Ukraine conflict
08-17-2024, 03:39 PM
#3761
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,903
Its fun to watch people not answer questions when they know it hurts their narrative. Clown world
the economic impact will most likely outstrip any money invested in ukraine by such a margin as to make it a slam dunk. You say that RU objective is to dominate europe, but dont have the courage to admit the implications of a statement i bet you wish you never made
Talk about obfuscation lol, thanks for the chuckle during todays sit. Easy peezy endorphins watching you wiggle around like a beached fish
the economic impact will most likely outstrip any money invested in ukraine by such a margin as to make it a slam dunk. You say that RU objective is to dominate europe, but dont have the courage to admit the implications of a statement i bet you wish you never made
Talk about obfuscation lol, thanks for the chuckle during todays sit. Easy peezy endorphins watching you wiggle around like a beached fish
“I like you too Dottie. I LLLIKE you.”
08-18-2024, 07:48 AM
#3762
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 805
The Kursk invasion is -IMHO - looking more and more like a PR stunt to increase flagging Ukrainian morale.
As I indicated some time back, the strategic value of the Kursk invasionn is fairly small.
And Zelensky is already saying Ukraine has no long term plans to occupy Russia:
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-update.../live-69932154
and if the idea was to pull Russian troops out of the Eastern Ukraine battle lines, it certainly doesn't appear to be making a measurable difference - or at least a very positive one.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...6f20080ab133e7
One can wonder if the whole thing isn't a strategic negative for Ukraine. Yes, it raises morale of the Ukrainians, for awhile anyway, much like the Doolittle raid on Japan in WWII, but except for bragging rights, even the Doolittle raid was strategically unimportant.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature...rican-spirits/
Right now it appears that Ukraine has ~5000 of their better armed and more experienced troops holding down an area with little strategic importance THAT THEY INTEND TO GIVE BACK while the Russians are slowly but surely closing in on Pokrovsk which is sort of a logistic key to Ukraine being able to hold on to their strongpoints in the Donetsk. One might wonder if the Ukrainian troops in Kursk might be better used 540 miles south - defending an important town.
As I indicated some time back, the strategic value of the Kursk invasionn is fairly small.
And Zelensky is already saying Ukraine has no long term plans to occupy Russia:
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-update.../live-69932154
and if the idea was to pull Russian troops out of the Eastern Ukraine battle lines, it certainly doesn't appear to be making a measurable difference - or at least a very positive one.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...6f20080ab133e7
One can wonder if the whole thing isn't a strategic negative for Ukraine. Yes, it raises morale of the Ukrainians, for awhile anyway, much like the Doolittle raid on Japan in WWII, but except for bragging rights, even the Doolittle raid was strategically unimportant.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature...rican-spirits/
Right now it appears that Ukraine has ~5000 of their better armed and more experienced troops holding down an area with little strategic importance THAT THEY INTEND TO GIVE BACK while the Russians are slowly but surely closing in on Pokrovsk which is sort of a logistic key to Ukraine being able to hold on to their strongpoints in the Donetsk. One might wonder if the Ukrainian troops in Kursk might be better used 540 miles south - defending an important town.
Any statements by Ukraine Govt/officials may or may not be true. They may be meant to inform, they may be meant to deceive.
None of us have any priviliged information regarding what communications have occurred between Russia/Ukraine.
What we do know:
Ukraine spent a period of time marshalling forces and equipt/munitions for this attack. While this was going on they still managed to essentially keep Russian offensive operations at a stalemate.
All appearances are that Ukraine managed to make all these preperations right on their shared border while keeping Russia unaware. (which would mean even the Russian crime organizations were unware, or more significantly, chose not to inform Russian FSB types)
During the Soviet years people in the USSR, and the subjugated single Party rule countrys, became adept at reading between the lines to gain an understanding of reality. With Putin's ever increasing authoritarianism and control of the media, I suspect today is no different. After 2 and a half years of "every thing is going according to plan", Ukrainian troops on Russian soil tells the Russian public that it just ain't so. It demonstrates a Ukrainian capability that official Russian TV says they do not have. Just as Tet in 1968 demonstrated to the world that the Viet Cong had more capability and resilience than official USA statements claimed, so too does Kursk.
For those who expect some immediate results it is good to remember that the gestation period for the consequenses of the Tet offensive was measured in years.
Another comparison would be the battle between Napolean's army and the Russian's at Borodino. It didn't stop Napolean from occupying Moscow, but it inflicted a fatal wound on Napolean's army.
