Israel
10-09-2023, 05:46 PM
#71
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,050
True, but in recent history specific conditions have been required...
1. Inherently hierarchical, top-down societies. Germany and Japan, yes. Arabs, not so much.
2. Catastrophic imposition of force. Either wall-to-wall invasion with a lot of scorched earth, or the employment of science-fantasy super weapons which should not have plausibly existed in the minds of the enemy.
That said, people are still human. It was reasonably assessed that we *could* have molded the Iraqi society in our image if we had stayed for two generations and rigorously ensured that democratic institutions functioned and were protected. We just would have had to stay for 50 years, in force.
1. Inherently hierarchical, top-down societies. Germany and Japan, yes. Arabs, not so much.
2. Catastrophic imposition of force. Either wall-to-wall invasion with a lot of scorched earth, or the employment of science-fantasy super weapons which should not have plausibly existed in the minds of the enemy.
That said, people are still human. It was reasonably assessed that we *could* have molded the Iraqi society in our image if we had stayed for two generations and rigorously ensured that democratic institutions functioned and were protected. We just would have had to stay for 50 years, in force.
10-09-2023, 06:42 PM
#72
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,283
Culture is imposed from the top-down. Unquestionably. Religion, politics, fashion, etc.
"We, are the makers of manners, Kate" (Henry V, Shakespeare: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87CPVSXhTws)
American's weren't interested in reforming a state (Iraq) with massive occupation over many decades. We were told to "shop, go about your normal lives, we got this". G.H.W.B. [paraphrased]
----------
The issue at hand:
What are the Israelis prepared to do?
Just as America had the world's sympathy after 9/11, the world is aching for the pain the Israeli's feel right now.
We went all out on GWOT. Killed millions, spent trillions. No [lasting] effect. Global goodwill squandered. Tens of thousands of the US best squandered (if you count "contractors", i.e., US mercenaries doing the real dirty/war crime work, and I do.)
What are the Israelis supposed to do here? Turn the other cheek? Nuke a couple of cities (economical at least)?
I've no answers. Paying Arab nations to take all inhabitants of the Gaza Strip seems rational, but unlikely in the extreme.
A multi-decade re-education and re-investment plan doesn't seem very likely.
(Enjoyed the book "The Parafaith War" by L.E. Modesitt Jr. Sci Fi theme, thinly veiled allusion to this f-ing mess. Civilized world vs. a theocracy)
"We, are the makers of manners, Kate" (Henry V, Shakespeare: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87CPVSXhTws)
American's weren't interested in reforming a state (Iraq) with massive occupation over many decades. We were told to "shop, go about your normal lives, we got this". G.H.W.B. [paraphrased]
----------
The issue at hand:
What are the Israelis prepared to do?
Just as America had the world's sympathy after 9/11, the world is aching for the pain the Israeli's feel right now.
We went all out on GWOT. Killed millions, spent trillions. No [lasting] effect. Global goodwill squandered. Tens of thousands of the US best squandered (if you count "contractors", i.e., US mercenaries doing the real dirty/war crime work, and I do.)
What are the Israelis supposed to do here? Turn the other cheek? Nuke a couple of cities (economical at least)?
I've no answers. Paying Arab nations to take all inhabitants of the Gaza Strip seems rational, but unlikely in the extreme.
A multi-decade re-education and re-investment plan doesn't seem very likely.
(Enjoyed the book "The Parafaith War" by L.E. Modesitt Jr. Sci Fi theme, thinly veiled allusion to this f-ing mess. Civilized world vs. a theocracy)
Last edited by DeltaboundRedux; 10-09-2023 at 07:09 PM.
10-09-2023, 07:06 PM
#73
Orbis Non Sufficit
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 735
This is beyond f'ed up, but go ahead and make up a hypothetical government with policies infuriating enough to make you want to take up arms against a very capable modern military, and you'll see a checklist of Israeli policies.
