rickair7777

I think that THIS time the numbers and demographics are undeniable...

- Retirements are what they are, and are not going to change again (no age 70)

- GA and training starts are WAAAY down...there are several reasons behind this and no single fix will solve al of them (no financing available, loss of interest in the profession due to lowered compensation and QOL, high fuel costs, etc). This part of the equation is in such bad shape that when the crunch really hits the airlines may have no choice but to start up their own ab-initio programs, the way they do in other countries.

- Military pilots are losing interest in airlines. You will still get a few initial-obligation guys, but nobody that I know in my peer group (post-retirement-eligible officers) has the slightest interest. They are all going for management jobs and/or staying in to 30. Or like USMCFlyer looking to non-airline aviation opportunities.

- Also there really IS a shortage globally, that is going to siphon off some percentage of qualified US pilots. The global shortage is only going to get worse too...as wages go up due to demand, more US pilots will be lured away.

Of course this all applies only as long as fuel prices are reasonable...

stoki

Hope you're right, rickair..

Personally I won't believe it until I am able to pick and choose who to work for, and do it for a respectable wage.

Yes if the perfect storm brews up, there may be a lack of experienced applicants for airlines. But this industry is too volatile, and in the mean time a million things will happen that will slow hiring, and give the training departments time to catch up. A huge **** storm is brewing in the middle-east as we speak, and already fuel prices are jumping.. and if it takes a wrong turn, especially say in a place like Saudi-Arabia , it could be disastrous for fuel prices, and that means the worldwide economy as well.. and that leaves us back at square one.

Just don't believe it will ever happen, looking at things realistically. Maybe there will be more job offers out there, but not a shortage. Europe is saturated with high time guys, or noobies still willing to pay $30k for their own TR for a better chance at a job.. and more continue to do so. Asian countries are putting thousands of their own future pilots through the mill.. it's only a matter of time before they catch up. Here in the U.S, when word gets out about the pilot shortage again, places like ATP will have their hands full once again..only hope in that regard is that 1500hr rule, which I also don't think will hold up if there are no people to fly the planes, they will find a way around it.. always comes down to the bottom line, and in favor of big business.

But I do hope you are right.

dvd1

I personaly think that a pilot shortage is coming. I wouldn't say it's going to be crazy enough as to reach the majors (at least the good ones), but at the regional level, it will defenetely hit. Remember majors can drop their mins to 1000hrs jet (no PIC), or even 500 jet and they'll receive massive numbers of applicants. (Off course this would empty regionals).

Now, if things get real crazy there's the possibility that airlines start doing what airlines in Asia/Middle East are doing: outsourcing to foreign pilots. They basically go to these crew personnel companies and ask for specific typed rated pilots. They pay these companies for the pilots and not sign a contract directly with the pilot or pay the pilot directly. They get the temporary U.S. work permit and when they're through with them (i.e. another downturn comes) they just "return" these pilots.

It sounds like a major ALPA bypass, but remember that the U.S. government will always lean towards "corporations stability" and not towards unions.

Regionals will lobby in the senate and say "it's more important to keep the air transport running than shutting down or filling for chap.11". "We just need to bring foreign pilots to temporary fill the gap of new pilots". "They won't be taking any amercian jobs" (pure B.S. off course)

I know many people here won't like my post, but ALPA has lost a lot of it's bargain power.

I wouldn't doubt that we'll see foreign pilots flying in U.S. companies before seeing regional FOs making 60K/year. (very sad)

rickair7777

That's the real bogeyman, oil. I won't sleep easy until alternative jet fuel production facilities are up and running at commercial volumes.

Unless the wages and QOL improve, they might not get as many noobs as they would like. GA is getting more expensive every day, and lenders have pretty much wised up to the game. Unless the entry-level wages and stability are good enough for borrowers to make their payments reliable, the banks are no longer interested. By the time someone works long and hard enough to save $100K to self-finance a career transition, they are probably a lot wiser...they may not fall for a pilot academy scam if the payoff is $20K job.

You will always have a few trust-fund babies, or clueless kids with equally clueless parents who will second-mortgage the house to pay for ERAU or the like. But I think the word is out on the profession and most folks are getting the message.

I'm not convinced that we are ever going to see a feeding-frenzy of hiring at the majors, but I think there's a possibility of reasonable career progression. If it comes down to a real pilot crunch, the majors will just fold up their regionals, absorb those pilots, shift RJ flying to narrowbodies, reduce frequencies, and drop service to Podunk Falls.

BoilerUP

Where are all these foreign pilots poised to flood the US regional airline ranks going to come from?

I'd wager the vast majority of those pilots imported to Asia & the ME are Americans, with Brits, Aussies & Kiwis thrown in the mix.

CANAM

Why is it I never hear about this disastrous shortage in any other industry? I've never heard anybody say, "you know Jimmy, one day very soon there will be no trial lawyers left because of our aging population."

BoilerUP

There has been much talk the last few years about a shortage of doctors, nurses & accountants (also geologists & certain types of engineers).

TonyWilliams

Because the US pilot economy is so large, there won't be a large influx of foreign pilots, only because there's not a large number of foreign pilots available.

You're wrong on the majority of expat pilots. Americans are not the majority.

CANAM

Then this should explain the shortage of pilots!

rickair7777

Engineers in aerospace and defense are going to be a huge problem soon...they are mostly boomers, few younger folks. And many of them need security clearances, so the government can't just print work visas to solve the problem. A&D companies are vocally concerned about this, they are even ramping up their programs to generate interest in science, tech, engineering, and math in school-age kids.