000 instructors more
and yes you can say flying as hobby has changed looking the number of student pilots in the 60s or 80s (almost 200,000) but we all know that the price of gas has a large contribution to this.
looking at all these numbers i still havent found your 60K new pilots (ATP) every year
i was looking in the stats from AOPA (the link you posted)
and i came out with this:
new ATP from 2004 to 2005 = -168
student pilot=87,213 and instructor=90,555
its evident that to read this stats correctly you need more info
student pilot are not so much cumulative instead instructor yes and you can see they are counting the instructors from 1960
but if you see from 2004 to 2005 there were not even 1000 instructors more
and yes you can say flying as hobby has changed looking the number of student pilots in the 60s or 80s (almost 200,000) but we all know that the price of gas has a large contribution to this.
looking at all these numbers i still havent found your 60K new pilots (ATP) every year
12-31-2006, 11:59 PM
#103
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2006
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 2,370
Speeder, Redeye,
How can you assume that regional pilots are moving on to better jobs? Where are they going? Sure SWA hires a few and CAL is firing up but not enough to account for what is happening at the regionals. The military averages over 11,000 new pilots a year alone. What makes you think that you will reach $80,000 at the regionals? Where does this number come from?
Lets re-examine the evidence:
1. Minimums at the majors are skyrocketing while the regionals are falling, interesting.
How can you assume that regional pilots are moving on to better jobs? Where are they going? Sure SWA hires a few and CAL is firing up but not enough to account for what is happening at the regionals. The military averages over 11,000 new pilots a year alone. What makes you think that you will reach $80,000 at the regionals? Where does this number come from?
Lets re-examine the evidence:
1. Minimums at the majors are skyrocketing while the regionals are falling, interesting.
2. 1980 there were 357,479 private pilots. Now there are 228,6190, only 64% of what there once were. However in 1980 there were 60,440 CFI's and now there are 90,555 current CFI's. We have much fewer hobby pilots now but much more instructors. To me this is an obvious indicator that aviation as a hobby is almost completely dead. The majority of private pilots have professional intentions that will go unfulfilled.
Tell Cessna and all the other manufacturers that aviation is dead as a hobby. They'll laugh at you.
3. The regionals are hiring like carzy yet there it not place for them to go. Turn over is largely due to people leaving the business.
4. There are 262,606 current commercial and ATP rated pilots in America. Soon I will have the data to prove that there is easily another quarter of a million professional grade pilots who are capable of working in the industry still who have let their medicals lapse, totally quit flying and are now doing something else for a living.
All of the data above came from this web site:
http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html
Besides myself there are plenty of others who are making the same argument as I. Ranger himself is the one who quoted "one in twenty five" odds. I use his statement since I know you wouldn't accept my own.
SKyHigh
All of the data above came from this web site:
http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html
Besides myself there are plenty of others who are making the same argument as I. Ranger himself is the one who quoted "one in twenty five" odds. I use his statement since I know you wouldn't accept my own.
SKyHigh
Also keep in mind that many ATC students get licenses even though they never intend to use flying as career.
Last edited by Baradium; 01-01-2007 at 02:00 AM.
01-01-2007, 01:30 AM
#104
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,947
01-01-2007, 07:42 AM
#105
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
GA is dying
GA is dying and manufacturers are worried. The link below is from the first article that popped up on a search.
http://www.calpilots.org/html/article.php?sid=1617
Despite the interest in sport-pilot training, the number of pilots in the U.S. has been steadily declining for the last 20 years, and that has repercussions through all of aviation, The Wichita Eagle reported on Wednesday. Manufacturers worry that the market for their aircraft won't be there in the future. Airlines and other operators worry that they won't be able to find qualified pilots. And with thousands of very light jets expected to join the fleet in the next few years, the demand for professional pilots will likely grow
As someone mentioned there are more instructors than students now. In 20 years it will be completely gone except for those foolish enough to pursue it as a career. Even now most of the 228,000 active private pilots have professional aspirations. Keep in mind that the demand for pilots might grow however the pay will not. Demand for roofers is always high but the pay rarely leaves minimum wage.
