Whacker77

I guess it all depends on your definition of a pilot shortage, but I feel there will be the need to aggressively hire pilots over the next ten years. In my opinion, outside events have merely pushed back the start of the shortage. Just think about what has taken place over the last decade.

When I started flying in late 2000, all anyone heard about was the looming pilot shortage. Even into August of 2001, guys were being hired with wet ink on their multi ratings and the majors were doing their fair share of hiring as well. That all changed on 9/11 and it set off the worst decade airlines may ever face.

In the span of just seven years, the airlines faced the realization of a major terrorist attack and the fear it inspired. Just a few months after that the economy was mired in a deep recession that lasted from the end of 2001 and ended in early 2003. In that time, two wars were begun as well. All the while oil was surging and topped out in 2008 at nearly $150 (it was as low as $10 in 1998).

Despite all that regional airlines and some majors were hiring in 2008, but two other events conspired to end any talk of hiring. Most importantly, the failure of Lehman Brothers sparked the greatest economic contraction since the great depression. Even today, we are still in a recession. In late 2008, many here wondered which airlines would even survive.

I also think we can't discount the consequences of the new retirement age. I think we can all agree raising the age to 65 was correct, but I feel it came at the worst time possible. Had it not been instituted in late 2007, I think there would have been attritional hiring all throughout the last three years. Regardless, the large number of pilots who stayed past 60 forced out guys at the bottom who would not have been furloughed if the rule were still 60. It artificially inflated furloughs in my view.

When you consider all of these issues, it's pretty amazing the industry is still standing today. Now that some sort of health is returning to US carriers, the need to add capacity is going to require more pilots. More importantly, the expected retirement glut that would have been going strong right now is just two or three years from beginning. If you fly any of the majors, especially the widebodies, there are a lot of older pilots flying those aircraft.

The point I want to make is this. There are a lot of guys in their late 50's and early 60's working for the majors. Eventually, they are going to retire and that will open spots. Maybe there won't be a "shortage", but there is going to be a great need for new pilots. Every year more and more people choose to fly and that's only going to continue. This is just my view, but a lot of hiring is around the corner. If it weren't, airlines wouldn't have lobbied so hard for the 65 rule.

TonyWilliams

Have you seen the statistics to support this statement? I'm going to guess not.



Why would airlines want a top of the pay scale 65 year old, when they can have a $35/hr new hire? Hiring obviously will be cranking up in Dec 2012 for the retiring major airline pilots, and that may mean lots of regional captains will fill those slots.

But it doesn't guarantee a hiring spree at the regional, entry level position. Too many variables there.

Blueskies21

Actually I think the data does support that new people are starting even still. If you look at Knowledge test statistics (perhaps not the best indicator but it is some indication of start/progress).. While 2009 (the most recent year with data available) DOES show less tests given in the order of 98,000 vs a recent peak of 119k in 2007, I would argue it's not the magnitude less that many would have you believe, it's roughly 20% less, 20% that could very easily be absorbed by the contractions in capacity that the airlines are currently favoring.

I'll grant you that's not the best data there ever was, and if you have other data I'd be interested to see it.

Whacker77

I doubt anyone will see this now that the thread has been moved, but my comments about the number of people flying were misinterpreted. I was not talking about more people learning to fly. I was talking about about more and more people choosing to travel to their destinations on airlines.

DYNASTY HVY

Pilot shortage I would be willing to say 'NO' ,a shortage of well paying pilot positions then I would say 'YES '.

ThrustMonkey

You sure about that statement or is that a guess? From what I hear from ALOT of regional captains now is that since the clock was set back 5 years with age 65, their window of opportunity is now closed in that financially its not possible to take the pay cut and lower QOL to go back to the right seat at a major if hired. No I think the majors will be in for a bit of a shock to see that many regional CA say no thanks

TonyWilliams

Like is the trend, the most junior ones will go to majors, and the most senior will homestead with their seniority.