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Old 12-23-2022, 07:07 AM
  #61  
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Originally Posted by dera
This is up there with some of the worst Infowars conspiracy nonsense I've ever heard in my life.
Yeah, and Lee Harvey Oswald killed John F Kennedy and was acting alone.
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Old 12-23-2022, 07:11 AM
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Whether or not there is propaganda flying or not from either side(and there is from both), it’s hard to avoid the fact that this is a EUROPEAN problem. They have for a half century or better underfunded their own defense, even moreso since the fall of the USSR. With a GDP equal to that of the US, they still don’t cover a fraction of the money necessary for their defense. We already have troops in Europe and half of Africa. Maybe it’s time for the Europeans to deal with their own problems. For a change.
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Old 12-23-2022, 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Whether or not there is propaganda flying or not from either side(and there is from both), it’s hard to avoid the fact that this is a EUROPEAN problem. They have for a half century or better underfunded their own defense, even moreso since the fall of the USSR. With a GDP equal to that of the US, they still don’t cover a fraction of the money necessary for their defense. We already have troops in Europe and half of Africa. Maybe it’s time for the Europeans to deal with their own problems. For a change.
While that sounds lovely, the US government is not in the business of letting Europe make their own decisions (nor face the subsequent consequences). We will continue our European occupation until they find the balls to kick us out or until our eventual collapse.
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Old 12-23-2022, 07:52 AM
  #64  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Whether or not there is propaganda flying or not from either side(and there is from both), it’s hard to avoid the fact that this is a EUROPEAN problem. They have for a half century or better underfunded their own defense, even moreso since the fall of the USSR. With a GDP equal to that of the US, they still don’t cover a fraction of the money necessary for their defense. We already have troops in Europe and half of Africa. Maybe it’s time for the Europeans to deal with their own problems. For a change.
Well anyone with any insight who pays attention knows that allowing either western europe or the pacific rim to fall to tyranny would have disastrous consequences for the world order and global economy... we are inextricably tied to the later. It's fairly obvious that it's less costly for us to prop those guys up than it would be to go isolationist. We *could* do that, but any reasonable calculus would show about a 50% reduction in US GDP (that's assuming we still do business with our neighbors in the Americas).

Even if the western europeans win the fight on their own, the global disruption would still be catastrophic for the duration. And as history has shown, we'd probably get sucked in eventually anyway. We learned from the last two times that it's better to mount a strong deterrence than to try to dig occupied allies out of deep hole.

Relatively cheap insurance. Yes, the euros take advantage of it, but that's a diplomatic problem. And I think they just got a wakeup call.
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Old 12-23-2022, 08:29 AM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Relatively cheap insurance. Yes, the euros take advantage of it, but that's a diplomatic problem. And I think they just got a wakeup call.
That’s not a diplomatic problem, our state department largely IS the problem.

https://www.armytimes.com/tags/ameri...ops-in-europe/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2021/08/17/10-us-investments-in-afghanistan-that-didnt-pan-out/?sh=68c2f94a374c

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3078056/fact-sheet-us-defense-contributions-to-europe/


I’m old school. If someone attacks us beat the snot out of them and leave them bruised and bleeding to contemplate the enormity of their sins. Don’t rehabilitate them beyond their wildest dreams. Especially if they were never ‘habilitated’ to begin with.

Time to stop being the world’s policeman:

https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/articles

Nor is it cheap - relatively speaking or otherwise.
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Old 12-23-2022, 08:52 AM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Well anyone with any insight who pays attention knows that allowing either western europe or the pacific rim to fall to tyranny would have disastrous consequences for the world order and global economy... we are inextricably tied to the later. It's fairly obvious that it's less costly for us to prop those guys up than it would be to go isolationist. We *could* do that, but any reasonable calculus would show about a 50% reduction in US GDP (that's assuming we still do business with our neighbors in the Americas).

Even if the western europeans win the fight on their own, the global disruption would still be catastrophic for the duration. And as history has shown, we'd probably get sucked in eventually anyway. We learned from the last two times that it's better to mount a strong deterrence than to try to dig occupied allies out of deep hole.