SKyHigh
http://www.calpilots.org/html/article.php?sid=1617
Despite the interest in sport-pilot training, the number of pilots in the U.S. has been steadily declining for the last 20 years, and that has repercussions through all of aviation, The Wichita Eagle reported on Wednesday. Manufacturers worry that the market for their aircraft won't be there in the future. Airlines and other operators worry that they won't be able to find qualified pilots. And with thousands of very light jets expected to join the fleet in the next few years, the demand for professional pilots will likely grow
As someone mentioned there are more instructors than students now. In 20 years it will be completely gone except for those foolish enough to pursue it as a career. Even now most of the 228,000 active private pilots have professional aspirations. Keep in mind that the demand for pilots might grow however the pay will not. Demand for roofers is always high but the pay rarely leaves minimum wage.
SKyHigh
01-01-2007, 07:59 AM
#106
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Challenge
I have no doubts that a few will get an ATP for the "challenge", but the vast majority are there with professional intentions.
Delta might start out with low minimums since they are a shakey company right now. Alaska Airlines, SWA and UPS will not be lowering their minimums.
Right now there are 87,213 student pilots. (fewer students than there are instructors.) Today there are fewer students but since most have professional intentions and have already committed thousands of dollars the completion rate is high. More than two thirds of them complete their training and advance to private pilot within one year. Of those who complete the private over %80 move on to the commercial pilot rating. At least 30,000 commercial pilots are made every year with professional aspirations. Most of them will not get their first job. Within a few years they will lose currency and will drop off the list and not be counted anymore.
It is the truth. It is the reality. Why don't you guys find some hard evidence to prove me wrong? The more of us searching the Internet or pulling out old issues of Flight Training Magazine the better. I realize that the truth is scary but it will set you free.
In the mean while I am waiting for the FAA to get back to my emails. The disappointing fact for me is that when I do produce the evidence you guys will blow away like leaves on a denial breeze and leave me with an empty thread. I hope some of you stick around for the results and post comments.
Skyhigh
Delta might start out with low minimums since they are a shakey company right now. Alaska Airlines, SWA and UPS will not be lowering their minimums.
Right now there are 87,213 student pilots. (fewer students than there are instructors.) Today there are fewer students but since most have professional intentions and have already committed thousands of dollars the completion rate is high. More than two thirds of them complete their training and advance to private pilot within one year. Of those who complete the private over %80 move on to the commercial pilot rating. At least 30,000 commercial pilots are made every year with professional aspirations. Most of them will not get their first job. Within a few years they will lose currency and will drop off the list and not be counted anymore.
It is the truth. It is the reality. Why don't you guys find some hard evidence to prove me wrong? The more of us searching the Internet or pulling out old issues of Flight Training Magazine the better. I realize that the truth is scary but it will set you free.
In the mean while I am waiting for the FAA to get back to my emails. The disappointing fact for me is that when I do produce the evidence you guys will blow away like leaves on a denial breeze and leave me with an empty thread. I hope some of you stick around for the results and post comments.
Skyhigh
01-01-2007, 08:04 AM
#107
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Cal
40 is great. We can all be happy for that. 400 from each regional for a decade is what is needed to make a real impact on the career. Even so if CAL merges all those who got hired will be on the street and most of those will never fly again.
Towards the end of my Horizon Airlines career a few started to go to the majors. Most were furloughed soon after and now are doing something else.
Skyhigh
Towards the end of my Horizon Airlines career a few started to go to the majors. Most were furloughed soon after and now are doing something else.
Skyhigh
01-01-2007, 08:08 AM
#108
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Gas
SH
i was looking in the stats from AOPA (the link you posted)
and i came out with this:
new ATP from 2004 to 2005 = -168
student pilot=87,213 and instructor=90,555
its evident that to read this stats correctly you need more info
student pilot are not so much cumulative instead instructor yes and you can see they are counting the instructors from 1960
but if you see from 2004 to 2005 there were not even 1000 instructors more
and yes you can say flying as hobby has changed looking the number of student pilots in the 60s or 80s (almost 200,000) but we all know that the price of gas has a large contribution to this.
looking at all these numbers i still havent found your 60K new pilots (ATP) every year
i was looking in the stats from AOPA (the link you posted)
and i came out with this:
new ATP from 2004 to 2005 = -168
student pilot=87,213 and instructor=90,555
its evident that to read this stats correctly you need more info
student pilot are not so much cumulative instead instructor yes and you can see they are counting the instructors from 1960
but if you see from 2004 to 2005 there were not even 1000 instructors more
and yes you can say flying as hobby has changed looking the number of student pilots in the 60s or 80s (almost 200,000) but we all know that the price of gas has a large contribution to this.
looking at all these numbers i still havent found your 60K new pilots (ATP) every year
Say, did you ever get back to me on your current status as a pilot?
