Ukraine conflict
08-02-2024, 05:07 PM
#3581
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,096
Yeah, I know the Ukrainians lie too. And Russia certainly has the ability to wage war right now, my previous articles have pointed at next year for when the wheels could well come off. I think 6.9% inflation in Russia is rather understated. I don't think the Russian Central Bank would be raising its benchmark to 18% for a mere 6.9% inflation rate. Since this next article is behind a paywall I'll just paste some excerpts.
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/put...ts_pos2&page=1
"Last year, the Russian central bank more than doubled interest rates to tame prices. Inflation, though, kept rising, hitting over 9% this month, with a vast range of goods and services becoming costlier, from potatoes (up 91% so far this year) to economy-class flights (up 35%).
The central bank lifted its benchmark rate another 2 percentage points on Friday to 18%, making it one of the few central banks in the world to raise rates this year.
Inflation has become a hard-to-shake feature of Russia’s war economy. Even as price rises have moderated across much of the developed world, Russia’s struggles with price stability are getting worse.
A surge in military spending by the government and a record labor shortage, as working-age men go to the front or flee, have fueled wages and pushed up prices. Fresh rounds of U.S. sanctions, meanwhile, have complicated international payments, further driving up costs for importers.
Prices aren’t rising fast enough to cause an economic crisis or social unrest. But they are a sign of the growing imbalances under the hood of the economy. Stubborn inflation also means that prosecuting the war becomes costlier, which then leads to even larger military spending.
“In the inflation fight, Russian authorities have no good options—they can’t stop the war, they can’t solve the labor problem, they can’t stop raising wages for the population,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central-bank official who is now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “As long as the war goes on, inflation will remain high.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/put...ts_pos2&page=1
"Last year, the Russian central bank more than doubled interest rates to tame prices. Inflation, though, kept rising, hitting over 9% this month, with a vast range of goods and services becoming costlier, from potatoes (up 91% so far this year) to economy-class flights (up 35%).
The central bank lifted its benchmark rate another 2 percentage points on Friday to 18%, making it one of the few central banks in the world to raise rates this year.
Inflation has become a hard-to-shake feature of Russia’s war economy. Even as price rises have moderated across much of the developed world, Russia’s struggles with price stability are getting worse.
A surge in military spending by the government and a record labor shortage, as working-age men go to the front or flee, have fueled wages and pushed up prices. Fresh rounds of U.S. sanctions, meanwhile, have complicated international payments, further driving up costs for importers.
Prices aren’t rising fast enough to cause an economic crisis or social unrest. But they are a sign of the growing imbalances under the hood of the economy. Stubborn inflation also means that prosecuting the war becomes costlier, which then leads to even larger military spending.
“In the inflation fight, Russian authorities have no good options—they can’t stop the war, they can’t solve the labor problem, they can’t stop raising wages for the population,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central-bank official who is now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “As long as the war goes on, inflation will remain high.”
High inflation is scarcely limited to Russia. It has long been endemic in Ukraine, even before the war.
https://i.postimg.cc/gjDJLC9K/IMG-7346.jpghttps://postimg.cc/GT4rZSmB]https://i.postimg.cc/gjDJLC9K/IMG-7346.jpg
ukraine is trying to renegotiating their huge debts while going increasingly into debt to support the war: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/will-ukraine-default-its-
debts
Much of the support they are getting is in the form of loans - not grants. The longer this goes on, the deeper in debt they are getting as well. And bonds issued when interest rates were low are having to be converted to bonds with interest rates four times as high.
S&P Downgrades Ukraine Credit Rating To 'Selective Default'
August 2, 2024
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Text sizeThe US ratings agency S&P cut Ukraine's credit rating to "selective default" on Friday, citing the war-torn country's failure to make a coupon payment on an existing bond.
"The rating actions reflect the missed payment on the coupon of Ukraine's 2026 Eurobond," S&P said in a statement explaining its decision to downgrade Ukraine's credit rating to "SD/SD" from "CC/C."
"We do not expect the payment within the bond's contractual grace period of 10 business days," it continued, adding that this view was based on "the passage of a Ukrainian law in mid-July that authorizes the government to temporarily suspend payments" on some debt liabilities.
S&P's decision follows the July 24 decision by Fitch -- another top US ratings agency -- to downgrade Ukraine's credit rating to "C" from "CC," leaving it just one notch above default.
Fitch said in a statement that its decision was based in part on its view that an agreement Ukraine struck with some Eurobond holders "marks the start of a default-like process."
Ukraine's economy has been battered by the ongoing Russian invasion, which is now well into its third year.