Relatively cheap insurance. Yes, the euros take advantage of it, but that's a diplomatic problem. And I think they just got a wakeup call.
Painting with a relatively wide brush there when you combine all "euros" in that pile.
France and UK have nukes. No-one will attack them. All Baltic countries exceed the NATO recommended 2% GDP spending. Of the new (pending) members, Finland has one of the most capable military forces in Europe.

Germany needs to get their act together, and schnell. They have underspent for 70 years and as we are seeing now, their "ostpolitik" ended up being a disaster.

So, not all of Europe is as bad as you are saying.
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Old 12-23-2022, 10:34 AM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by dera
Painting with a relatively wide brush there when you combine all "euros" in that pile.
France and UK have nukes. No-one will attack them. All Baltic countries exceed the NATO recommended 2% GDP spending. Of the new (pending) members, Finland has one of the most capable military forces in Europe.

Germany needs to get their act together, and schnell. They have underspent for 70 years and as we are seeing now, their "ostpolitik" ended up being a disaster.

So, not all of Europe is as bad as you are saying.



The biggest economies in the EU are Germany, France, Italy, Spain,and the Netherlands , making up approximately 45% of the totalEU GDP. None of these countries remotely pull their weight, despite France including in its budget the Gendarmarie which in reality is just a national police force. Highestbypercentage historically has been the perennial poor man little Greece, but only because they and fellow NATO member Turkey have been trading insults since ancient times.

But yeah, Germany didn’t have much even before the demise of the USSR and their unification and have considerably less now. Their estimate is that they have ammunition for two days of fighting.

https://www.dw.com/en/puma-tanks-unu...ion/a-63955452

And inadequate logistics to keep their equipment operational.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...-is-faltering/


The Italians and French are not noticeably better:

http://www.italianinsider.it/?q=node/10890

https://www.thelocal.fr/20220316/analysis-how-powerful-is-the-french-military/


And building military capability is a long lead time activity. You can’t get more modern weapons and train people to use them overnight. Not after a half century of underfunding. Especially when you renegeon your promises to do so:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...s-ukraine-war/


Germany backtracks on defense spending promises made after Ukraine invasion
Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to meet long ignored military spending targets of 2 percent of GDP.
BY HANS VON DER BURCHARD AND GABRIEL RINALDI
DECEMBER 5, 2022 4:54 PM CET

BERLIN — Germany on Monday walked back its promise to swiftly raise defense spending to at least 2 percent of its economic output — breaching the key commitment made days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to become a more serious military force.

Berlin also sought to play down internal warnings about delays to a flagship procurement of new fighter jets.

During a government press conference, Chief Spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit scaled down expectations for Germany’s defense spending, telling journalists that the 2 percent target would be missed not only this year, but also likely next year: “It’s still open whether that [goal] will be achieved” in 2023, Hebestreit said, adding that his “cautious expectation” was that Germany would still meet the target within this legislative period, which ends in 2025.
Italy is also reneging:

ROME – As the Ukraine war grinds on, Italy is renewing its vow to meet a NATO spending target of two percent of gross domestic product but has confirmed it will delay it by four years amid a domestic political row over budgets.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Thursday Italy would boost spending from the current 1.4 percent of GDP to hit the target by 2028, rather than the 2024 deadline NATO members agreed to meet in 2014.
By confirming the date had been pushed back, Draghi appeared to solve a row with a member of his ruling coalition, the Five Star party, which threatened to oppose a pending parliamentary vote on the matter over concerns the cash would be better used on social programs.The spat prompted commentators to predict a possible collapse of the government, until Draghi announced 2028 was now the confirmed date, adding that 2024 had been only “an indication, not an objective.”

Last edited by Excargodog; 12-23-2022 at 10:49 AM.
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Old 12-23-2022, 01:44 PM
  #68  
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How the Netherlands Is Spending Billions More on Defense

Soldiers get a raise, the Air Force six F-35s and four Reaper drones.
Nick OttensJune 5, 2022

The Dutch government is raising defense spending to nearly €20 billion in order to meet NATO’s 2-percent target.

The ruling four-party coalition (which includes my own liberal party) increased military spending from €12 to €14 billion prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is adding another €15 billion over the next three years, which should be enough to reach 2 percent of GDP by the time of the next election in 2025.


Start with personnel. The Dutch military employs some 41,000 soldiers and 27,000 civilians. There are almost 9,000 job openings.

