Ukraine conflict
08-17-2024, 07:52 AM
#3751
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
Meanwhile, the EUs biggest economy backs out.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-halt-new-ukraine-military-aid-report-war-russia/
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...crunch-report/
Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report
The ban, which is already in place, will affect all new requests for assistance to Kyiv, Germany’s FAZ newspaper reported.
AUGUST 17, 2024 1:03 PM CET
BY GIOVANNA COIThe German government will stop new military aid to Ukraine as part of the ruling coalition's plan to reduce spending, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Saturday.
The moratorium on new assistance is already in effect and will affect new requests for funding, not previously approved aid, according to the FAZ report, which cited non-public documents and emails as well as discussions with people familiar with the matter.
In a letter sent to the German defense ministry on Aug. 5, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that future funding would no longer come from Germany's federal budget but from proceeds from frozen Russian assets, according to the German newspaper.
BY GIOVANNA COIThe German government will stop new military aid to Ukraine as part of the ruling coalition's plan to reduce spending, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Saturday.
The moratorium on new assistance is already in effect and will affect new requests for funding, not previously approved aid, according to the FAZ report, which cited non-public documents and emails as well as discussions with people familiar with the matter.
In a letter sent to the German defense ministry on Aug. 5, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that future funding would no longer come from Germany's federal budget but from proceeds from frozen Russian assets, according to the German newspaper.
Germany and other G7 countries in June struck a preliminary deal to use the value of some $300 billion of Russia’s sovereign assets immobilized in Western financial institutions to secure a $50 billion loan to Ukraine. But governments have yet to agree on the details of the scheme, and technical talks might drag on for months.
Berlin, which is Europe's main supplier of military aid to Kyiv, had already signaled a change in course on Ukraine last month, when the governing coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals adopted a preliminary deal on a draft budget for 2025. The compromise seen by POLITICO detailed plans to slash future assistance to Ukraine by half to €4 billion to fulfill other spending priorities.
Speaking after the Cabinet approved the draft budget in mid-July, Lindner said Ukraine would have to rely more on funds from "European sources" as well as the frozen Russian assets. But it's still unclear if, and when, that money will flow.
Contentions over Ukraine aid reportedly deepened the rifts in the ruling coalition in Berlin, already tattered by weeks of internal fightsover a series of issues from the budget to welfare. Green leader and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said this week he plans to run for chancellor as the Greens’ candidate in the 2025 federal election, casting doubt on the survival of the governing alliance of which he is a member.
“It’s quite obvious that this coalition has major problems finding common ground,” Habeck said regarding the recent disputes. “The ideas are falling apart.”
Berlin, which is Europe's main supplier of military aid to Kyiv, had already signaled a change in course on Ukraine last month, when the governing coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals adopted a preliminary deal on a draft budget for 2025. The compromise seen by POLITICO detailed plans to slash future assistance to Ukraine by half to €4 billion to fulfill other spending priorities.
Speaking after the Cabinet approved the draft budget in mid-July, Lindner said Ukraine would have to rely more on funds from "European sources" as well as the frozen Russian assets. But it's still unclear if, and when, that money will flow.
Contentions over Ukraine aid reportedly deepened the rifts in the ruling coalition in Berlin, already tattered by weeks of internal fightsover a series of issues from the budget to welfare. Green leader and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said this week he plans to run for chancellor as the Greens’ candidate in the 2025 federal election, casting doubt on the survival of the governing alliance of which he is a member.
“It’s quite obvious that this coalition has major problems finding common ground,” Habeck said regarding the recent disputes. “The ideas are falling apart.”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/202...crunch-report/
With Germany representing Ukraine’s largest single financier in Europe, the cessation of further aid payments could represent a significant hurdle for Kyiv to continue the war against the much larger and richer Russia.
Although the payment freeze is technically for future budgets, the effects of the cutoff are already having an impact on present-day aid transfers, with money for an IRIS-T air defence system offered by German manufacturer Diehl Defence recently being denied by the federal government.
This is because the €8 billion allocated for this year has already been spent, and the € 4 billion slated for 2025 has reportedly been surpassed. According to the report, while Ukraine will receive supplies previously agreed upon, “hardly any” new orders from Germany will be possible until 2028.
Although the payment freeze is technically for future budgets, the effects of the cutoff are already having an impact on present-day aid transfers, with money for an IRIS-T air defence system offered by German manufacturer Diehl Defence recently being denied by the federal government.
