Sr. Barco

This is the best source from the list IMO: http://www.aabi.aero/AirlinePilotLaborSupply1.pdf

It's 36 pages long and is an unbiased, statistically based forecast. I disagree with two major assumptions in the report; 1) There will a be net growth in the airline industry, 2) Regulators will not change the playing field. The rest seems very accurate to me.

It's interesting to note they do not consider the issuance of a commercial pilot certificate to have statistical significance on the supply of professional pilots.

block30

Thank you for posting that, I just glanced at a couple of pages, and I now have some stuff to take care of...I will read it later.

Admittedly, I get a little concerned when I see reports put out by aviation University programs, because I worry about how much self-serving bias creeps into their reports. I say that because my own alma mater really touts the pilot shortage, and their motives seem driven by keeping students' butts in seats for the faculty to keep their jobs.

My favorite pilot shortage news bit they put out was about a year ago when American mainline was canceling flights due to pilot staffing. Out comes the faculty telling everyone "This is a sign of the pilot shortage!!" They neglected to mention AA *still* had pilots on furlough. Oops. They faculty knew this, too, but they just conveniently left that part out. The faculty also writes pieces to various media and on new student brochures which lead one to believe that four year university programs are the only way for civilian pilots to make it to the airlines.

block30

It's not as I don't want Jet Doc or others to fly for the airlines if they want. I am reminded of back when I was instructing (and later moved up to a management instructor position). Students would near the end of a rating/certificate, and just *grill* me about why I wasn't signing them off for the checkride. They were spending good money, and not signing them off when they felt ready was tantamount to thievery.

No. They weren't ready. I want what was best for them. Sorry if it seems like I'm being mean and nasty by not signing a person off right this instant.

Then there were instructors who didn't have and were not even working towards IIs or MEIs going around lining up instrument and multi students for themselves. I would tell them, let those instrument and multi students go to instrument and multi instructors. Again-I'm accused of being mean and nasty for telling people-"you're just not ready yet."

Listen-if you get your 1,500 hours you almost certainly WILL have regionals blowing up your phone. Given the turn in rate of the 50 seaters, odds are pretty good your first jet with be 76 seats. Seventy six pax!! What's than an MTOW of, 86,000 pounds? Why is everyone so mad that the world is out to get them?

scottm

Thanks for the analysis, I think these articles and studies still point to a pilot shortage.


Cohen represents the regionals and wants to keep his cushy job. The regionals are running out of pilots, they know it, and he has to make noises about it. Like him or hate him, he and the RAA are reflecting the concerns of the sector of the industry they represent. If they are concerned, it lends credence to the probability that we are headed for a pilot shortage.


Great Lakes was paying poorly and finding pilots up to now, something is changing. If it is as you say, "the free market working", that indicates supply is drying up.


The UND study attempts to explain the drop in pilot supply. The existence of such a study points to the existence of a pilot shortage. It's a good study. If we are losing entrants to pilot training when we need an increase to keep up, a shortage is very likely.


The NBAA article is a response to my urging them to put out some numbers so the industry can prevent a serious problem. In their article they cite the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers. There are nearly half as many non-airline commercial pilots as airline pilots in the U.S., and their demand is expected to be almost twice as much as airline demand. That floored me, I've looked at a lot of studies on pilot supply and demand, and never seen mention of demand outside of the airlines. Clearly this shortage is going to be far more serious than anyone is currently predicting.


I don't see the article on the Air Force coming up in that link. It was originally an article in Janes Defense Weekly, and talks about the lack of interest in being a fighter pilot, even among Air Force Academy students, something unheard of before. Hopefully you can read it and decide if your conclusions are justified: http://www.fighterpilotuniversity.com/****/why-be-a-fighter-pilot


We all know we aren't paid enough, no need to delve into that.

I'm not sure why, but it seems the only two groups not expressing serious concerns about a pilot shortage are the major airlines, and pilots.

scottm

Ok, that link doesn't seem to work when I post it here, not sure why.

Who wouldn’t want to be a US Air Force fighter pilot?

The notion of being a fighter pilot has always been the stuff of childhood dreams, but within the USAF the appeal is fading, argues David Radcliffe

Who wants to be a fighter pilot? If you asked the question 20 years ago, almost everyone would raise their hand, but today this is no longer the case.

The state of the US Air Force’s (USAF’s) fighter force and the morale of its airmen and women have been in a steady spiral
of decline since Chief of Staff General Michael Moseley and Secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynne resigned at the behest of then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in 2008.

So, who wouldn’t want to be a fighter pilot? Apparently at least 900 people as judged by the current training and retention shortage within the air force. The problem is so severe that there are currently 50 open pilot slots at the Air Force Academy and the USAF’s flying training syllabus is being cut by 18% to expedite candidates through the system. Further compounding this is the fact that just 45% of academy students are pilot qualified, down from the previous low of 70%.

While the USAF is not feeding the pipeline with enough new pilots, an even worse problem exists in that the service has fighter pilots leaving in large numbers, either exiting active- duty posts for the Air National Guard (ANG) or Reserves or just getting out completely. Many fighter pilots opt out of the cockpit role due to back-to- back operational cycles and are actually asking for a staff job to build résumés for their next career. There are currently 100 Air Mobility Command pilots in fighter staff jobs due to the shortage of qualified fighter pilots to fill these posts.