In 1990, the country had 57,000 professional soldiers and 46,000 conscripts. The draft was abolished in 1997.

The average military salary is €3,800 per month, which is higher than the national median wage. But young soldiers are underpaid. They make less than minimum wage, which at least partly explains the high number of vacancies.

All wages will rise by 8.5 percent with a bonus for the lowest-paid. Their wages should go up by as much as 20 percent.

In addition, the army will stock up on ammunitions, fuel and gear.

Not enough weapons

The Dutch armed forces lost the bulk of their heavy equipment in two rounds of cuts, one after the Cold War and another during the Great Recession.

The Netherlands used to have more than 900 tanks. It sold all but eighteen, and they are part of a joint Dutch-German tank battalion.

At its peak, the Netherlands operated 213 F-16 fighter jets. 68 remain, and they are being phased out in favor of the F-35. Because the new jet is more expensive, the Netherlands is buying fewer.

Three out of four artillery brigades have been cut. The Dutch Navy sold eight of its sixteen frigates.

The lack of matériel is so dire that the military admits it can no longer defend Dutch territory, including in the Caribbean. More out of necessity than by choice, it has specialized in peacekeeping, but after taxing operations in the former Yugoslavia and Afghanistan it can barely manage those anymore either. The Dutch Court of Auditors reported in 2018 that soldiers deployed to Mali had to “improvise” to make up for lack of equipment.
https://atlanticsentinel.com/2022/06...re-on-defense/

And then there is Belgium…

https://www.brusselstimes.com/341401...s-armed-forces





Dedonder visiting the Beauvechain Military Air Base in Wallonia. Credit images: Belga Ludivine Dedonder is used to being called ‘The General’ at home and, given her job as Belgium’s Defence Minister, it seems appropriate. And she insists she is up to the job at hand, whether being a mother or a minister. “Life has taught me that people who work hard and believe in themselves can achieve anything they want,” she says. “My parents taught me to study and work hard, and it has paid off.”

As a former TV anchor who has followed a well-trodden path in Belgium of journalists moving into politics, Dedonder has swapped a TV ratings war for the real thing. Top of her to-do list is ensuring Belgium rebuilds its defence.

But chatting over coffee at Brussels’ grand Egmont Palace, a neoclassical pile which, today houses the Belgian defence ministry, she is relaxed about the challenge. “One does not have to be in the military to be a good Defence Minister,” she says. “I have a view from outside the defence world, so I bring a new approach which can help me to see things from other perspectives. It helps to get things moving and get things done.”

Appointed by Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo a year ago, her responsibilities include issues not normally associated with the military, such as floods and health pandemics.

Dedonder’s current tenure at the Defence Ministry comes at a critical time, as the conflict in Ukraine has brought war back to Europe, even raising the spectre of nuclear war.


When pressed on this, Dedonder blames her predecessors. “The previous government had not done that,” she says, before emphasising that. “We’ve turned that page and started reinvesting in our armed forces, in personnel, investments, equipment and infrastructure.”

For some, including Belgian defence expert Wannes Verstraete from Egmont, the Royal Institute for International Relations, this is a “step in the right direction” yet still “insufficient if Belgium wants to credibly contribute to collective defence.”

But Dedonder says the important thing is “not to spend more but to spend better.” The Belgian army is, she says, “widely appreciated” for its high operational output on land, sea and air. In late October, she launched a new cyber command centre, “an important step to be able to face the current hybrid threats.”

She accepts Belgium is a small country and its armed forces are not built to operate on large theatres all alone. That, she adds, is why Belgium mostly operates within European, NATO or United Nations framework operations – although its navy collaborates with the Netherlands and the army with France.

More Belgians in boots



Dedonder stresses that rebuilding Belgium’s defence starts with the actual personnel. For the first time since 1993, when conscription ended, Belgium’s armed forces will be expanded, from its current 25,000 to 29,000 by 2030 (by comparison, conscripts aside, the force counted 45,000 career soldiers in 1993).


Belgian soldiers boarding a transporter plane



The budget will grow from today’s €4.7 billion to €6.9 billion in 2030 and more than €10.4 billion in 2035 – when Belgium will reach the NATO two percent target. Even so, this needs to be done in a way to be sure Belgium’s defence has “time to evolve and grow to be able to use this money in a good and responsible way.”

