Ukraine conflict
09-13-2024, 05:46 PM
#3981
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sloboda_Ukraine
09-13-2024, 06:41 PM
#3982
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And Ukraine - once the third greatest nuclear armed country in the world - could have kept a few of them - perhaps just a half dozen - but they chose to accept the guarantees that Russia, US, and the UK gave that their territorial integrity would be guaranteed, just as the Russians chose to accept the guarantees from Germany that there would be no NATO expansion eastward - not even into the former East Germany.
There are lots of roads not taken and we can all fantasize what might or might not have happened if they had been taken without ever really knowing what the outcome would have actually been. But here we are and the issue is where we go from here. All wars eventually end and while each side would prefer the unconditional surrender of their opponent, I don't see that happening here - nor will wishful thinking make it happen. So it comes down to what are the realistic expectations for either side.
There are lots of roads not taken and we can all fantasize what might or might not have happened if they had been taken without ever really knowing what the outcome would have actually been. But here we are and the issue is where we go from here. All wars eventually end and while each side would prefer the unconditional surrender of their opponent, I don't see that happening here - nor will wishful thinking make it happen. So it comes down to what are the realistic expectations for either side.
09-13-2024, 06:55 PM
#3983
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1epe546p5vo
2 hours ago
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Abdujalil Abdurasulov
BBC News, Kyiv
Some excerpts:
Ukrainians warn of being surrounded as Russia advances in east
2 hours ago
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Abdujalil Abdurasulov
BBC News, Kyiv
The situation is critical, a Ukrainian military officer in the east told the BBC near the front line south of Pokrovsk.
Russia’s military strategy now appears to be surrounding the city, which is a key transportation hub in the region.
The officer, who preferred to stay anonymous, said his military leadership want to hold their positions at all costs, often leading to the loss of troops and resources.
That approach, he says, was resulting in a number of “cauldrons”, large territories surrounded by the Russian forces.
One of them is south of Pokrovsk - between Nevelske, Hirnyk and Krasnohorivka.
“We are not planning to advance towards the city of Donetsk any time soon, so why are we holding positions near Nevelske when we’re losing Hirnyk?” said the officer.
Far better to retreat to Hirnyk, he believes, with a minimum loss of resources and hold those positions.
“When your enemy has more people and resources than you do, this strategy is reckless,” the Ukrainian officer added.
“Look at the Donetsk region, it looks like a squid. [To defend all the] tentacles, you need a far bigger number of positions, observation posts. You need to hold back far bigger assault groups because the Russians are trying to attack from all sides."
So, instead of withdrawing and reduce the length of the line they need to defend, the officer says, brigades get wiped out fighting along the entire perimeter of the "cauldron" simply because the main criteria of success for generals is to hold positions.
Roman Pohorily, an analyst and co-founder of the Deep State map that monitors the latest frontline developments in Ukraine, says Ukrainian troops have now pulled back from the village of Nevelske to avoid an encirclement.
That means the threat of being trapped is less acute, but the military officer at the front says pulling back should have been done long before.
Lives and resources have been wasted on something that they couldn’t hold anyway, he argues.
Russia’s military strategy now appears to be surrounding the city, which is a key transportation hub in the region.
The officer, who preferred to stay anonymous, said his military leadership want to hold their positions at all costs, often leading to the loss of troops and resources.
That approach, he says, was resulting in a number of “cauldrons”, large territories surrounded by the Russian forces.
One of them is south of Pokrovsk - between Nevelske, Hirnyk and Krasnohorivka.
“We are not planning to advance towards the city of Donetsk any time soon, so why are we holding positions near Nevelske when we’re losing Hirnyk?” said the officer.
Far better to retreat to Hirnyk, he believes, with a minimum loss of resources and hold those positions.
“When your enemy has more people and resources than you do, this strategy is reckless,” the Ukrainian officer added.
“Look at the Donetsk region, it looks like a squid. [To defend all the] tentacles, you need a far bigger number of positions, observation posts. You need to hold back far bigger assault groups because the Russians are trying to attack from all sides."
So, instead of withdrawing and reduce the length of the line they need to defend, the officer says, brigades get wiped out fighting along the entire perimeter of the "cauldron" simply because the main criteria of success for generals is to hold positions.
Roman Pohorily, an analyst and co-founder of the Deep State map that monitors the latest frontline developments in Ukraine, says Ukrainian troops have now pulled back from the village of Nevelske to avoid an encirclement.
