Hubcapped

2 interesting points today:

1st patriot intercept was reported to be in defense of itself. Its in kyiv apparently.

Gains around bahkmut threaten encirclement of wagner. However both ukraine and US military personnel are stating that these are still defensive in nature to “shape” the battlefield for future offensives.

Hubcapped

As of yet unsubstantiated rumors indicate the patriot was damaged by the new hypersonic cruise missle.

russia is assessed to not have any more offensive ability this season

the ukranians are waiting for the mud to dry

TransWorld

Are there not multiple Patriot batteries?

Hubcapped

there must be, the US reprt was vague and said “may have been damaged”. So not a k-kill i guess.

Keeping up with it daily, it really feels like the Russians are in disarray atm. We shall see

Excargodog

The US, I believe, has provided only one (1) Patriot battery. But a Patriot Battery has multiple parts:


I haven’t the vaguest idea what part the Russian missile may (or may not) have hit, the usual target is the targeting radar, but a single battery is usually deployed in a regional air defense role.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericteg...a-gamechanger/


If the Russians are actually TARGETTING the Patriot battery with Kinzhal missiles they are using $4 million missiles to try to destroy a $1.1 Billion battery while the battery is using $4-6 million missiles (depending upon which PAC missile they are firing) to defend against the $4 billion missile.
A lot of this - as the Forbes article indicates) appears to be more symbolic support of the Ukraine than anything else. It is unlikely to be any sort of a game changer in and of iytself, merely replacing the Ukraine’s now depleted supplies of other missiles.

TransWorld

CNN reports:

Ukraine has received at least two Patriot systems, one from the United States and one from Germany, to enhance its air defenses, which have previously been unable to intercept more modern Russian missiles such as the Kinzhal.

rickair7777

They have at least those two. Possibly more.

Kinzhal costs way more than $4M, at least $10M but IIRC that relied on western components. So who knows what the cost to replace inventory is now.

Kinzhal, as I've said before, is not a "hypersonic weapon" in the context of new technology that everybody likes to get excited about these days. It is simply an air-launched short-range ballistic missile. Pretty much all BM's go hypersonic on the way back down. That's WW-II technology (German V-2).

What Kinzhal does have going for it is that by virtue of being air-launched it can in theory be a multi-axis threat, and many air defense systems are limited to a specific sector or axis. This includes patriot but a quick glance at the battle-field geometry shows that the air launch sector available to RU isn't 360 degrees unless they launch from other countries' airspace.

While an anti-radiation missile normally guides on the radar emitter I do not recall that kinzhal has that type of seeker. IIRC it's old-school inertial to video terminal guidance, presumably with GPS updating. That's not useful for targeting a mobile tactical target unless you know precisely where it is at time of launch. It's possible to do that with intel systems or even HUMINT.

Hubcapped

You are missing a couple key points.
1. The west has more resources so the “cost” per unit is not equivalent
2. It is an active and effective part of the ukranian IADS. The radar system alone is a very capable early warning system.
3. The psychological impact of having 2 patriots in theater will impact russian planning cells targeting matrix.
4. if pushed up they will create a no fly zone over the ukrainian forces (if they haven’t already), once they are comfortable with how to operate them.

symbolic is not appropriate IMO, as this system is a very capable elint machine, early warning system, and airspace denial.

Think it all the way through both strategically and tactically. One patriot battery radar is worth its weight in gold, much less 2

rickair7777

This is correct. Patriots are a big deal for Israel, and their problem may be worse than UA's problem.

Hubcapped

these are good points, i didnt think of the fact that they only have to defend about a 180 degree front. That further enhances the patriot impact.

i remember when i was stationed at osan, you could see all the patriots sitting out there. They really harped on making sure your IFF was up and running on the RTB from REALLY far out out. That was 15 years ago. Im sure things have only gotten more advanced (pending which missile we gave ukraine of course).

i in no way have clarity of truth, but the russians are in complete disarray around bahkmut if you read all the conflicting reports from their MoD and wagner. Maybe its all bull rap, but me thinks the ukranians are going to go for it soon.