Several plans are now in place, including building two new military bases and cancelling planned closures of other bases while keeping them decentralised. “People want to work more closely to their homes and to spend more time with their friends and family,” she says. “By decentralising and continuing investment in existing facilities, we will make sure we can offer workplaces at an acceptable distance from home

It’s pretty sure that the promised increases in EU defense spending - if they happen at all - will be far too late to affect the situation in the Ukraine.

Last edited by Excargodog; 12-23-2022 at 02:08 PM.
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Old 12-23-2022, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Whether or not there is propaganda flying or not from either side(and there is from both), it’s hard to avoid the fact that this is a EUROPEAN problem. They have for a half century or better underfunded their own defense, even moreso since the fall of the USSR. With a GDP equal to that of the US, they still don’t cover a fraction of the money necessary for their defense. We already have troops in Europe and half of Africa. Maybe it’s time for the Europeans to deal with their own problems. For a change.
Good thing the French didn’t think this way or in Yorktown you would’ve seen Cornwallis riding a big white horse on Surrender Field while Washington hid in a cave.

The reality is, just like cousins, no ally is perfect. Some are cheapskates, but they provide you with access to or help with certain things.

I would disagree with your view (and President Obama’s “free rider” attitude) that the value of a friend is solely fiscal. I also think that particular point of view doesn’t recognize the value of different types of assets our allies bring to bear that are not measured in cash. I have friends who have a lot of money that would be in a bar fight with me. And, I have friends who don’t have a pot to pi$$ in that I would Western Union cash to simply because they think they need it.

Yes, it would be good for Europe to pony up more. However, that shouldn’t be a reason for us not to engage abroad on interests that contribute to our financial well being here in Merica. And it certainly is not a reason to allow a sovereign country be dominated by another country that is the antithesis of American values.
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Old 12-23-2022, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
It’s not a football game. There is no side to cheer for. The narrative is holes filled with ghastly remains. Over which the grieving will go on forever committed to avenge. 45bn earmarked for rolling a table where chips lost are modest homes of hungry, parka wrapped survivors waiting for rescue. A crippled global trade engine. The opportunity cost of chit canning proven bilateral projects. If warfare is essential support of fighting cadres along a theater sized combat zone, heeerr’s Johnny.
Meto,
I probably sometimes miss some of the subtleties of your posts. However,I do think I follow your main point(s). (I apologize in advance if I misrepresent your core beliefs in the following)

Your view of this war is that all war is evil, and the only sane approach is one of pacifism. I agree wholeheartedly that all war is a level of evil that is hard to even describe. Due to that agreement I have spent decades trying to fit a pacific world view to the world, and past history, as I understand it. I have been unable to do so. I have used the soon to follow Trotsky quote before, because it illustrates in one sentence the dilemma, as I see it, of opposing any war for the sake of opposing war.

"You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you."

This is the reality faced by Peoples, over and over again, throughout history. It is the reality faced by Ukrainie as I type this. They did not ask for this war. They did not provoke it....and they sure as hell aren't fighting it because they want to destroy Russia, or fight some kind of proxy war for "The West".
They are fighting because they have been invaded by a neighboring country that ruled them as a subjected colony for almost 350 years. A country that has in the past attempted to destroy Ukrainian language and culture. A country that has attempted to portray them as merely a little subset of the great inheritors of Muskovy. A country that has murdered their people by the millions, stolen their grain and coal, nullified their Nations Orthodox Bishops, and proxy ruled them for almost 25 years with organized crime and Russian security forces.

So. What choice do they have? War has come to them. Do they submit and return to being subjugated vassals of Russia and its crime syndicate form of government? Or do they fight?
Which choice would you make, if you lived in Lviv or Kharkiv?

83 years ago a nation invaded Poland that began a war where the ruling ideology of that nation called for the destruction of all the non-German people living from the Odra River to the Ural mountains. All to make room for a superior race of people and a superior culture. (not much difference between liebensraum and manifest destiny...except a lot more people lived in said geography than in North America).
The only reason that the invading nation failed, and the killing was limited to 10's of millions rather than 100's of millions, was they were defeated in war. People who found "war interested in them" fought back. They saved Civilization, at least for now.

Last edited by MaxQ; 12-23-2022 at 06:43 PM.
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