That means the threat of being trapped is less acute, but the military officer at the front says pulling back should have been done long before.
Lives and resources have been wasted on something that they couldn’t hold anyway, he argues.
Russian troops are now advancing towards Kurakhove, a city 35km (21 miles) south of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces in that area confirm the fighting in their sectors has intensified lately.
This development is also reflected in the daily briefings of Ukraine’s General Staff. On Thursday they reported that there were 32 clashes in the Pokrovsk direction and 48 in the Kurakhove direction.
“They’re trying to strengthen their flanks so that they can get closer to Pokrovsk, half encircle it and then start erasing the city to the ground,” says Maj Serhiy Tsekhotsky from the 59th Brigade.
This development is also reflected in the daily briefings of Ukraine’s General Staff. On Thursday they reported that there were 32 clashes in the Pokrovsk direction and 48 in the Kurakhove direction.
“They’re trying to strengthen their flanks so that they can get closer to Pokrovsk, half encircle it and then start erasing the city to the ground,” says Maj Serhiy Tsekhotsky from the 59th Brigade.
09-14-2024, 06:48 PM
#3984
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Another voice heard from…
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato...s-stoltenberg/
I'd certainly agree that NATO COULD have done more to avert this war. NATO's mission, after all, is to DETER wars, not fight them. To begin with, the rest of NATO shouldn't have been underfunding their own defense for the last thirty years including the last ten years WHILE HE (Stoltenberg) was NATO Secretary-General. But the fact is, even after the Russians grabbed Crimea, the major economies in NATO continued to allow their defense forces and their defense industrial bases to go to h€11. Even after the Russian invasion, most of the stuff they sent Ukraine was pretty much cr@p left over from the heyday of the Cold War. The USAF monitors "hangar queens" (OK, they probably use some more politically correct term now, but they used to call them Hangar Queens) because even if an aircraft was put away in a full mission capable state, if it hadn't been flown in 30 days (the definition of hangar queen) it was almost certainly NOT fully mission capable now. Which is why even after the decision had been made to give the Ukraine the 1970s and 80s era tanks, IFVs, and aircraft that had been stored for thirty years so damn little of it was serviceable without a major rebuild. As bad as Ukraine wanted Leopard tanks, many of those they got were not remotely serviceable on arrival. Same for a lot of the other weapons and ammunition as well.
While nobody can say with certainty what was down the road not taken if yiu believe in the concept of deterrence at all you have to agree that thirty years of underfunding the defense requirement by most of NATOs biggest economies had to make NATO deterrence much less credible. And Stoltenberg shares the blame for that.
NATO could have done more to avert Ukraine war: Stoltenberg
“We could have provided military equipment to prevent the war,” outgoing NATO boss tells Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper.
SEPTEMBER 14, 2024 3:44 PM CET
BY JONES HAYDENNATO could have done more to arm Ukraine to try to prevent Russia's all-out invasion in 2022, the outgoing head of the Western defense alliance said in a German newspaper interview.
"Now we are providing military equipment for the war — back then, we could have provided military equipment to prevent the war," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper in an interview published on Saturday.
Stoltenberg pointed to the alliance’s reluctance to provide weapons that Kyiv had asked for before Russia's full-scale invasion because of fears that tensions with Moscow would escalate. After the war started, Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, received one weapons system after another from its Western allies after initial hesitation.
The NATO chief said an end to the conflict in Ukraine would be achieved only at the negotiating table. "To end this war, there will have to be again dialogue with Russia at a certain stage. But it has to be based on Ukrainian strength," he was quoted as saying.
Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister who has been head of the military alliance since 2014, will step down in October and be succeeded by former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
In the interview, Stoltenberg declined to confirm that he would take over as head of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) after leaving NATO. He said he had "many options" and would reside in Oslo. POLITICO reported on Thursday that Stoltenberg will become the new MSC chairman, citing a person familiar with the matter. POLITICO is a media partner of the MSC.
BY JONES HAYDENNATO could have done more to arm Ukraine to try to prevent Russia's all-out invasion in 2022, the outgoing head of the Western defense alliance said in a German newspaper interview.
"Now we are providing military equipment for the war — back then, we could have provided military equipment to prevent the war," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper in an interview published on Saturday.
Stoltenberg pointed to the alliance’s reluctance to provide weapons that Kyiv had asked for before Russia's full-scale invasion because of fears that tensions with Moscow would escalate. After the war started, Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, received one weapons system after another from its Western allies after initial hesitation.
