rickair7777

The PRC industrial base isn't exactly a shining example of socialist innovation and efficiency

TransWorld

And me thinks Russia’s is even worse.

Excargodog

Didn’t claim it was, but it is pumping out numbers..

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/1/26/analysis-shipyard-capacity-chinas-naval-buildup-worries-us-military-leaders

https://news.usni.org/2023/01/16/china-undergoing-build-up-in-every-warfare-area-says-oni-commander

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/02/22/asia/us-navy-chief-china-pla-advantages-intl-hnk-ml/index.html


this isn’t ALL just the USN trying to boost their budget.

Excargodog

almost 6000 nukes will cover for a multitude of lesser sins…

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...-need-to-know/

rickair7777

6000 nukes gets them very little other than prestige. It prevented direct western intervention in UR, that's it. But turns out UR is doing OK on their own.

Alternate reality time...
Where the nukes would come in handy is if RU had a very capable conventional force, and could roll west into Europe and seize a lot of territory. *IF* they could defeat us conventionally, RU's strategic arsenal might deter NATO from using tac nukes to stop RU armor and mech. The US might not authorize the dual key weapons due to fear of strategic escalation. But even so, at some point FR has their own weapons to say nothing of UK.

In the world we live in, the trick to having a conflict between nuclear powers is to keep it somewhat reserved, leave him off-ramps where appropriate, and don't threaten his own territorial integrity in a big way. So yes, we can expect proxy wars.

Excargodog

The problem with propagandizing someone as an insane madman is that you actually might be right. 1% of people become schizophrenic/bipolar sometime in their lives. And for all Putin is unpopular in the west, he seems to be far more popular in Russia than ANY of our politicians are here. Betting that his senior military leaders would restrain him is - in my opinion - a risky bet. YMMV.


We have no existential interests in the Ukraine, and never have. And our feckless EU allies are - for the most part- not even putting enough of their GDP into defense to make a meaningful contribution to this effort despite collectively having a GDP greater than ours and an order of magnitude greater than the Russians and those with the biggest GDPs (Germany, France, Italy) are among those most remiss in even living up to their 2% pledges.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ne_149012.html

In the meantime, the industrial might of China continues to grow.

rickair7777

Political popularity does not extend to following a madman off of a cliff... few people in any country would believe that global nuclear war and national suicide are desirable or even tolerable outcomes unless their country is already in ruins or has lost a scorched-earth mechanized campaign. Would RU have used nukes in Oct '41? Sure, I would have too in their shoes. But that's a vastly different circumstances than being bogged down in UR in 2023.

As I've said numerous times our primary (realpolitik) interest is in discouraging invasions and armed empire-building in the 21st century. And not just in Europe, in fact we're probably less concerned with Europe than the PAC.

Also we are not behaving as though we are under "existential threat"... our forces are not engaged at all. Yes some former NMF boyz *might* be there in a civilian capacity but if so I can just about assure you that they are there to coordinate, evaluate and assist, but with strict orders to *not* engage any russians. We are obviously not giving Putin any propaganda ammo along the lines of US/NATO invasions.

That was being addressed before UR. Now is not the time to throw a tantrum about NATO funding, that just emboldens Vlad. We can pick that up again after UR dust settles, and we should.

We've already benefited from an expanded NATO and stronger resolve on the continent.


We can't do much about that, but at least we've sent the message that the US, the West, and a lot of non-aligned will sit back and tolerate armed imperial adventurism. IMO the PRC is a more important recipient of that message than Vlad. Because as you say, UR really isn't that important to us either way.

TransWorld

Russia firing off 6000 nukes….

MAD = Mutually Assured Deterrence is a strong motivator for major powers (but not rogue madman).

Excargodog

But (our current allies) the Germans followed Hitler off a cliff in 1939, and (our current allies) the Italians followed Mussolini off a cliff in 1939, and (our current allies) the Japanese followed Tojo off a cliff in 1941 (sometimes quite literally to avoid the disgrace of capture). And perhaps because I was once SCI indoctrinated, I know damn well how often our intel assessments were wrong, and recall rather vividly the pictures of fearful people clinging to C-17 landing gear and being crushed to death during retraction when the intel people badly underestimated how long the Afghan government we’d spent 20 years propping up woukd survive our departure. As I said, you are entitled to your opinion, but what we have been seeing in the Ukraine is one of our own self imposed red lines for fear of nuclear escalation being crossed in much the same way as the old story about gradually boiling a frog. We are doing things today in terms of weapons deliveries that we believed to be an unacceptable risk a year ago. Does the fact we were wrong then justify us going further now? Or is there a limit?

Yet the resources being used now are gone - not available now for use in the PAC, and must ultimately be replaced.

No propaganda ammo? We are the main provider of weapons that are killing Russian conscripts. That’s propaganda enough in a society like Russia and it apparently resonates with the PRC as well. Not to mention the moral issue of the West being willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

. That’s a statement more worthy of Hubcapped than you, Rick. The deficiencies of major EU/NATO countries funding their own defense were indeed pointed out by the Carter administration, the Reagan administration, the Bush administration, the Obama administration, the Trump administration, and the Biden administration BEFORE this ever occurred. The EU identified it themselves after they were embarrassed by genocide on their own doorstep in the former Yugoslavia. But talk was cheap - they still didn’t put money behind it. Indeed, they still don’t. This is from a week ago:

https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf...rity-strategy/



No, we have not. We have more countries - even former neutral countries like Austria - wanting to shelter under the NATO umbrella, but I’m still not seeing serious increases in defense funding among the three biggest economies in the EU. Nor is NATO.

This promise has been reneged on for a damn long time:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm

an excerpt:

​​​​​​​Sure we can. We can tell these people if they don’t meet their commitments they are on their own. They’ve been underfunding their OWN defenses since the 1990s. Enough is enough. And the money we have wasted funding the defense of people who can (but won’t) fund their own defense can’t be used to offset things like the Chinese Belt and Roads initiative:

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chi...oad-initiative

We are currently losing the ‘soft power’ initiative to China. You see it now even in Africa and South America. That’s $5 Trillion in investments to buy influence.

​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​

https://blogs.eui.eu/latin-american-...or-the-region/

https://dialogochino.net/en/infrastr...andean-region/

Hubcapped

Sure is going to be fun watching the Ukrainians kick the Russians teeth in this spring/summer.

T55s have been spotted on trains heading west to Ukraine……t-55s 😂.

Imperial expansion will not be tolerated in the modern world.

Slava Ukraine