CBreezy

Yes, obviously a two state conflict that spreads to be a regional conflict will certainly have negative economic consequences. But in terms of pure scale, the current Russian/Ukraine crisis currently has much higher stakes. Especially because our own sanctions have had negative repercussions on our own economy. Iran is certainly interested in mixing it up but I think the Saudis are too smart to get involved in what would surely escalate the conflict and drag us into the war.

Andy

Not an if for Iran. However, Mossad's a bit more subtle than Putin when eliminating their enemies.
The Strait of Hormuz is problematic. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/05...ait-of-hormuz/

Anyone who thinks that Ukraine is anywhere as important as the Middle East must think that we're weaning ourselves off of fossil fuels.
Ukraine is unimportant compared to current events.

CBreezy

Tell me, what did we do to Russia when they invaded Ukraine and what were/are the global economic consequences?

Andy

LOL! You were one of the guys saying that Russia would lose in a few months. I told you and others the Ukraine conflict would drag on for quite a while.

What we didn't do is send a bunch of military to the Ukraine area, like the Gerald R Ford Carrier Group. https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...mediterranean/

Ukraine just isn't important compared to the Middle East region.

CBreezy

I've literally never said Russia would lose, let alone in a few months.

Also, you didn't answer the question so I'll help you out. If a global economic meltdown isn't encountered when one of the world's largest energy exporters is embargoed, then a small conflict in Israel isn't going to have nearly as big of ripple effects...unless the conflict spreads..

DeltaboundRedux

Love to hear from the peanut gallery about how Israel is going to identify and liquidate a few thousand Arabs hiding in a civilian population of a roughly 2 million hostile civilians without committing war crimes on a scale that can't be hidden. Or taking mass casualties themselves.

I'm told that the US Marines successfully did this during the Second Battle of Fallujah in 2004 by ordering every non-combatant (about 300,000) to leave the city before the fireworks started. Any adult male left was fair game for sniper target practice and artillery barrages. Totally worked, too, because Iraq is now a flourishing, pro-American democracy.

Small problem here: nobody, and I mean NOBODY wants to take Palestinians (roughly 1 million in Gaza City, 2 million in the entire Gaza strip) in as refugees. We don't call it an "internment camp" or "concentration camp", but if the shoe fits...

I've no solutions. But the "Destroy this Mad Brute Crowd" has an exit strategy, surely? (Yeah, the poster below is triggering...implies low IQ, racism, rape, brutal violence attacking an implied superior innocent...as it's intended. The old memes are the best memes)

(fascinating stuff here about the Gaza strip, demographics, poverty, fertility, literacy (this is pretty high, actually), etc. The names and amount of terrorist organizations reminds me of that "Life of Brian" skit .."Judean's People's Front?!?...we're the People's Front of Judea!" )

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbo...es/gaza-strip/

Excargodog

The last time a totally screwed up culture that had committed innumerable war crimes (including the deaths of 15 million Chinese)

https://youtu.be/dPwoknKVnxs?si=H5FLldwn73vSpusu

and had a tendency to fight to the last person (military or civilian) was compelled to change its culture was in 1945 required two nuclear weapons destroying two cities and killing nearly 200,000 mostly civilians. It did, however, terminate WWII without an invasion if the Japanese Home Islands which would have probably cost even more lives.



So yeah, Palestinian culture no doubt COULD be changed as well. All depends on what you are willing to do to change it.

Andy

Embargo? Surely you're not that stupid. Russian oil continued to flow unabated. India and China became their main customers. Even Europe is still getting nat gas from Russia. https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2023-09-05/
All of that Russian oil just flowed to different countries. By the way, the G7 put a price cap on Russian oil; not exactly an embargo.

The Strait of Hormuz is another story. More than 20% of the world's oil flows through the Straits. One would be a fool to think that the conflict will be contained to the borders of Israel.

This is what happens when we elect a feckless head of state and he surrounds himself with incompetent senior executives who are more concerned about wokeness than running a superpower.

DeltaboundRedux

National cultures can indeed be changed.

Germany is the poster child: from Lebensraum to marching/protesting for US BLM in a mere 70 years.

Enormous costs in blood and treasure however. Lets not speak of how every woman between 8 and 80 were treated oh-so-tenderly in East Germany by our Soviet army allies as the lines between east and west solidified. Exact same thing that is spurring outrage on this OP, one might note.

(The Morgenthau Plan not implemented at least.. yet. TBD. Those Huns are darned fortunate the Cold War erupted, just saying. A suspicious mind would look at the NS pipeline popping and wonder.)

Japan did much better, of course. Their invasion of China was awful, but the communists were much, much worse. Sticky wicket, that business. Jeebus. Civil wars are a nightmare. Civil war + communist wins? "Suck start a bullet", as the saying goes.
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Regardless: Israel isn't going to commit to a long term rebuilding/re-education plan for the Gaza Strip with an aim towards eventual integration as an independent nation state with the full privileges and responsibilities as a member of the free world.

I'd love to know what their objectives are, what "our" objectives are, and what the end game/exit strategy looks like.

Summarily executing 10,000 a-holes (Yay!, unironically) and 50,000 civilians (emphatic "BOO!") + breeding another generation of extremely angry Palestinians isn't going to fix anything.

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Whole area needs to be shut down. Arab states need to step up and take these people in. Not going to happen in our lifetimes, because many, many reasons.

CBreezy

Oh yes, the flare up in Israel is all Joe's fault. I didn't realize this conflict was new in 2021! I'm glad you're here to provide such unbiased analysis.

And my point still stands. Russia income off oil in April was 8.1B. Prior to western sanctions, it was 22B. To claim like the Russia/Ukraine conflict has no effect on the global economy while somehow claiming the Israeli/Palestinian conflict will someone collapse the global economy because, reasons, shows how little you know.