Average life expectancy for men in Ukraine has dropped from 66.4 years pre-war to 57.3 in 2023, according to the IDSS; for women, it fell from 76.4 to 70.9 years. This is not only because of the tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians killed or wounded, but also “a worsening with the invasion of the mental and physical state of Ukrainians,” the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) stated in a July report, which warned that for Ukraine, “the prospect is of a demographic catastrophe” because of “the negative tendency for future generations to procreate, in addition to economic uncertainty.” Tvedorstup noted that Ukraine faces “a big drop in the birth rate” because of the “long-term impact” of the migration of women during the war: “The more infrastructure is destroyed during the war, the more likely it is that refugees will remain permanently abroad, which would be disastrous for reconstruction.”

With an average of 1.2 births per woman, Ukraine was already one of the countries with the lowest fertility rate in Europe before the Russian invasion, according to a 2023 report by the Joint Research Center (JRC), an agency of the European Commission: “The very low fertility rate is explained by the prevalence of families having only one child after independence, a result of economic uncertainty, poor expectations, lack of social services and family policies, and conservative gender norms.” The birth rate has fallen dramatically since the invasion, according to the IDSS: in 2022 it was 0.9 children per woman and this year the institute expects it to fall to 0.7. The average in the European Union, according to European Commission statistics, is 1.5.

The demographic imbalance by gender is also slowing the birth rate in Ukraine: if in 2022 there were 86 men for every 100 women in Ukraine, in 2023, according to the IDSS, there are 110 men for every 100 women. The EU average is 100 men for every 104 women. In a study published last summer by the Wilson Center in the United States, Libanova warned that after the war, if the Ukrainian economy does not recover quickly, the exodus will be greater: “Ukrainian families that are now divided, with men in Ukraine and women and children abroad, may choose to reunify abroad, not inside the country. This means Ukraine may lose an additional 1–1.5 million young, educated men.”

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BERLIN, July 17 (Reuters) - Germany will halve military aid for Ukraine next year, even with the possibility that Republican candidate Donald Trump could return to the White House and curb support for Kyiv.
German aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion) in 2025 from around 8 billion euros in 2024, according to a draft of the 2025 budget seen by Reuters.
Germany hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50 billion in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets agreed by the Group of Seven, and that funds earmarked for armaments will not be fully used.

Trump sparked fierce criticism from Western officials for suggesting he would not protect countries that failed to meet the transatlantic military alliance's defence spending targets and would even encourage Russia to attack them.
Germany has faced criticism for repeatedly missing a NATO target of spending 2% of its economic output on defence.

DEPLETED MILITARY STOCKS

The stocks of Germany's armed forces, already run down by decades of underinvestment, have been further depleted by arms supplies to Kyiv.

So far, Berlin has donated three Patriot air defence units to Kyiv, more than any other country, bringing down the number of Patriot systems in Germany to nine.
Germany's fractious coalition of left-leaning Social Democrats, pro-business liberals and ecologist Greens has struggled to comply with NATO's spending target due to self-imposed rules that limit the amount of state borrowing they can take on.


Although military aid to Ukraine will be cut, Germany will comply with the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defence in 2025, with a total of 75.3 billion euros.
Days after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a "Zeitenwende" – German for historic turning point - with a 100 billion euro special fund to bring the military up to speed.
From this special fund, there will be 22.0 billion euros more for defence, plus 53.3 billion euros in the regular budget, still less than that sought by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.
The budget for 2025 comes with the mid-term financial planning until 2028, the year when the armed forces' special fund to meet NATO's minimum spending goals is due to run out and 80 billion will be needed for defence, as noted in the financial plan.
In 2028, there is a gap of 39 billion euros in the regular budget, of which 28 billion euros are needed to comply with the NATO target without the special fund, sources from the finance ministry said.
Decisions on how the hole will be plugged are not likely to be taken until after the 2025 election.
"The 80 billion euros that have been put on display for 2028 simply do not exist," said Ingo Gaedechens, member of the parliament's budget committee from the conservative opposition party CDU.
"The coalition is not even trying to cover this up but are openly admitting it."