This time, perhaps, Putin is Napolean. Or Westmoreland/Johnson/Nixon.
Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.
08-18-2024, 10:32 AM
#3763
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
None of us have priviliged insight into Ukraine's objectives/thinking regarding Kursk.
Any statements by Ukraine Govt/officials may or may not be true. They may be meant to inform, they may be meant to deceive.
None of us have any priviliged information regarding what communications have occurred between Russia/Ukraine.
What we do know:
Ukraine spent a period of time marshalling forces and equipt/munitions for this attack. While this was going on they still managed to essentially keep Russian offensive operations at a stalemate.
All appearances are that Ukraine managed to make all these preperations right on their shared border while keeping Russia unaware. (which would mean even the Russian crime organizations were unware, or more significantly, chose not to inform Russian FSB types)
During the Soviet years people in the USSR, and the subjugated single Party rule countrys, became adept at reading between the lines to gain an understanding of reality. With Putin's ever increasing authoritarianism and control of the media, I suspect today is no different. After 2 and a half years of "every thing is going according to plan", Ukrainian troops on Russian soil tells the Russian public that it just ain't so. It demonstrates a Ukrainian capability that official Russian TV says they do not have. Just as Tet in 1968 demonstrated to the world that the Viet Cong had more capability and resilience than official USA statements claimed, so too does Kursk.
For those who expect some immediate results it is good to remember that the gestation period for the consequenses of the Tet offensive was measured in years.
Another comparison would be the battle between Napolean's army and the Russian's at Borodino. It didn't stop Napolean from occupying Moscow, but it inflicted a fatal wound on Napolean's army.
This time, perhaps, Putin is Napolean. Or Westmoreland/Johnson/Nixon.
Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.
Any statements by Ukraine Govt/officials may or may not be true. They may be meant to inform, they may be meant to deceive.
None of us have any priviliged information regarding what communications have occurred between Russia/Ukraine.
What we do know:
Ukraine spent a period of time marshalling forces and equipt/munitions for this attack. While this was going on they still managed to essentially keep Russian offensive operations at a stalemate.
All appearances are that Ukraine managed to make all these preperations right on their shared border while keeping Russia unaware. (which would mean even the Russian crime organizations were unware, or more significantly, chose not to inform Russian FSB types)
During the Soviet years people in the USSR, and the subjugated single Party rule countrys, became adept at reading between the lines to gain an understanding of reality. With Putin's ever increasing authoritarianism and control of the media, I suspect today is no different. After 2 and a half years of "every thing is going according to plan", Ukrainian troops on Russian soil tells the Russian public that it just ain't so. It demonstrates a Ukrainian capability that official Russian TV says they do not have. Just as Tet in 1968 demonstrated to the world that the Viet Cong had more capability and resilience than official USA statements claimed, so too does Kursk.
For those who expect some immediate results it is good to remember that the gestation period for the consequenses of the Tet offensive was measured in years.
Another comparison would be the battle between Napolean's army and the Russian's at Borodino. It didn't stop Napolean from occupying Moscow, but it inflicted a fatal wound on Napolean's army.
This time, perhaps, Putin is Napolean. Or Westmoreland/Johnson/Nixon.
Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.
While it's fun to cheer on the good guys, it's good to keep stuff in perspective. The Ukrainians have seized the initiative in the Kursk invasion and that has certainly been ,,a morale booster for Ukraine. But before the shouts of "Onward to Moscow" get too loud, a little look at the basic math is in order.
Ukraine has seized the town of Sudzha. The town of Sudzha is the largest in the area they have captured and has a few pipelines and railroad lines. . Its population before many fled was only 5000 though. The 28 villages captured are even smaller.
currently Ukraine appears to be holding about 1000 square kilometers of Russian (land area 16,377,000 square kilometers) territory. That's 0.0006%. Currently Russia is occupying about 20% of Ukraine.
Russia (population ~144 million) has evacuated 200k people. That's 0.14 percent of their population. Ukraine (population 38 million) has about 6 million refugees in EU and other countries and another roughly 4 million internally displaced. That's over 25%.
So yeah, good news and a morale boost, but keeping it in perspective, the basics are little changed.
