Ukraine conflict
07-09-2024, 02:58 PM
#3472
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
Another voice heard from…
I don't necessarily agree with it, but it makes more sense than sunk cost fallacies...
https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...n-for-ukraine/
Some excerpts:
.........
My own personal opinion is that the only ways Russia would ever get back the Crimea and the lost territory in the Russian occupied oblasts are:
a. NATO boots on the ground
or
b. Tactical nukes
with all the risks inherent in either option. Right now this has ceased to be a stalemate. Ukraine is losing, albeit losing slowly, but barring option a or b, I see scant chance they will regain much if any of their lost territory and a likelihood they will lose more the longer this continues.
https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...n-for-ukraine/
NATO needs a realistic plan for ending the Ukraine war
BY MICHAEL O’HANLON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 07/09/24 9:30 AM ETSome excerpts:
As NATO leaders and other key officials gather in Washington this week to commemorate the alliance’s 75th anniversary, they must avoid talk of celebration. The world is in turmoil, and they must focus hard on explaining to their various agitated and unsure constituents what their strategy really is for the Ukraine war.
At present, the war is basically stuck, but there is more momentum on the Russian side in terms of battlefield territory, political developments in relevant key countries and long-term demographic and economic factors. Under these circumstances, it makes little sense to keep repeating the tired mantra that we will help Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” That is not a strategy.
At present, the war is basically stuck, but there is more momentum on the Russian side in terms of battlefield territory, political developments in relevant key countries and long-term demographic and economic factors. Under these circumstances, it makes little sense to keep repeating the tired mantra that we will help Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” That is not a strategy.
We may someday have to hold our noses and acknowledge that much of what Russia now controls in eastern and southern Ukraine is not going to be won back on the battlefield. But Ukraine deserves another try at a serious counteroffensive. To be sure, the odds are against it. I have estimated elsewhere that Ukraine would need to build a crack maneuver force of some 200,000 more troops to have a good chance at success, and there are few signs that its military is building such a capability. But I still think Ukrainians deserve one more chance; it is, after all, their land.
My own personal opinion is that the only ways Russia would ever get back the Crimea and the lost territory in the Russian occupied oblasts are:
a. NATO boots on the ground
or
b. Tactical nukes
with all the risks inherent in either option. Right now this has ceased to be a stalemate. Ukraine is losing, albeit losing slowly, but barring option a or b, I see scant chance they will regain much if any of their lost territory and a likelihood they will lose more the longer this continues.
07-09-2024, 03:02 PM
#3473
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 698
Russia will continue to escalate by committing atrocities and ignoring the rules of war.
With every violation the restrictions on ROE lessen. Time will tell if this latest missile strike on civilian targets will be a watershed moment or not.
With every violation the restrictions on ROE lessen. Time will tell if this latest missile strike on civilian targets will be a watershed moment or not.
07-09-2024, 03:47 PM
#3474
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 788
I don't necessarily agree with it, but it makes more sense than sunk cost fallacies...
https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...n-for-ukraine/
Some excerpts:
.........
My own personal opinion is that the only ways Russia would ever get back the Crimea and the lost territory in the Russian occupied oblasts are:
a. NATO boots on the ground
or
b. Tactical nukes
with all the risks inherent in either option. Right now this has ceased to be a stalemate. Ukraine is losing, albeit losing slowly, but barring option a or b, I see scant chance they will regain much if any of their lost territory and a likelihood they will lose more the longer this continues.
https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...n-for-ukraine/
NATO needs a realistic plan for ending the Ukraine war
BY MICHAEL O’HANLON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 07/09/24 9:30 AM ETSome excerpts:
.........
My own personal opinion is that the only ways Russia would ever get back the Crimea and the lost territory in the Russian occupied oblasts are:
a. NATO boots on the ground
or
b. Tactical nukes
with all the risks inherent in either option. Right now this has ceased to be a stalemate. Ukraine is losing, albeit losing slowly, but barring option a or b, I see scant chance they will regain much if any of their lost territory and a likelihood they will lose more the longer this continues.
