VLJ still alive and kicking
05-18-2011, 04:51 AM
#1
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Joined APC: Mar 2008
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VLJ still alive and kicking
Seems not all VLJs are dying on the vine of evelopment.
This article out today:
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Business | Honda's business jet soars in FAA flight tests | The Detroit News
USMCFLYR
This article out today:
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Business | Honda's business jet soars in FAA flight tests | The Detroit News
USMCFLYR
05-18-2011, 06:54 AM
#2
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VLJ's never had a great business case, it was more of a "build-it-they-will-come" mentality financed by silicone valley tech billionaires. A few major manufacturers got on the bandwagon too...just in time for the big collapse.
The two markets they had envisioned faded fast with the economy...point-to-point charter services and "low-end" multi-millionaires.
The point-to-point microjet airline concept seemed flawed from the start. The big problem that I never saw them overcoming was the need to hire two professional pilots, at least one of whom was turbojet-experienced. Otherwise the cold, hard, realities of flying jets into small airports with circling approaches, bare-bones facilities, etc would make the whole thing non-insurable in short order. Where were they going to get thousands of pilots willing to do that for $30K? Regional pilots can get paid that much, get 15 days off, and go to europe in biz-class on their days off.
The low-end millionaires might come back with the economy, but the assumption was always that these things would be owner-piloted. Many will need a long-term babysitter in the right-seat to get insured.
If the insurance companies are willing to cut these guys some slack initially, I suspect their tune (and prices and operating requirements) will change when the data starts rolling in...
The two markets they had envisioned faded fast with the economy...point-to-point charter services and "low-end" multi-millionaires.
The point-to-point microjet airline concept seemed flawed from the start. The big problem that I never saw them overcoming was the need to hire two professional pilots, at least one of whom was turbojet-experienced. Otherwise the cold, hard, realities of flying jets into small airports with circling approaches, bare-bones facilities, etc would make the whole thing non-insurable in short order. Where were they going to get thousands of pilots willing to do that for $30K? Regional pilots can get paid that much, get 15 days off, and go to europe in biz-class on their days off.
The low-end millionaires might come back with the economy, but the assumption was always that these things would be owner-piloted. Many will need a long-term babysitter in the right-seat to get insured.
If the insurance companies are willing to cut these guys some slack initially, I suspect their tune (and prices and operating requirements) will change when the data starts rolling in...
05-19-2011, 01:28 AM
#3
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Joined APC: Dec 2008
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The microjet airline thing didn't really make much sense, particularly with some of the weight limitations on the VLJs. Why bother when you could get a tuboprop that could take more...
Certain VLJs (Eclipse) kind of scared me from the avonics/electronics space. The high resolution pictures of the flight controls looked like it was put together somewhat haphazardly. In addition, reading the notes on the stuck throttle issue on an Eclipse going into MDW made me feel that they still had a good amount of bugs to address.
Certain VLJs (Eclipse) kind of scared me from the avonics/electronics space. The high resolution pictures of the flight controls looked like it was put together somewhat haphazardly. In addition, reading the notes on the stuck throttle issue on an Eclipse going into MDW made me feel that they still had a good amount of bugs to address.
05-19-2011, 04:27 AM
#4
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This home link was posted on another thread for a different reason, but this video clip fits in perfectly with this subject line. It also just so happens to feature the Honda Jet in the production. The video is a little outdated as they speak about production jets coming in 2010; but the premise is the same.
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Business Travel Redefined - Sleeping Dog Productions
USMCFLYR
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Business Travel Redefined - Sleeping Dog Productions
USMCFLYR
05-19-2011, 06:49 AM
#5
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The microjet airline thing didn't really make much sense, particularly with some of the weight limitations on the VLJs. Why bother when you could get a tuboprop that could take more...
Certain VLJs (Eclipse) kind of scared me from the avonics/electronics space. The high resolution pictures of the flight controls looked like it was put together somewhat haphazardly. In addition, reading the notes on the stuck throttle issue on an Eclipse going into MDW made me feel that they still had a good amount of bugs to address.
Certain VLJs (Eclipse) kind of scared me from the avonics/electronics space. The high resolution pictures of the flight controls looked like it was put together somewhat haphazardly. In addition, reading the notes on the stuck throttle issue on an Eclipse going into MDW made me feel that they still had a good amount of bugs to address.
I agree.
The VLJ thing makes no sense when we have turbo props that are almost as fast and cheaper to run and have loads more cabin space.
05-20-2011, 11:50 AM
#6
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The NASA "SATS" system was designed to push the tiny jet concept and it wasn't just the Microsoft execs. It was definitely a bit far-fetched when it came out in 2005 and just as far-fetched now. But looking down the road 20 years it is possible. It is supposed to relieve the air traffic control system, something we really need. As computers and traffic controls systems evolve this will seem more feasible and we already have ILS-quality approaches to rural airports with WAAS.
All good points, but here are a few more.
1. Air taxi has been shown to be a viable business model. Got a pal in the business and he has expanded through the Recession although he failed to make the jump to VLJs due to the Eclipse debacle.
2. VLJ services make excellent use of retired airline pilots.
3. Private-owner VLJs are a hazard, and I too worry about them flying into little airports. But if they want to pay for the elaborate training they require let them have it and pay for it. This will also help retain some of the dwindling supply of class G airports also by making use of them.
4. VLJs already sell well. Mustangs are one of the hottest sellers Cessna has, the Phenom sells well, and several other manufacturers are plowing ahead with their own models. I have had multiple flight test departments ask me to interview for VLJ programs this year so far, and I am going to yet another interview next week. They are here to stay.
All good points, but here are a few more.
1. Air taxi has been shown to be a viable business model. Got a pal in the business and he has expanded through the Recession although he failed to make the jump to VLJs due to the Eclipse debacle.
