Slow Times at Sun n Fun :(
#11
Flies for Fun
Joined APC: May 2012
Position: CE-172 Heavy
Posts: 358
Thanks for the note, and please know my post wasn't meant to be an attack on you. I've heard people say that light sport is going to save GA. The major aviation periodicals have also done a good deal of light sport cheer leading. From the way light sport stands right now, light sport is more of a bane than a boon to GA. Stay away, or have your will ready to go and just save the FAA some time and shred your certificates yourself.
#13
Bracing for Fallacies
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
All I'm saying is LSA and the typical prospective sport student require much more deliberate risk management than a typical private student in say a Warrior or 172. Most mom and pop FBOs I know are run by real old school folks, who may be high time pilots, but low in exercising risk management practices. Especially when revenue is scarce. You all have been warned.
#14
LSAs do have a market since the normal production aircraft have DOUBLED in the last 10 years or so, but the LSAs are so expensive and limited that they are just as hard of a sell as the production aircraft that cost 2x as much. The idea is that aircraft would be 50-70K, not 130K+. The Skycatcher was a good example of what not to do IMO. It's virtually a 152 clone with no improved performance or capability. It's similar to the insanity of the VLJ craze. At first everyone and their mom was developing an VLJ and anyone with half a brain could see there was NO WAY the market would support 30 manufacturers all making VLJs. The development cost is staggering. The idea was fine, nothing wrong with it, but the market for it was greatly exaggerated and you'd never sell enough to offset that development cost. The Mustang, Phenom 100, and possibly even the Eclipse once they got it sorted out, are great airplanes for a real niche. What doesn't work is to saturate the market. I see the LSA market in saturation right now. What we need are a few good examples of LSAs that are reliable and offer something specific. These need to sell in volume and establish strong companies and economies of scale. With economy of scale, it can possible achieve something close to the original goal of the LSA aircraft. It doesn't mean that we need a super cheap airplane, but we need maybe 5 different LSAs that will make up 90% of the sales. Although there are some cool and extremely varied LSAs, I doubt most of the current companies will be offering their LSAs in 5 years.
#15
Bracing for Fallacies
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
LSAs do have a market since the normal production aircraft have DOUBLED in the last 10 years or so, but the LSAs are so expensive and limited that they are just as hard of a sell as the production aircraft that cost 2x as much. The idea is that aircraft would be 50-70K, not 130K+. The Skycatcher was a good example of what not to do IMO. It's virtually a 152 clone with no improved performance or capability. It's similar to the insanity of the VLJ craze. At first everyone and their mom was developing an VLJ and anyone with half a brain could see there was NO WAY the market would support 30 manufacturers all making VLJs. The development cost is staggering. The idea was fine, nothing wrong with it, but the market for it was greatly exaggerated and you'd never sell enough to offset that development cost. The Mustang, Phenom 100, and possibly even the Eclipse once they got it sorted out, are great airplanes for a real niche. What doesn't work is to saturate the market. I see the LSA market in saturation right now. What we need are a few good examples of LSAs that are reliable and offer something specific. These need to sell in volume and establish strong companies and economies of scale. With economy of scale, it can possible achieve something close to the original goal of the LSA aircraft. It doesn't mean that we need a super cheap airplane, but we need maybe 5 different LSAs that will make up 90% of the sales. Although there are some cool and extremely varied LSAs, I doubt most of the current companies will be offering their LSAs in 5 years.
Then we have the minimum flight hour requirements to be a sport pilot...plus a much older pilot on average (think about how age affects the senses, mental faculties, and reactions), plus less 'forgiving' aircraft = great idea!!!
#16
I owned a 1956 Cessna 180 for about 18 years. It got to the point where I had to save up just to take her out for short cross country and then pray I didn't break anything. For the first 14 years or so I used to fly that thing like it was a second car. If I needed to get somewhere down the road I just hopped in the 180.
For instance I had a hunting lease down in Texas it would take about 2:45 to fly it. With 100LL @ about $2.00 or even $2.20 it's cost me about $60.00 give or take each way in fuel.
To drive it took 10 hours + and in a 4WD truck that got 18 MPG you'd spend a bit more in fuel plus you'd have to drive 20 hours + round trip. Even with the added expense of general airplane ownership. Given the utility plus the enjoyment I got from flying my bird it was more than worth it to me.
Now I simply can not afford to own that airplane even with world class desire and awesome rationalization skills. I simply don't have enough clams in the bucket to be able to make it happen.Heck I had to let the lease go too. I can't even afford to drive it anymore from a money or a time standpoint.
My dad was a warbird guy when I was growing up in the the 70's and the 80's. I watched the warbird scene go from professional pilots who just loved flying and drinking beer in the hanger and telling flying stories. It was awesome until they got moneyed out of it in the mid to late 80's. Then it became the doctor/ lawyer crowd who had been the cling ons to the professional pilots in the past. Now they were the big cheeses on the warbird front and they started crashing airplanes on a regular basis as they were strictly big money guys with little flying experience. This was when the warbird scene went from a very open fun bunch of dudes and started to become "country club" clicky. It was also when the warbirds starting to meteorically rise in price not to mention fuel costs were going crazy.
Now the Lawyers and the Doctors are mostly moneyed out of the warbird scene and besides the very occasional "normal" guy who was able to hang on to his warbird. It is the ultra rich land developer or some such type who has the warbirds. And it is totally unobtainable to the average Joe a very exclusive crowd for the most part.
G/A is agonal we are just waiting for the body to get cold now. And it's a bloody shame!!
As far as the LSA scene goes I am less than uninterested in any of the current crop of airframes and will not participate as an instructor when it comes to sport pilots. Simply to much liability for my tastes.
Last edited by Airhoss; 04-18-2013 at 07:32 AM.
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