You seem fixated on Ukraine getting all it's territory back as the only scenario that Ukraine would accept for it to be a Ukrainian "victory".
That is probably not the case.
Yes, I know, you will say that is Ukraine's stated position.(all territory recovered)
Of course it is. What else can be publicly said? It HAS to be their position, until it isn't.
You (and most others) have zero clue as to what would be acceptable to Ukraine.
Any scenario that does not have Ukraine under Russian rule (directly or indirectly) is a loss for Russia, and possibly more importantly, for Putin.
They will have denied the Russian professional criminal organization the natural wealth of Ukraine.
They will have denied Putin his vision of resurrecting the Russian Empire.
And Sevestapol? The jewel of Krimea....who knows. Also, Black Sea access is controlled by Turkey. Will they enter into what happens in this war?
How about Chechnia? Will they rise again?
How about China? Will they take their pound of Russian flesh? (Russia sure as hell is in no position to contest them)
How would Russia control, long term, any territory they claim? Occupied people are not always conquered people. (ask any post WW2 G.I.)
(and please, don't tell me that X% are Russian speakers....that doesn't make them sympathetic to being subjects of Russia. Until the last 4 or 5 years everyone over 40(except me) at our Thanks Giving table spoke, to varying proficiency, the Russian language. I will assure you none had any kind feelings toward that imperium. Speaking language X or Y doesn't signify political sympathies for people who speak multiple languages)
In short, what you go on and on about as to what is possible, and what is a victory or defeat, has a wide net of possiblities.
07-09-2024, 03:52 PM
#3475
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 788
The information war has a direct effect as to what happens on the ground.
Many people have directly aided Putin's war in this area.
I wish they would go sell shoes instead.
07-09-2024, 03:55 PM
#3476
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 788
Those weren't watershed moments. I don't have much hope that a few missile strikes will awaken the world's conscience.
07-09-2024, 05:27 PM
#3477
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,593
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...al-2024-07-09/
Russia lacks the munitions and troops to start a major offensive in Ukraine and would need to secure significant ammunition supplies from other countries beyond what it already has in order to do so, a senior NATO official said on Tuesday.
On the battlefield, the official said Russia has been suffering "very high" losses as it struggles to exploit small territorial gains and lacks the troops and ammunition to mount a large-scale offensive.
07-09-2024, 07:15 PM
#3478
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
https://youtu.be/XX3qQFJPq2M?si=Bk-
obUfJvOa99wQZ
But trying to cut off honest debate and discussion by claiming it's helping the enemy is worse than sophistry, it's unAmerican.
07-09-2024, 07:44 PM
#3479
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 698
Not a fan of the first amendment I take it? That was part of the constitution I swore an oath to repeatedly, at commissioning and every subsequent promotion. Both sides engage in propaganda. In WWII we did too:
https://youtu.be/XX3qQFJPq2M?si=Bk-
obUfJvOa99wQZ
But trying to cut off honest debate and discussion by claiming it's helping the enemy is worse than sophistry, it's unAmerican.
https://youtu.be/XX3qQFJPq2M?si=Bk-
obUfJvOa99wQZ
But trying to cut off honest debate and discussion by claiming it's helping the enemy is worse than sophistry, it's unAmerican.
You're losing so bad today you've really got to pull out all of the stops.
1st amendment is about government reprisal. Ain't nothing in there about telling Russian propagandists to S T F U.
And even then, there are limits. Case in point, "Axis Sally"
An American living in Germany who disseminated German propaganda over the radio to Allied Forces. I suppose there wasn't Twitter back then.
She got 10-30 years for gems like these:
“A defeat for Germany would mean a defeat for America,” Gillars said in one of her broadcasts. “I say damn Roosevelt and Churchill, and all of their Jews who have made this war possible. I, as an American girl, will stay over here on this side of the fence because it’s the right side. Girls, watch out! Don’t forget the beautiful things we have at home which are now in danger.”
Last edited by ReluctantEskimo; 07-09-2024 at 08:01 PM.
07-09-2024, 08:31 PM
#3480
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,437
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