View Poll Results: Minimimum Acceptable Survival Odds
98.5% The same as the Space Shuttle
5
20.83%
90%
1
4.17%
83.33% The same as Russian Roulette
1
4.17%
75%
3
12.50%
50%
1
4.17%
I'd go no matter how bad the odds
9
37.50%
No way, no how I am leaving Earth
4
16.67%
Voters: 24. You may not vote on this poll
Mission to Mars: How much risk is acceptable?
08-10-2011, 06:50 PM
#1
Day puke
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: Out.
Posts: 3,865
Mission to Mars: How much risk is acceptable?
So, I was watching Nova on PBS. They were talking about the risks associated with a manned Mars mission. Assuming you were offered a seat, what odds of survival would you need to go?
08-11-2011, 02:38 AM
#3
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,388
How are the odds calculated? Long-term radiation exposure is a serious life-time cancer risk so that would have to get factored in too unless they are going to drag a lot of really heavy shielding along.
I lost interest in NASA at a certain point in life (family) due to 99% not being safe enough. 99.9% would have been good, maybe even a hair less.
I lost interest in NASA at a certain point in life (family) due to 99% not being safe enough. 99.9% would have been good, maybe even a hair less.
08-11-2011, 02:58 AM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2011
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 961
I tend to agree.
I could die tonight driving home from the airport. Living in a huge city, I wouldn't even get a nod in the paper.
Go big or go home.
If they told me I had a 75% chance of making it round trip, successfully, I'd still give it a shot. But I can imagine it'd be a very lonely feeling knowing that even your voice would take some time to get home.
I could die tonight driving home from the airport. Living in a huge city, I wouldn't even get a nod in the paper.
Go big or go home.
If they told me I had a 75% chance of making it round trip, successfully, I'd still give it a shot. But I can imagine it'd be a very lonely feeling knowing that even your voice would take some time to get home.
08-11-2011, 06:02 AM
#6
Part Time
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: Chief Pilot PC-12NG
Posts: 629
I'm not even going to start. Apparently you have no idea how many machines, and technology that we use on a daily basis originated from the Apollo and Shuttle missions.
I'd spend money for manned space flight any day over the millions of dollars of fluff that are crammed into legislative bills (inseminations of horses).
I'd do the flight to Mars.
I'd spend money for manned space flight any day over the millions of dollars of fluff that are crammed into legislative bills (inseminations of horses).
I'd do the flight to Mars.
08-11-2011, 08:18 AM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: Self employed
Posts: 3,048
08-11-2011, 10:13 AM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: 767A (Ret)
Posts: 6,248
Toward the Unknown
In the early days of Project Apollo, astronauts estimated the odds for the first lunar landing mission as follows:
1/3 -- success
1/3 -- failure, but they get home
1/3 -- they don't get home
http://www.aiga.org/archivedmedia/pa...es_edwards.jpg
1/3 -- success
1/3 -- failure, but they get home
1/3 -- they don't get home
http://www.aiga.org/archivedmedia/pa...es_edwards.jpg
08-11-2011, 05:11 PM
#10
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,388
I feel sad for people who don't understand what the space program is all about. I also have trouble really emphasizing with them at all, their outlook is so narrow and limited.
Human aspirations, dreams, and creativity are fundamental to getting the most out of the life we are given. I'd rather cut all welfare than lose the space program. Paying a bunch of lay-abouts to eat, ***, sleep, watch cable, and die is the waste of money...we might as well be herd animals if that's all we aspire to. Why bother thinking at all?
Human aspirations, dreams, and creativity are fundamental to getting the most out of the life we are given. I'd rather cut all welfare than lose the space program. Paying a bunch of lay-abouts to eat, ***, sleep, watch cable, and die is the waste of money...we might as well be herd animals if that's all we aspire to. Why bother thinking at all?
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