Indeed, more than 50% of US pilot training candidates do not want fighter assignments; they want transport or cargo assign- ments to prepare them for a career in the airlines. There is a definite shift away from anything that has long-service commit- ments, demanding training, or regular deployments. This is made even worse by the airlines facing the “most acute short-age of pilots since the 1960s”, as recently reported in the Wall Street Journal. A high-ranking friend of mine recently told me this situation is now “scary”.

That the Federal Aviation Administraion is considering a rule allowing commercial pilots at 1,500 hours flight time but military pilots at 750 hours only exacerbates the problem.

So why are trainee pilots shunning the fast jet community? The post-2008 ‘Qweep’, or career- broadening requirements, are a huge cause. This requires pilots to get their master’s degree, have community involvement, etc, on top of deployment, training, and platform-centric requirements. The USAF has even instituted the Director of Operations Screen- ing Boards and openly says that those not being promoted early are not considered for further enhancement. Thus, in the active- duty air force career broadening needs to be complete in order to compete. Those not selected are, in many cases, simply headed in the direction of the ANG or out of the active-duty air force between the 8- to 11-year mark. A friend of mine in the ANG calls active- duty career broadening the best recruiting tool he has to get pilots to join the guard, as the premium is placed on that and not how capable and proficient the pilot is.

A recent deployment had one fighter squadron augmenting another with 10 pilots. It is hard to believe that one squadron could be that many pilots short. The augmenting squadron had just returned from its own deploy- ment and one of the three pilots who spoke to me said that he is to leave as soon as possible and that the fighter community is a mess. Pilots are getting little flying time: eight to nine sorties a month, although in Europe, with poor weather and no ranges, it is down to two to three sorties with four to five simulator rides. This is not what they signed up for. This low flight time and the impacts of sequestration, which could further cut flight hours and train- ing, could put the force at risk and contribute to future incidents similar to the Aviano Air Base F-16 crash on 28 January that resulted in the death of the pilot.

So what has happened to every kid’s dream job? No matter what anyone says about the new career-broadening activities and other such ‘opportunities’, the fact is that the trend as it relates to pilot retention is headed the wrong way. Even the ‘Home Of The Fighter Pilot’ sign on the front gate at Nellis Air Force Base has been removed, damaging pilot morale even further.

The job of the fighter pilot is to defend the country, and it is not clear how that mission is being served by the current situation. As long as we have a volunteer force, the feelings of those volunteers matter. The USAF’s greatest strength is its people. Many nations have the same or newer variants of the aircraft flown by the United States, but none can come close to employing them in the same integrated manner. It is time to take care of our greatest resource and to address its con- cerns and needs.

David Radcliffe is an Air Power Advocate with the Air Force Association and a member of the Nellis Support Team: a non-profit organisation formed and organised to support Nellis and Creech Air Force Base personnel, activities and operations.

Sputnik

That article is idiotic.

block30

Thanks for updating that link, it was dead when I went to it. From the last commander's call I went to, we were briefed that the pipeline was fat on F-16 pilots-and I believe that was AF wide. That and I think I every interview board the base has run for pilots has always had waaay more than enough applicants. I find this article hard to believe. But, that is just from where I sit.

As for as a shortage goes, I personally believe the crux is in how is a pilot shortage defined? The lack of applicants at jobs paying below 20ish k doesn't raise my alarms, but that is just me.

Sr. Barco

Absolutely no question about that. The operators of regional airlines are known and well documented scumbags. I flew for Hulas Kanodia's Flying Circus for 4 years so I've seen it in action.

I stumbled on this subject of pilot shortage about a year ago while looking at forecast age 65 retirements. The numbers are staggering in my opinion. Add to that the ATP rule, new flight and duty regs, rising costs of learning to fly (costs exceeding inflation by 1.1% since 1990 according one study), declining QOL and lack of interest in being an airline pilot.

The only thing we can conclude for sure is the balloon is about to get squeezed hard. Changes will occur. Whether they will be in favor of labor in general is yet to be seen. Of course that is what we would all love to see.

erjpilot

Pilot shortage= not a chance even at the regional level.

It all looks very clear to me:

1. Legacies/Majors have their pick from the regionals and Mil pilots (thousands of apps).

2. Regionals need to shrink with the phase out of 50 seaters to larger RJ's and they do this by attrition. I see a 40-50% total reduction at the regionals when it's all settled.

It all works out naturally. No shortage unfortunately and getting hired by a premier carrier such as DAL/AA/UAL/SWA/FDX/UPS will continue to be extremely difficult/competetive for the foreseable future.

If anyone disagrees please explain.

JetDoc

I see there is the need of a little background here so I will offer it. I am 46 years old, not a snot nosed kid throwing a " I want it now!" tantrum. I have been flying since 2005 and instructing for a bit over 4 years now at a PT 141 school. I possess an A&P license a CFI, CFII and a MEI. I am a designated check pilot at my school. I have given 13 checkride endorsements and not had a single applicant fail. I have had countless students try to kill me. I have never wrecked an airplane or ever had a certificate action taken against me. I have over 1700 hours TT and meet all ATP mins except cross country. I have paid my dues so if lamenting the fact that the requirements have been overly inflated constitutes "whining", so be it. That's your opinion and your are entitled to it.

What were the requirements when you were hired Block30? And I'm not asking what your qualifications were when you were hired. Just what the FAA required...... The bar has been moved and the law of unintended consequences is starting to rear its ugly head with the sad fact being that there are plenty of us out here qualified and willing to go to work...

As always, with respect...