The International Monetary Fund recently downgraded Ukraine's economic outlook, citing a series of "devastating" Russian attacks against its energy infrastructure, while approving a $2.2 billion payout to support the country's budget under an existing loan agreement
But clearly, both countries are paying a price to execute this war. But Russia started with a much bigger economy and a lot more resources. Size matters. Population matters.
08-02-2024, 05:53 PM
#3582
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 767
Since it's behind a paywall I'll just post some excerpts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/w...ultPosition=56
"Oleksii Yukov spends many of his nights dodging drones, navigating minefields and hoping not to be targeted by Russian artillery as he races to collect the remains of fallen soldiers from the battlefield.
In just three shattered tree lines around the ruined village of Klishchiivka outside Bakhmut, where Ukrainian and Russian forces have fought seesaw battles for well over a year, he collected 300 bodies. They were almost all Russian, he said, left behind in a maelstrom of violence where the struggle to stay alive often outweighs concern for the dead."
"He said he had recovered bodies stacked four or five deep in trenches. Men who died wearing summer uniforms are buried under men in winter gear."
"Many Ukrainian soldiers have also died in the bloody battles that play out every day, but Mr. Yukov said most of the bodies he collects are Russians left behind.
“We deal with the realities of war, not a war on paper,” he said. “I’m saying specifically what I see: for every five or six bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, we find almost 80 Russian bodies.”
08-02-2024, 07:44 PM
#3583
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,819
Accurate casualty stats are classified. Published estimates are guesswork subject to bias from undisclosed sources and entirely unverifiable. If using body count as an indicator of enemy resolve to hold occupied ground, it’s a forecast tool been proven wrong more than once. Dig in for another winter on the eastern front.
08-02-2024, 08:34 PM
#3584
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,096
Accurate casualty stats are classified. Published estimates are guesswork subject to bias from undisclosed sources and entirely unverifiable. If using body count as an indicator of enemy resolve to hold occupied ground, it’s a forecast tool been proven wrong more than once. Dig in for another winter on the eastern front.
https://historyhereandnowhhn.com/202...nting-corpses/
But population is only one of the metrics of demographics, the age distribution within that demographic is also important. Three decades of running the lowest fertility count in Europe and one of the lowest male life expectancies at birth have taken their toll on the population of Ukraine. Trench warfare is not a job at which old men excel, and relative to even Russia, Ukraine has an age distribution that provides few young and healthy men.
https://www.worldometers.info/demogr...-demographics/
For all the impressive statistical figures and metrics that MACV produced, numbers did not tell the entire story of the Vietnam War. Military historian Lewis Sorley condemned the application of body counts and claimed that practice alone undermined any prospect of securing South Vietnam’s independence:
“Body count may have been the most corrupt – and corrupting – measure of progress in the whole mess. Certainly the consensus of senior Army leaders, the generals who commanded in Vietnam, strongly indicates that it was.“
-Lewis Sorley, ‘A Better War‘, pg. 21
-Lewis Sorley, ‘A Better War‘, pg. 21
08-02-2024, 09:15 PM
#3585
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,096
From Today’s Guardian…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...-gains-in-east
Ukraine war briefing: Waves of Russian bombings and infantry assaults drive major gains in east
Russian military intensifies pressure on key Ukrainian transport hub of Pokrovsk; Kyiv receives bodies of 250 slain soldiers in exchange with Moscow. What we know on day 892- Russian assaults are raising pressure on the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, Ukraine says, as waves of guided bombs and infantry lead to some of Moscow’s largest territorial gains since the spring. The push is fuelling a surge in civilians fleeing, with requests for evacuation in the area increasing about tenfold over the past two weeks, according to a volunteer helping people leave. Russia’s gains of about 57 sq km (22 sq miles) in the space of a week are the third-largest recorded since April after they made only modest gains in June, Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, told Reuters.
- Russian forces are using warplanes and artillery fire to support waves of infantry assaults in the area near Pokrovsk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s National Guard said in televised remarks. “These assaults are not always supported by armoured vehicles, often it is infantry assaults,” Ruslan Muzychuk said on Friday, flagging the bombing by Russian warplanes as a particular problem. “It’s a significant threat … because the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts are taking a large share of the daily aviation strikes carried out on the positions of Ukrainian defenders.” Russian forces have been steadily inching forward on several fronts in the eastern Donetsk region, staging particularly fierce attacks near Pokrovsk, with Kyiv’s troops stretched thin.