2. VLJ services make excellent use of retired airline pilots.
3. Private-owner VLJs are a hazard, and I too worry about them flying into little airports. But if they want to pay for the elaborate training they require let them have it and pay for it. This will also help retain some of the dwindling supply of class G airports also by making use of them.
4. VLJs already sell well. Mustangs are one of the hottest sellers Cessna has, the Phenom sells well, and several other manufacturers are plowing ahead with their own models. I have had multiple flight test departments ask me to interview for VLJ programs this year so far, and I am going to yet another interview next week. They are here to stay.
05-20-2011, 12:34 PM
#7
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
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The NASA "SATS" system was designed to push the tiny jet concept and it wasn't just the Microsoft execs. It was definitely a bit far-fetched when it came out in 2005 and just as far-fetched now. But looking down the road 20 years it is possible. It is supposed to relieve the air traffic control system, something we really need. As computers and traffic controls systems evolve this will seem more feasible and we already have ILS-quality approaches to rural airports with WAAS.
All good points, but here are a few more.
1. Air taxi has been shown to be a viable business model. Got a pal in the business and he has expanded through the Recession although he failed to make the jump to VLJs due to the Eclipse debacle.
2. VLJ services make excellent use of retired airline pilots.
3. Private-owner VLJs are a hazard, and I too worry about them flying into little airports. But if they want to pay for the elaborate training they require let them have it and pay for it. This will also help retain some of the dwindling supply of class G airports also by making use of them.
4. VLJs already sell well. Mustangs are one of the hottest sellers Cessna has, the Phenom sells well, and several other manufacturers are plowing ahead with their own models. I have had multiple flight test departments ask me to interview for VLJ programs this year so far, and I am going to yet another interview next week. They are here to stay.
All good points, but here are a few more.
1. Air taxi has been shown to be a viable business model. Got a pal in the business and he has expanded through the Recession although he failed to make the jump to VLJs due to the Eclipse debacle.
2. VLJ services make excellent use of retired airline pilots.
3. Private-owner VLJs are a hazard, and I too worry about them flying into little airports. But if they want to pay for the elaborate training they require let them have it and pay for it. This will also help retain some of the dwindling supply of class G airports also by making use of them.
4. VLJs already sell well. Mustangs are one of the hottest sellers Cessna has, the Phenom sells well, and several other manufacturers are plowing ahead with their own models. I have had multiple flight test departments ask me to interview for VLJ programs this year so far, and I am going to yet another interview next week. They are here to stay.
So that's business plan? Retired airline pilots? Do they expect 65+ y/o ex-widebody CA's to fly for $10/hr? Really?
I'm not privy to air taxi business plan details but...
- Jet pilots (PICs) cost money...at least a living wage. $50K? If the pilot shortage materializes, airlines can afford to bid more for seat-meat...and amortize that across 30-50+ pax.
- Turbojet aircraft require a certain amount of Mx...the core systems (and two engines) are basically similar between a 777 and a VLJ. The costs scale down some but not enough when you go from 50 (or 30) seats down to 2-3.
- What's the plan for the inevitable regulatory and insurance burdens which will hit after a few 70+ retired airline pilots suffer incapacitation and auger in with a media, sports, or business celeb in the back?
- Security: Biz-Av has barely been able to avoid TSA-style security burdens by claiming intimate knowledge of their customers. How are air taxis going to dodge that bullet? The ATA will line up massive lobbying power and explore every avenue of obstruction if air taxis start to thrive...
If it has a future it's definitely going to be one of those "build-it-they-will-come" scenarios. I hope they have deep pockets, and deeper reserves of patience...
05-20-2011, 01:19 PM
#8
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Don't shoot the messenger, that's who they use according to my contact in the business. Obviously those pilots are not in it for the money. I do not wish to step on any toes reporting the fact these pilots occupy all sorts of desirable GA positions and drive down wages everywhere in GA. They are also the best pilots and the paying public deserves the best.
A question I would ask is what is the air taxi industry going to do when the supply of retirees dries up. They pay about $30-40k a year now, so they have plenty of room to grow in the salary department. An already expensive operation will become even more expensive as it grows. Your point that the air taxi business flies in the face of economics of scale is apparently correct. Flying air taxi will cost more than airlines, no doubt about it. However there are enough rich people or business class who appreciate the personal service and freedom from airline hassles. I do not know what the TSA will eventually do to it, but even the airlines are adopting premium-cost options to buy freedom from security exams.
As for the safety issues they are certain to occur, and one can foresee many incidents resulting in changes to regulations. They are presently in the Part 135 mode so it will be along those lines.
A question I would ask is what is the air taxi industry going to do when the supply of retirees dries up. They pay about $30-40k a year now, so they have plenty of room to grow in the salary department. An already expensive operation will become even more expensive as it grows. Your point that the air taxi business flies in the face of economics of scale is apparently correct. Flying air taxi will cost more than airlines, no doubt about it. However there are enough rich people or business class who appreciate the personal service and freedom from airline hassles. I do not know what the TSA will eventually do to it, but even the airlines are adopting premium-cost options to buy freedom from security exams.
As for the safety issues they are certain to occur, and one can foresee many incidents resulting in changes to regulations. They are presently in the Part 135 mode so it will be along those lines.
05-21-2011, 06:50 AM
#9
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Joined APC: Apr 2006
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Honda didnt buy into the VLJ take over the world theory either. They have also indicated other airplanes were on the horizion when questioned why they built such a large factory complex.
Honda has wanted to make airplanes almost since the beginning of the company. They have put a lot of thought into it, and they have resources.
Honda has wanted to make airplanes almost since the beginning of the company. They have put a lot of thought into it, and they have resources.
