SOLOTVYNSKA, Ukraine -- The barbed wire fence stretches along the bank of the river that marks Ukraine’s western border. Across the water, lie Romania and the European Union.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, there was no fence here at this stretch of the Tisza River. But in the two and a half years since then, Ukraine has tightened security — not to keep Russians out, but Ukrainian men in.

Since 2022, Ukraine has barred most military-age men from leaving the country. As a result, the number seeking to cross the border illegally has soared, according to Ukraine’s border service. Aided by smugglers, some buy counterfeit paperwork to try to pass by official crossings. But others try a more desperate route, trying to sneak out on foot, taking their chances swimming across the river. Fast-flowing and cold, it is dangerous — at least two dozen men have died trying to make the crossing since 2022, according to the border service.

The flow of men and the reinforced security at the border reflect two hard truths Ukraine faces: its military is short on soldiers and it is struggling to find volunteers willing to fight.

Two and a half years of devastating fighting has severely depleted Ukraine’s forces, leaving them in some places heavily outnumbered by Russian troops. The shortage of troops means units are often unable to rotate off the frontline, leaving them exhausted. The issue is one of the key reasons why in recent weeks Russia has been creeping forward in the Donbas region.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:30pm ET on August 1. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the August 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian forces continue to make slow, steady advances in the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka), largely enabled by Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain in the area immediately northwest of Avdiivka. Russian advances will likely slow further as Russian forces advance into a line of larger and more urban settlements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky identified the Pokrovsk direction as the Russian military's current priority on August 1 and noted that Russian forces are currently able to advance in certain areas of the front because Ukraine is still struggling with manpower shortages and challenges in properly staffing and equipping new brigades.[1] Zelensky observed that some Ukrainian brigades are unable to conduct rotations because their replacement brigades are not yet staffed or equipped, which creates exploitable weaknesses that Russian forces can attack.[2] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that Ukrainian defenders in the Pokrovsk direction have inferior equipment and defensive means and are therefore currently unable to slow Russian advances.[3] Delays in the provision of Western and especially US military assistance have contributed to delays in equipping newly-raised Ukrainian units and re-equipping those that have been fighting.[4]

Russian forces appear to be exploiting such weakness to make gradual tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka, where ISW recently assessed that Russian forces are attempting to achieve a limited tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces east of the T0511 (O0544) Ocheretyne-Hrodivka-Myrnohrad highway, particularly on the left bank of the Vovcha River.[5] Geolocated footage published on August 1 shows that Russian forces have advanced further within Vesele towards the T0511 road, placing the current furthest confirmed Russian advance about 3.5 kilometers from the outskirts of Hrodivka.[6] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are attacking south of Vesele along the railway line and windbreaks towards Serhiivka and Zhelanne (just south of Vesele), which could further efforts to tactically encircle Ukrainian forces in this area if Russian forces properly exploit it.[7] Ukrainian and Russian sources also reported that Russian forces seized Tymofiivka (north of the O0544 road and the Vesele area).[8] Mashovets characterized recent Russian advances in the area southeast of the O0544 road as a tactical penetration of Ukrainian lines and stated that Russian forces have advanced 6.5 kilometers deep and 7.5 kilometers wide from Sokil to Serhiivka, crossing both the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers (running through Prohres-Vovche and Lozuvatske, respectively) in recent weeks.[9] Mashovets warned that Russian forces are close to achieving an operationally significant breakthrough in the Pokrovsk direction by the end of August.