- Russia’s defence minister said its forces had captured five settlements in the Donetsk region in the past week. Russia’s use of warplanes to fire guided bombs was crucial for Moscow’s battlefield tactics, said Valeriy Romanenko, a Kyiv-based aviation expert, who compared it to a “conveyor belt”. “The Russians are not piercing our defence, they are pushing it back. They are advancing 100, 150, 200 metres every day using this tactic: dropping guided bombs, then a ‘meat assault’, [and if those are] repelled, dropping guided bombs again, a ‘meat assault’ again.” He said the supply of US F-16 fighters to Ukraine could disrupt that dynamic if the jets were able to threaten Russian warplanes, but that such operations were unlikely for now given the risk it would present for the new pilots operating expensive jets.
- Ukraine’s central bank has predicted emigration levels this year will be far higher than previously forecast, largely due to power cuts caused by Russian attacks on energy facilities. “The worsening of the energy situation and slow normalisation of the economic conditions will lead to a larger outflow of migrants abroad in 2024 and 2025 than previously expected,” the National Bank of Ukraine said in a report. It predicted there would be a net outflow of 400,000 people this year, while next year’s outflow would be 300,000. The bank predicted a net return of 400,000 people in 2026 but said the process would be “gradual”.
- The US rating agency S&P cut Ukraine’s credit rating to “selective default” on Friday, citing the country’s failure to make a coupon payment on an existing bond. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a law allowing Ukraine to suspend foreign debt payments until 1 October, paving the way for a moratorium to be called that would formally mark a sovereign default.
08-02-2024, 09:49 PM
#3586
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 767
Looks like the Russians are now running short of ethnic minority recruits from the Far East and outside of Russia. Ethnic Russians who have been able to avoid service so far are going to the meat grinder next. You don't hear much about the Ukrainians throwing wave after wave of troops into suicidal assaults, and the new conscription law is starting to replenish their ranks along the front lines.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europ...hnk/index.html
"Authorities in the city of Moscow are offering a record signing-on bonus for new recruits to fight in Ukraine, in the latest sign of a scramble to boost Russian troop numbers."
"Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin introduced the one-time signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles (about $22,000) for city residents who join the military, according to a statement on Tuesday."
"While Russia’s casualty numbers remain shrouded in secrecy, estimates say the death toll among troops is high. More than 70,000 soldiers were likely killed or wounded in May and June alone, the UK defense ministry said in an update on July 12, as the Russian army faced high losses on a new front in the Kharkiv region.
It is estimated that Russia has lost 87% of the active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN in December last year.
Social media is filled with video footage taken by drones of Russian troops being killed or left with life-changing injuries in what soldiers grimly call “meat grinder” battles against Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian soldiers have often spoken of how their outnumbered forced face so-called human wave assaults from an enemy whose commanders appear happy to tolerate brutal attrition rates.
As personnel deaths mount, the Kremlin is looking all over the place to find fighters to send to the front."
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europ...hnk/index.html
"Authorities in the city of Moscow are offering a record signing-on bonus for new recruits to fight in Ukraine, in the latest sign of a scramble to boost Russian troop numbers."
"Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin introduced the one-time signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles (about $22,000) for city residents who join the military, according to a statement on Tuesday."
"While Russia’s casualty numbers remain shrouded in secrecy, estimates say the death toll among troops is high. More than 70,000 soldiers were likely killed or wounded in May and June alone, the UK defense ministry said in an update on July 12, as the Russian army faced high losses on a new front in the Kharkiv region.
It is estimated that Russia has lost 87% of the active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN in December last year.
Social media is filled with video footage taken by drones of Russian troops being killed or left with life-changing injuries in what soldiers grimly call “meat grinder” battles against Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian soldiers have often spoken of how their outnumbered forced face so-called human wave assaults from an enemy whose commanders appear happy to tolerate brutal attrition rates.
As personnel deaths mount, the Kremlin is looking all over the place to find fighters to send to the front."
08-03-2024, 04:53 AM
#3587
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,466
Looks like the Russians are now running short of ethnic minority recruits from the Far East and outside of Russia. Ethnic Russians who have been able to avoid service so far are going to the meat grinder next. You don't hear much about the Ukrainians throwing wave after wave of troops into suicidal assaults, and the new conscription law is starting to replenish their ranks along the front lines.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europ...hnk/index.html
<snip>
"While Russia’s casualty numbers remain shrouded in secrecy, estimates say the death toll among troops is high. More than 70,000 soldiers were likely killed or wounded in May and June alone, the UK defense ministry said in an update on July 12, as the Russian army faced high losses on a new front in the Kharkiv region.
