ReluctantEskimo

The alternative is NO Ukraine.

You don't own the moral high ground, so don't even bother to virtue signal.

Sliceback

Funny that he doesn't post the ISW report talking poorly about Russia. Suddenly he's not a fan of ISW reports?

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...tember-15-2024

METO Guido

The mighty 155. Lend enough cover, fire bases, crews and ammo, we’ll do the rest. Humbling. Completely irrational but humbling. Will that work? Hold on until Spring, it may.

Excargodog

What part of this do you believe talks "poorly" about Russia. They appear to be gaining ground in some areas and losing it in others. Clearly both Russia and Ukraine have often pushed out troops to the limit of their immediate logistics capability and have needed pauses to resupply. But if you can find something in today's report you think somehow stands out, feel free to post it. I am unable to guess what you find particularly significant about todays ISW posting. Help me out.

Excargodog

who is virtue signaling? I am lamenting the destruction of a country and its most prominent demographic group. Surely you aren't in favor of the destruction they are incurring?

Excargodog

Small volumes are perhaps better than none at all, but the real standard is "enough shells to make a difference." That standard is going to require more than "small volumes."

and as even Zelensky admits, many long promised arms deliveries from NATO allies are still only promised.


And "crews" are a nontrivial issue. Look at their demographic "tree."


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...on_pyramid.svg

Notice the dearth of people in the under 30 years of age groups? If the war stopped today, the population of Ukraine would continue to fall for another couple generations, just because they have so few people coming into their child bearing years.

https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-population-will-crash-to-a-mere-15mn-people-by-2100-un-333727/

https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-07-11/ukraine-face-a-demographic-catastrophe

At this point the most limiting factor for Ukraine is manpower. That's projected to only get worse.

METO Guido

Sound familiar? Russians die for a madman promising restoration of greatness that sank under weight of its own lies 30 years ago. The Ukraine for its very identity. For the murdered hundreds of thousands buried all around them. Moscow underestimated their prey ruinously. No matter how they attempt to manipulate public perception, fat chance this will ever sell as victory.

Lowslung

The difference is you seem to want to attribute that destruction to the west. It is Russia who invaded and it is Russia that is bent on the destruction of a country. Only in today’s bizarro alternate right wing fever dream reality can aiding in the defense of a friendly, freedom seeking nation be spun as the destructive, evil force. Meanwhile that same group of nut jobs is falling all over themselves at the grandeur of Moscow’s metro stations, the affordability of its groceries, and the “effectiveness” of its leader. Unf&@king believable. Truly.

Excargodog

This outcome was predicted by a US diplomat back in the 1980s and 1990s if NATO expanded to the East. It doesn't matter if it was just or unjust - unjust cr@p happens all the time. It was PREDICTABLE and it was PREDICTED, and yet through a combination of
NATO partner fecklessness of them refusing to fund their own defenses, their growing dependency on cheap Russian gas/oil, and the urging of idiots from both parties (John McCain and Lindsay Graham come to mind) the conditions to bring about the destruction of Ukraine came to pass. It wasn't just Russian paranoia (although it indeed was that), we damn near came to war with them when the Russians tried to militarize Cuba with nukes - and it was separated from the nearest big city (Miami) by 250+ miles of ocean. Offering to make them a member of NATO was definitely poking the bear and we damn well knew it. Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe and already had severe economic and demographic problems before we chose them to be our proxies in a war with Russia. It was an avoidable unforced error. Especially considering most of the rest of NATO had been shirking their commitment to deterrence for over thirty years.

The good news is that except for a few $100s of billions (a pittance compared to 20 years in Afghanistan the US won't have to pay for this stupidity barring actual escalation to WWIII which even Biden doesn't appear senile enough to be willing to risk. The bad news is that the Ukrainians are paying the price for that stupidity and may well not survive this bit of State Department adventurism if this continues. In fact, with the demographic doom loop they are in, it may already be too late.

And yeah, you can whine that Russia has no right, no moral basis, for being so paranoid, and that's entirely true, but that's no different than trying to tell a mama bear that you just want a selfie with your kids and her cubs, you have no intention of harming them. The outcome if you try it may be unfair and quite likely tragic, but sane people avoid putting themselves or people they care for in that situation to begin with, because a bear is a bear and explaining won't change them.

Sliceback

You read that ISW assessment and can't see where they mentioned Russia's problems? That's a laughable position to take.