This is because the €8 billion allocated for this year has already been spent, and the € 4 billion slated for 2025 has reportedly been surpassed. According to the report, while Ukraine will receive supplies previously agreed upon, “hardly any” new orders from Germany will be possible until 2028.
Last edited by Excargodog; 08-17-2024 at 08:21 AM.
08-17-2024, 10:04 AM
#3752
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Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,437
08-17-2024, 10:35 AM
#3753
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Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,829
Weren’t you off somewhere on a 3 day weenie? Under generally accepted rules of order, all recognized parties are given opportunity to cross examine opposition thinking. Yet to date, you’ve flat refused to answer one direct question after another. Effect on US trade hinges largely on PRC. Amy clue where they stand? War zones, terrible for business with exception of arms traffick.
08-17-2024, 10:50 AM
#3754
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,437
Weren’t you off somewhere on a 3 day weenie? Under generally accepted rules of order, all recognized parties are given opportunity to cross examine opposition thinking. Yet to date, you’ve flat refused to answer one direct question after another. Effect on US trade hinges largely on PRC. Amy clue where they stand? War zones, terrible for business with exception of arms traffick.
So i answered, whats yours?
what is the economic fallout for the United States if the EU suffers through RU “domination” (again, your words) over the next 20 years?
08-17-2024, 01:07 PM
#3756
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Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,829
In 2023, Mexico was the top trading partner of the United States based on import value. In that year, U.S. imports from Mexico totaled to 475.6 billion U.S. dollars. China and Canada rounded out the top three as these countries continue to enjoy a close trading relationship under the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Germany and Japan were also high on the list, both providing the U.S. with over 140 billion dollars worth of imports in 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...or-us-imports/
United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Combined, U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for nearly one-third of all U.S. merchandise exports in 2021. China continued to be the leading supplier of U.S. imports and was the third-largest destination for U.S exports. Mexico and Canada were the second- and third-largest suppliers of U.S. imports.
The nation’s largest goods import trading partners were China ($536.8 billion), Mexico ($454.9 billion), and Canada ($437.7 billion), making up more than one-third of America’s imported goods. Japan ($148.3 billion) and Germany ($146.6 billion) rounded out the top five.
08-17-2024, 01:13 PM
#3757
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
The Kursk invasion
The Kursk invasion is -IMHO - looking more and more like a PR stunt to increase flagging Ukrainian morale.
As I indicated some time back, the strategic value of the Kursk invasionn is fairly small.
And Zelensky is already saying Ukraine has no long term plans to occupy Russia:
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-update.../live-69932154
and if the idea was to pull Russian troops out of the Eastern Ukraine battle lines, it certainly doesn't appear to be making a measurable difference - or at least a very positive one.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...6f20080ab133e7
One can wonder if the whole thing isn't a strategic negative for Ukraine. Yes, it raises morale of the Ukrainians, for awhile anyway, much like the Doolittle raid on Japan in WWII, but except for bragging rights, even the Doolittle raid was strategically unimportant.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature...rican-spirits/
Right now it appears that Ukraine has ~5000 of their better armed and more experienced troops holding down an area with little strategic importance THAT THEY INTEND TO GIVE BACK while the Russians are slowly but surely closing in on Pokrovsk which is sort of a logistic key to Ukraine being able to hold on to their strongpoints in the Donetsk. One might wonder if the Ukrainian troops in Kursk might be better used 540 miles south - defending an important town.
As I indicated some time back, the strategic value of the Kursk invasionn is fairly small.
While it's fun to cheer on the good guys, it's good to keep stuff in perspective. The Ukrainians have seized the initiative in the Kursk invasion and that has certainly been a morale booster for Ukraine. But before the shouts of "Onward to Moscow" get too loud, a little look at the basic math is in order.
Ukraine has seized the town of Sudzha. The town of Sudzha is the largest in the area they have captured and has a few pipelines and railroad lines. . Its population before many fled was only 5000 though. The 28 villages captured are even smaller.
currently Ukraine appears to be holding about 1000 square kilometers of Russian (land area 16,377,000 square kilometers) territory. That's 0.0006%. Currently Russia is occupying about 20% of Ukraine.
Russia (population ~144 million) has evacuated 200k people. That's 0.14 percent of their population. Ukraine (population 38 million) has about 6 million refugees in EU and other countries and another roughly 4 million internally displaced. That's over 25%.
So yeah, good news and a morale boost, but keeping it in perspective, the basics are little changed.