Skyhigh
01-01-2007, 08:17 AM
#109
Self Employed.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Career
Back when I started out my goal was to be able to pursue a career that I enjoyed but that also provided a better life for me and my family. The sacrifices and investments required should demand a whole lot more than what the career currently provides. The sad fact is that people view flying as a fun and exciting job that how has become all to easy to achieve.
In six months one can go from zero to hero and there is a loan system in place to make it happen. The job has become so automated and proceduralised that anyone with the ability to rote memorise 20 items can make it through training. The results are that we have a flooded job market and an effective system in place to insure that there will always be more coming. Employers are slashing pay and benefits as fast as they can. No matter how you slice it, there will always be pilot jobs but the future is not bright to be a pilot.
SkyHigh
In six months one can go from zero to hero and there is a loan system in place to make it happen. The job has become so automated and proceduralised that anyone with the ability to rote memorise 20 items can make it through training. The results are that we have a flooded job market and an effective system in place to insure that there will always be more coming. Employers are slashing pay and benefits as fast as they can. No matter how you slice it, there will always be pilot jobs but the future is not bright to be a pilot.
SkyHigh
01-01-2007, 08:52 AM
#110
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Posts: 762
GA is dying and manufacturers are worried. The link below is from the first article that popped up on a search.
http://www.calpilots.org/html/article.php?sid=1617
Despite the interest in sport-pilot training, the number of pilots in the U.S. has been steadily declining for the last 20 years, and that has repercussions through all of aviation, The Wichita Eagle reported on Wednesday. Manufacturers worry that the market for their aircraft won't be there in the future. Airlines and other operators worry that they won't be able to find qualified pilots. And with thousands of very light jets expected to join the fleet in the next few years, the demand for professional pilots will likely grow
As someone mentioned there are more instructors than students now. In 20 years it will be completely gone except for those foolish enough to pursue it as a career. Even now most of the 228,000 active private pilots have professional aspirations. Keep in mind that the demand for pilots might grow however the pay will not. Demand for roofers is always high but the pay rarely leaves minimum wage.
SKyHigh
http://www.calpilots.org/html/article.php?sid=1617
Despite the interest in sport-pilot training, the number of pilots in the U.S. has been steadily declining for the last 20 years, and that has repercussions through all of aviation, The Wichita Eagle reported on Wednesday. Manufacturers worry that the market for their aircraft won't be there in the future. Airlines and other operators worry that they won't be able to find qualified pilots. And with thousands of very light jets expected to join the fleet in the next few years, the demand for professional pilots will likely grow
As someone mentioned there are more instructors than students now. In 20 years it will be completely gone except for those foolish enough to pursue it as a career. Even now most of the 228,000 active private pilots have professional aspirations. Keep in mind that the demand for pilots might grow however the pay will not. Demand for roofers is always high but the pay rarely leaves minimum wage.
SKyHigh
You just proved our point with your own article. Now you state that increased demand for pilots does not increase pilot pay, I have to disagree. Especially when I hear the arguement that their is always someone willing to do it for less, or there are too many pilots so the pay will be low.
With a decrease in total pilots, and an increase in air travel for the Majors and Regionals, plus an increase in a new type of flying, the VLJ, it will have these groups in competition for the now smaller pilot group, which would naturally increase pilot pay.
Saying the pay will not grow with an increased demand for a dwindling pilot pool is defying economics.
Further I stil must disagree with the statement that the majority of Private Pilots have career aspirations. I go down to my local FBO, none of the instructors have those aspirations, and a miniority of the students are looking into it, most of the Private Pilots I have seen fly on the side. The majority of people with boating licenses do not have career aspirations in sailing, and it is the same with Private Pilots.
