rickair7777

Moore's law has reacherd it's practical limit. Computing power growth has tapered off dramatically and even with more processor speed moore's law in no way addresses what you DO with additional processor speed...

Does your current computer do much more for you than it did ten years ago? No. There are new apps available but the real limitation is software...we are not currently making any real leaps in what software can do for us. What is needed to make the next likely leap Artificial intelligence or something very close to it. Processing power alone will not suffice...the most powerful computers in the world are no smarter than my calculator...they can just do a lot more math a lot faster.


Not a chance in hell. Eventually? Yes, but your timeline is ridiculous. I'll try to fin d my previous posts on this subject but there are far to many engineering, beaurucratic, infrastructure, economic, and public perception issues.

The current ground and ATC systems CANNOT handle autonomous airliners. The FAA is trying to implement NextGen by 2020...and that will be nowhere near capable enough for unmanned airliners.

727gm

"8-tracks" or "eight-tracks"

(another Bill Lear invention)

CrimsonEclipse

20 years for cargo? Sure! Possibly sooner.

Just ask Fred Smith's opinion on pilot free/optional aircraft.

30 years for pax? I'd say it'd go down to a single attendant, not pilotless.

Give Cargo systems some time to work the bugs out. When their crash rates drop below pax rates, then expect a single pilot computer babysitter.

As for asking a bunch of pilots for their opinion of pilotless aircraft... The negative reaction is almost assured.

N5139

I find it laughable that, even if such things happen soon (30-50 years, and I don't even see it happening that "soon"), all the "I hate airlines" folks think that there won't be NEW opportunities in aviation. UAV operations will create new types of jobs. Yes, there will be fewer "line pilots," but there will be high-responsibility ground positions that will pay well and HAVE YOU HOME EVERY NIGHT. I would even bet that these positions will be challenging, rewarding, and task-oriented (just like flying!).

Realistically, I think we'll see pipeline patrol, some aerial law enforcement (already happening on the border), and traffic watch transition to unmanned systems within the next 20 years. Oh, and guess who they want to pilot UAVs? PILOTS. As stated earlier, there might be fewer positions per se, but the opportunities will still be there, and will probably be higher-paying!

A lot of you guys who are so adamant about this stuff emphasize "folded arms" and the act of actually flying the aircraft, which is minimal already. Pilots are compensated to think legally now: they work in an incredibly regulated environment, and must address everything from landing on contaminated runways (INCREDIBLY dynamic) to security. Also, they seem to ignore the macrocosmic aspect of the National Airspace System, which has nothing to do with "stick and rudder," but is still incredibly interesting. To see how ASIAS and other data programs are solving traffic/terrain issues in the LA basin is simply amazing, and almost pilot-like (you're trying to manage hundreds of flights, not just one).

I guess the point of my ramblings is to ask each and every one of you to think of the big picture, and think foward.

KC10 FATboy

The reality is, the worlds premier operator of UAVs still has pilots at the controls, all be it, in a shack somewhere. Another reality, they crash a lot. Finally, the USAF goes through extreme pain with the FAA and other countries to even allow these things to fly within their airspace. Having operated at airfields where these things were flying, mixing regular airplanes and UAVs completely mucked up airfield operations. Remember, these things will have to integrate into our existing operations. I doubt that it will be cost effective to build new sterile airfields. And what happens after the first UAV - manned aircraft accident. It's going to happen -- "casual factor was XYZ corporation who had an error in programming code which wasn't found during manufacturing and testing."

Who knows when it will happen, but at some point, our jobs as pilots will become redundant. In a way, they kind of already are. Computers manage a lot of the work that pilots used to do.

I recently watched a special on the design of the new world record setting French TGV train. The designer said, "sure, we could have created it without an engineer, but nobody would ride on a highspeed train without one."

If that's the case, we're a long long way off before we trust computers to autonomously fly us from point A to point B.