It is estimated that Russia has lost 87% of the active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN in December last year.
Social media is filled with video footage taken by drones of Russian troops being killed or left with life-changing injuries in what soldiers grimly call “meat grinder” battles against Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian soldiers have often spoken of how their outnumbered forced face so-called human wave assaults from an enemy whose commanders appear happy to tolerate brutal attrition rates.
As personnel deaths mount, the Kremlin is looking all over the place to find fighters to send to the front."
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europ...hnk/index.html
<snip>
"While Russia’s casualty numbers remain shrouded in secrecy, estimates say the death toll among troops is high. More than 70,000 soldiers were likely killed or wounded in May and June alone, the UK defense ministry said in an update on July 12, as the Russian army faced high losses on a new front in the Kharkiv region.
It is estimated that Russia has lost 87% of the active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN in December last year.
Social media is filled with video footage taken by drones of Russian troops being killed or left with life-changing injuries in what soldiers grimly call “meat grinder” battles against Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian soldiers have often spoken of how their outnumbered forced face so-called human wave assaults from an enemy whose commanders appear happy to tolerate brutal attrition rates.
As personnel deaths mount, the Kremlin is looking all over the place to find fighters to send to the front."
How come Kremlin Kargo never found it??
08-03-2024, 07:15 AM
#3589
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,096
Looks like the Russians are now running short of ethnic minority recruits from the Far East and outside of Russia. Ethnic Russians who have been able to avoid service so far are going to the meat grinder next. You don't hear much about the Ukrainians throwing wave after wave of troops into suicidal assaults, and the new conscription law is starting to replenish their ranks along the front lines.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europ...hnk/index.html
"Authorities in the city of Moscow are offering a record signing-on bonus for new recruits to fight in Ukraine, in the latest sign of a scramble to boost Russian troop numbers."
"Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin introduced the one-time signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles (about $22,000) for city residents who join the military, according to a statement on Tuesday."
As personnel deaths mount, the Kremlin is looking all over the place to find fighters to send to the front."
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europ...hnk/index.html
"Authorities in the city of Moscow are offering a record signing-on bonus for new recruits to fight in Ukraine, in the latest sign of a scramble to boost Russian troop numbers."
"Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin introduced the one-time signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles (about $22,000) for city residents who join the military, according to a statement on Tuesday."
As personnel deaths mount, the Kremlin is looking all over the place to find fighters to send to the front."
You are aware, I trust, that the US military also gives one time recruitment bonuses? In peacetime? $15k just for being able to ship out to boot camp promptly? Up to $50k or so for the Army? 20k just to join the reserves.
https://www.goarmy.com/benefits/while-you-serve/bonuses
And retention bonuses?
https://myarmybenefits.us.army.mil/B...nuses?serv=122
and only the Marines seem to be reliably meeting their recruitment goals.
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/04/army-pace-hit-recruiting-goal-year-wormuth-says/395777/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20Army%20fell,last%20y ear's%20goal%20of%2065%2C000.
In peacetime?
https://i.postimg.cc/1zbdDgDF/IMG-7348.jpghttps://postimg.cc/nsYTJhRV]https://i.postimg.cc/1zbdDgDF/IMG-7348.jpg
Yet you find it significant that the Russians are paying $22k bonuses for guys to volunteer for a serious war? Seriously? Especially when US E-1 pay and benefits are significantly greater than those of Russian soldiers?
Why?
08-03-2024, 08:09 AM
#3590
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 767
One thing you and I probably agree on is that the Ukrainians will probably never be able to mount another truly successful offensive. Here's the rub, remind me of what happened in Russia after WWI and Afghanistan - collapse/revolution/et al. When Putin leaves the scene you can bet on it as prominent Russians wind up dead in the power struggle. Hopefully it will happen sooner than that. In the meantime the Ukrainians need to hunker down and inflict as many casualties as possible.
By the way, since I jumped in here you really haven't posted anything I haven't been previously aware of. I devour current events. If you really want to influence my opinion you've got to post something that is truly news to me. Most of the stuff I've posted is stuff I don't think the general public is very aware of, such as how quickly the Russians are depleting their stocks of artillery tubes. I've got more of the same on deck in response to you. Some people worry about Russia invading a NATO country next, I don't. Russia is finished as a "great" nation and will never truly recover from this.
Speaking of stuff the general public is not aware of, do you know that the Ukrainians have shot down two A-50 Mainstay aircraft? That leaves approximately eight increasingly decrepit aircraft in service, and they cannot replace any of them in the next decade or two.
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