How Many Months Supply of Excess Pilots?
06-16-2010, 06:46 AM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Capt
Posts: 3,215
How Many Months Supply of Excess Pilots?
Hi!
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...stainable.html
cliff
LFW
Boeing forecasts a need for 448,000 new pilots to enter the industry over the next 20 years, and more than half a million new maintenance engineers.
When the upturn comes - and the industry is already reporting growth - the marketplace may contain about two years' supply of qualified pilots among those furloughed or trained but not yet hired, and rather less slack in the engineer market. Before that time arrives, however, the airlines are going to have to start working out where the new ones will come from,
...I don't think they will...I think they will wait, and hope it turns out for the best, and when the undersupply hits, the hiring departments will all be in panic mode...
because the ab-initio training industry, under-invested for years, will also need to grow massively.
When the upturn comes - and the industry is already reporting growth - the marketplace may contain about two years' supply of qualified pilots among those furloughed or trained but not yet hired, and rather less slack in the engineer market. Before that time arrives, however, the airlines are going to have to start working out where the new ones will come from,
...I don't think they will...I think they will wait, and hope it turns out for the best, and when the undersupply hits, the hiring departments will all be in panic mode...
because the ab-initio training industry, under-invested for years, will also need to grow massively.
cliff
LFW
06-16-2010, 06:55 AM
#2
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,388
This assumes a few things...
1. Sustained economic growth (possible)
2. No green-initiated dampers on airline industry growth (unlikely if the ice caps keep melting)
3. No spikes in fuel prices (who knows?)
4. None of the usual industry-limiting catastrophes (regional wars, epidemic, terrorism) (highly unlikely).
But this might be one of the reasons the ATA/RAA is fighting so hard (successfully so far) to prevent experience-based requirements for airline FO's. If they really believe this perfect storm is going to happen they will need to be able to hire HS grads in June and have them online in August...without ever having set foot in a real airplane cockpit.
Also most of the projected growth over the next few decades is in Asia and the third world, not the US or Europe so it won't help US pilots who actually like living in the US.
1. Sustained economic growth (possible)
2. No green-initiated dampers on airline industry growth (unlikely if the ice caps keep melting)
3. No spikes in fuel prices (who knows?)
4. None of the usual industry-limiting catastrophes (regional wars, epidemic, terrorism) (highly unlikely).
But this might be one of the reasons the ATA/RAA is fighting so hard (successfully so far) to prevent experience-based requirements for airline FO's. If they really believe this perfect storm is going to happen they will need to be able to hire HS grads in June and have them online in August...without ever having set foot in a real airplane cockpit.
Also most of the projected growth over the next few decades is in Asia and the third world, not the US or Europe so it won't help US pilots who actually like living in the US.
06-16-2010, 07:00 AM
#3
Underboob King
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Guppy Commander
Posts: 4,412
This assumes a few things...
1. Sustained economic growth (possible)
2. No green-initiated dampers on airline industry growth (unlikely if the ice caps keep melting)
3. No spikes in fuel prices (who knows?)
4. None of the usual industry-limiting catastrophes (regional wars, epidemic, terrorism) (highly unlikely).
But this might be one of the reasons the ATA/RAA is fighting so hard (successfully so far) to prevent experience-based requirements for airline FO's...if the really believe this perfect storm is going to happen they will need to be able to hire HS grads in June and have them online in August.
Also most of the projected growth over the next few decades is in Asia and the third world, not the US or Europe so it won't help US pilots who actually like living in the US.
1. Sustained economic growth (possible)
2. No green-initiated dampers on airline industry growth (unlikely if the ice caps keep melting)
3. No spikes in fuel prices (who knows?)
4. None of the usual industry-limiting catastrophes (regional wars, epidemic, terrorism) (highly unlikely).
But this might be one of the reasons the ATA/RAA is fighting so hard (successfully so far) to prevent experience-based requirements for airline FO's...if the really believe this perfect storm is going to happen they will need to be able to hire HS grads in June and have them online in August.
Also most of the projected growth over the next few decades is in Asia and the third world, not the US or Europe so it won't help US pilots who actually like living in the US.
Had age 65 not happened, we'd be seeing decent hiring numbers right now and for years to come.
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