Ukraine has seized the town of Sudzha. The town of Sudzha is the largest in the area they have captured and has a few pipelines and railroad lines. . Its population before many fled was only 5000 though. The 28 villages captured are even smaller.
currently Ukraine appears to be holding about 1000 square kilometers of Russian (land area 16,377,000 square kilometers) territory. That's 0.0006%. Currently Russia is occupying about 20% of Ukraine.
Russia (population ~144 million) has evacuated 200k people. That's 0.14 percent of their population. Ukraine (population 38 million) has about 6 million refugees in EU and other countries and another roughly 4 million internally displaced. That's over 25%.
So yeah, good news and a morale boost, but keeping it in perspective, the basics are little changed.
A number of western military think tanks are following this war quite closely and most can't seem to figure out any strategic advantage here. Even the gas pipeline station that was captured only regulated gas that was flowing to Europe through the Ukraine anyway - gas that could have been interdicted in dozens of places within Ukraine anyway - which they still haven't even shut down.
Personally, I imagine the Russians might very well be happy to have the Ukraine's best troops tied down in Kursk indefinitely. And as they say in GOT, "winter is coming".
08-18-2024, 02:16 PM
#3765
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
08-18-2024, 02:17 PM
#3766
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,903
Dottie: I wanna know if you'll go someplace, with me.
Pee-wee: Like where?
Dottie: The Russian front.
Pee-wee: Look, Dottie, I like you. Like! I like you!
Dottie: That's the thing. I’m insecure and demand others think just like me.
Pee-wee: There's a lotta things about me you don't know anything about, Dottie. Things you wouldn't understand. Things you couldn't understand. Things you shouldn't understand.
Dottie: I don't understand.
Pee-wee: You don't wanna get mixed up with a guy like me. I'm a loner, Dottie. A rebel who speaks no Russian. So where’s my Schwinn?
Pee-wee: Like where?
Dottie: The Russian front.
Pee-wee: Look, Dottie, I like you. Like! I like you!
Dottie: That's the thing. I’m insecure and demand others think just like me.
Pee-wee: There's a lotta things about me you don't know anything about, Dottie. Things you wouldn't understand. Things you couldn't understand. Things you shouldn't understand.
Dottie: I don't understand.
Pee-wee: You don't wanna get mixed up with a guy like me. I'm a loner, Dottie. A rebel who speaks no Russian. So where’s my Schwinn?
08-18-2024, 03:12 PM
#3767
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 342
Dottie: I wanna know if you'll go someplace, with me.
Pee-wee: Like where?
Dottie: The Russian front.
Pee-wee: Look, Dottie, I like you. Like! I like you!
Dottie: That's the thing. I’m insecure and demand others think just like me.
Pee-wee: There's a lotta things about me you don't know anything about, Dottie. Things you wouldn't understand. Things you couldn't understand. Things you shouldn't understand.
Dottie: I don't understand.
Pee-wee: You don't wanna get mixed up with a guy like me. I'm a loner, Dottie. A rebel who speaks no Russian. So where’s my Schwinn?
Pee-wee: Like where?
Dottie: The Russian front.
Pee-wee: Look, Dottie, I like you. Like! I like you!
Dottie: That's the thing. I’m insecure and demand others think just like me.
Pee-wee: There's a lotta things about me you don't know anything about, Dottie. Things you wouldn't understand. Things you couldn't understand. Things you shouldn't understand.
Dottie: I don't understand.
Pee-wee: You don't wanna get mixed up with a guy like me. I'm a loner, Dottie. A rebel who speaks no Russian. So where’s my Schwinn?
08-18-2024, 06:08 PM
#3769
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Another voice heard from…
https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...rategic-error/
excerpts:
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a huge strategic error
BY ANDREW LATHAM, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 08/18/24 12:00 PM ET
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proven himself a master of the political stage, a gifted orator capable of stirring emotions and garnering global support. However, his recent military incursion into Russia marks a departure from the realm of diplomacy and into the territory of strategic blunder.
This reckless gambit, more akin to a desperate stunt worthy of a second-rate actor than a seasoned statesman, diverts critical resources from the primary battlefield while offering negligible strategic gain.
This reckless gambit, more akin to a desperate stunt worthy of a second-rate actor than a seasoned statesman, diverts critical resources from the primary battlefield while offering negligible strategic gain.
Ukraine faces a critical juncture. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but it is clear that the focus must remain on the liberation of occupied territories. To squander precious resources on a symbolic gesture is a luxury the country cannot afford. It is time to return to the core mission and to avoid distractions that threaten to undermine the ultimate goal.
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