The NATO chief said an end to the conflict in Ukraine would be achieved only at the negotiating table. "To end this war, there will have to be again dialogue with Russia at a certain stage. But it has to be based on Ukrainian strength," he was quoted as saying.
Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister who has been head of the military alliance since 2014, will step down in October and be succeeded by former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
In the interview, Stoltenberg declined to confirm that he would take over as head of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) after leaving NATO. He said he had "many options" and would reside in Oslo. POLITICO reported on Thursday that Stoltenberg will become the new MSC chairman, citing a person familiar with the matter. POLITICO is a media partner of the MSC.
While nobody can say with certainty what was down the road not taken if yiu believe in the concept of deterrence at all you have to agree that thirty years of underfunding the defense requirement by most of NATOs biggest economies had to make NATO deterrence much less credible. And Stoltenberg shares the blame for that.
09-15-2024, 05:23 AM
#3985
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,107
Sanctions - like tracers - work both ways…
Any voluntary market transaction occurs because BOTH sides believe themselves to be benefitting from the transaction.
From Deutsche Welle:
"That was a terroristic act," Scholz said, adding that his government had called on security authorities and public prosecutors to continue investigatiosn into the incident.
"We want to bring those who did this, if we can get a hold of them, to court in Germany," he said, adding that there would be no "leniency" in this case.
The Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany were blown up in autumn of 2022.
In August, Germany issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian suspect that had been living in Poland in connection with the case. The suspect has not been arrested.
Scholz stressed that Russia had already stopped gas deliveries through the pipeline before the attack. He said that replacing Russian gas with other sources had cost Germany substantially more than €100 billion ($110.8 billion).
sdi/rm (dpa, Reuters)
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-schol...ine/a-70219078
https://think.ing.com/snaps/german-gdp-growth-q2-24/
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/a-structural-crisis-german-growth-forecast-downgraded-to-zero-percent/
From Deutsche Welle:
Scholz wants perpetrators of Nord Stream sabotage 'in court'
At the same event in Prenzlau, Scholz said that Berlin seeks to prosecute the perpretrators of an attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines."That was a terroristic act," Scholz said, adding that his government had called on security authorities and public prosecutors to continue investigatiosn into the incident.
"We want to bring those who did this, if we can get a hold of them, to court in Germany," he said, adding that there would be no "leniency" in this case.
The Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany were blown up in autumn of 2022.
In August, Germany issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian suspect that had been living in Poland in connection with the case. The suspect has not been arrested.
Scholz stressed that Russia had already stopped gas deliveries through the pipeline before the attack. He said that replacing Russian gas with other sources had cost Germany substantially more than €100 billion ($110.8 billion).
sdi/rm (dpa, Reuters)
https://think.ing.com/snaps/german-gdp-growth-q2-24/
https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/a-structural-crisis-german-growth-forecast-downgraded-to-zero-percent/
09-15-2024, 01:05 PM
#3987
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09-15-2024, 06:29 PM
#3989
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09-15-2024, 08:35 PM
#3990
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The problem from a moral standpoint is that this is destroying Ukraine. It wasn't one of the more prosperous countries in Europe to begin with a gdp per capita ranking below that of - well, damn near everyone else in Europe:
https://statisticstimes.com/economy/european-countries-by-gdp-per-capita.
php
Now their cities have been bombed, their hydroelectric and energy distribution infrastructure has been destroyed, and their people have been killed and mutilated. Their countryside is littered with mines and other unexploded ordnance and their 6 and a half million refugees in the EU and Canada are having their kids grow up in safer environments and with every day that passes, fewer will be returning to Ukraine after this is over because literally, how do you keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paris - or even Warsaw. Ukraine has had a long population decline since 1990 and they are damn near in a demographic doom loop from sustained low fertility rate - among the lowest in Europe, even before Crimea or this war.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/612074/fertility-rates-in-european-countries/
https://www.intellinews.com/datacrunch-demographic-disaster-in-russia-but-a-catastrophe-in-ukraine-215659/
But yeah, if I didn't give a damn about the Ukrainian people, I'd say we got a lot of bang for our buck out of supporting Ukraine. Strategically I think we have solidified a new axis of evil against us though, as well as driving much of the "global south" into the arms of the Chinese and Russians. No telling at this point just how good or bad that might play out.
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