- Literally lock you into one area and restrict your freedom of movement
- Gov't sanctioned poverty
- Restrict supplies and aid to said poverty inflicted areas
- Allow it's citizens to steal your land, destroy your livelihood and take your homes
- Drop bombs on your neighborhood from time to time
- Literally be a second class citizen with no voting rights and no representation
- Kill your neighbors with zero chance of accountability or justice
- Restrict access to your religion's most holy sites
- Literally lock you into one area and restrict your freedom of movement
- Gov't sanctioned poverty
- Restrict supplies and aid to said poverty inflicted areas
- Allow it's citizens to steal your land, destroy your livelihood and take your homes
- Drop bombs on your neighborhood from time to time
- Literally be a second class citizen with no voting rights and no representation
- Kill your neighbors with zero chance of accountability or justice
- Restrict access to your religion's most holy sites
Do unto others as the SS did unto you.
Sure, not an exact analogy, but becoming very, very close. The only thing missing is the Zyklon B……
10-09-2023, 07:55 PM
#74
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Oh yes, the flare up in Israel is all Joe's fault. I didn't realize this conflict was new in 2021! I'm glad you're here to provide such unbiased analysis.
And my point still stands. Russia income off oil in April was 8.1B. Prior to western sanctions, it was 22B. To claim like the Russia/Ukraine conflict has no effect on the global economy while somehow claiming the Israeli/Palestinian conflict will someone collapse the global economy because, reasons, shows how little you know.
And my point still stands. Russia income off oil in April was 8.1B. Prior to western sanctions, it was 22B. To claim like the Russia/Ukraine conflict has no effect on the global economy while somehow claiming the Israeli/Palestinian conflict will someone collapse the global economy because, reasons, shows how little you know.
Not all Joe's fault; but definitely some of the blame lies with Joe and his band of incompetents. For both Ukraine and Israel. This wouldn't have happened under a stronger POTUS. And the blame also goes to all Americans who have not held this administration accountable for their extremely weak foreign policy.
Your point on the 'embargo' and negative impacts on Russia is incorrect.
You have no idea of how much Russia exports and the value of those exports, the only people who know how much they're actually exporting and the value of those exports are the Russians. There are likely quite a few barrels that are exported that are not accounted for. Just like Iran's exported oil that wasn't counted during the embargo on their oil
As for the value of their exports, Russia no longer accepts the dollar for their oil so you're trying to compare apples to kumquats. A lot of games can be played with the value of their 'accoounted for' exports. https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...es-2023-07-03/
This European think tank indicates no reduction in Russian exports as of earlier this year. https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/russ...de-oil-tracker And that's trackable oil; we don't know how much isn't/can't be tracked.
Finally, I never stated that the global economy will collapse. Here's the EXACT quote:
You, on the other hand, seem to indicate that there's no way that this conflict could cause a worldwide economic collapse, as Ukraine is (in your mind) much more of a problem and there has been little negative impact from that conflict. You have ignored my Strait of Hormuz comments so I assume you see no risk of it being shut down by Iran. Ignorance is bliss.
10-09-2023, 08:18 PM
#75
Disinterested Third Party
Joined APC: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,262
The USA.
Go figure.
Of the 13 OPEC nations, how many are in the middle east?
Five.
Go figure.
10-09-2023, 08:29 PM
#76
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,050
You, on the other hand, seem to indicate that there's no way that this conflict could cause a worldwide economic collapse, as Ukraine is (in your mind) much more of a problem and there has been little negative impact from that conflict. You have ignored my Strait of Hormuz comments so I assume you see no risk of it being shut down by Iran. Ignorance is bliss.
Their ability to *effectively* close the strait to commerce is not in question. All they really have to do is toss a few mines (or mine-looking objects) in the water, and Lloyds yanks the SoH insurance from all the VLCC/ULCC operators, ships drop anchor, and the oil stops. It will take a while to sort that out... sink the IR navy, destroy Bandar Abas, scud hunt asymmetric mine-laying caps, sweep the mines, get everything moving again.
10-10-2023, 06:12 PM
#78
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,283
Unless it's WWIII. The US famously "floated to victory on a sea of oil" in WWII.
Nice to think that the US will have plenty of oil for domestic consumption if the balloon goes up.
10-10-2023, 06:58 PM
#80
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2022
Posts: 148
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