Ukraine has seized the town of Sudzha. The town of Sudzha is the largest in the area they have captured and has a few pipelines and railroad lines. . Its population before many fled was only 5000 though. The 28 villages captured are even smaller.
currently Ukraine appears to be holding about 1000 square kilometers of Russian (land area 16,377,000 square kilometers) territory. That's 0.0006%. Currently Russia is occupying about 20% of Ukraine.
Russia (population ~144 million) has evacuated 200k people. That's 0.14 percent of their population. Ukraine (population 38 million) has about 6 million refugees in EU and other countries and another roughly 4 million internally displaced. That's over 25%.
So yeah, good news and a morale boost, but keeping it in perspective, the basics are little changed.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-update.../live-69932154
and if the idea was to pull Russian troops out of the Eastern Ukraine battle lines, it certainly doesn't appear to be making a measurable difference - or at least a very positive one.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...6f20080ab133e7
One can wonder if the whole thing isn't a strategic negative for Ukraine. Yes, it raises morale of the Ukrainians, for awhile anyway, much like the Doolittle raid on Japan in WWII, but except for bragging rights, even the Doolittle raid was strategically unimportant.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature...rican-spirits/
Right now it appears that Ukraine has ~5000 of their better armed and more experienced troops holding down an area with little strategic importance THAT THEY INTEND TO GIVE BACK while the Russians are slowly but surely closing in on Pokrovsk which is sort of a logistic key to Ukraine being able to hold on to their strongpoints in the Donetsk. One might wonder if the Ukrainian troops in Kursk might be better used 540 miles south - defending an important town.
08-17-2024, 02:02 PM
#3758
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,437
Whatever ju say Señor Hub..
In 2023, Mexico was the top trading partner of the United States based on import value. In that year, U.S. imports from Mexico totaled to 475.6 billion U.S. dollars. China and Canada rounded out the top three as these countries continue to enjoy a close trading relationship under the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Germany and Japan were also high on the list, both providing the U.S. with over 140 billion dollars worth of imports in 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...or-us-imports/
United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Combined, U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for nearly one-third of all U.S. merchandise exports in 2021. China continued to be the leading supplier of U.S. imports and was the third-largest destination for U.S exports. Mexico and Canada were the second- and third-largest suppliers of U.S. imports.
The nation’s largest goods import trading partners were China ($536.8 billion), Mexico ($454.9 billion), and Canada ($437.7 billion), making up more than one-third of America’s imported goods. Japan ($148.3 billion) and Germany ($146.6 billion) rounded out the top five.
In 2023, Mexico was the top trading partner of the United States based on import value. In that year, U.S. imports from Mexico totaled to 475.6 billion U.S. dollars. China and Canada rounded out the top three as these countries continue to enjoy a close trading relationship under the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Germany and Japan were also high on the list, both providing the U.S. with over 140 billion dollars worth of imports in 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...or-us-imports/
United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Combined, U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for nearly one-third of all U.S. merchandise exports in 2021. China continued to be the leading supplier of U.S. imports and was the third-largest destination for U.S exports. Mexico and Canada were the second- and third-largest suppliers of U.S. imports.
The nation’s largest goods import trading partners were China ($536.8 billion), Mexico ($454.9 billion), and Canada ($437.7 billion), making up more than one-third of America’s imported goods. Japan ($148.3 billion) and Germany ($146.6 billion) rounded out the top five.
what was the 2022 trade number with the EU ?(which is what i stated)
thanks for not having the courage to answer the question……again
so for the third time,
what would the economic impact be to the US if russia continues to dominate(your words) the EU over the next 20 years?
this is fun!
08-17-2024, 02:13 PM
#3759
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Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,829
If you recall, I labeled it a secondary objective of the special op. Things have changed a little since 1st salvos 3 years ago.Trade stats can be made to support almost anything. Mexico, Canada, PRC are perineal chart toppers. So what? Speaking of which, any FanDuel moneyline on the Dnipro reactor’s yet?
08-17-2024, 02:25 PM
#3760
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Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,437
If you recall, I labeled it a secondary objective of the special op. Things have changed a little since 1st salvos 3 years ago.Trade stats can be made to support almost anything. Mexico, Canada, PRC are perineal chart toppers. So what? Speaking of which, any FanDuel moneyline on the Dnipro reactor’s yet?
the economic impact will most likely outstrip any money invested in ukraine by such a margin as to make it a slam dunk. You say that RU objective is to dominate europe, but dont have the courage to admit the implications of a statement i bet you wish you never made
Talk about obfuscation lol, thanks for the chuckle during todays sit. Easy peezy endorphins watching you wiggle around like a beached fish
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