Ukraine conflict
06-23-2024, 02:39 PM
#3371
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,482
MaxQ for the victory. Putin "I had to kill the others to protect Russia from them." Putin's wacking people left and right to keep everyone in line. How long would he survive today in a true democracy? Yeah, let's pretend nut job's version of attacking Ukraine to get the Nazi's is the real reason. Or maybe it's NATO intent to attack Russia. It's a cesspool so who'd want it? They need to sell their resources to survive. The West can buy everything they need without having to get a yard of Russia territory.
06-23-2024, 02:50 PM
#3372
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,482
Now we have to be scared because Russia exploded the largest atomic bomb 63 years ago. How have we not been living in fear every day of the week since then is beyond me.
What's it say about how poorly Russia is managed, and lead, if they're buying old ammunition from NK?
Maybe *WE* should surrender so that we don't have to worry about Russia sharing with our enemies? I mean their flag has the same colors so it would be a natural fit. :-/
What's it say about how poorly Russia is managed, and lead, if they're buying old ammunition from NK?
Maybe *WE* should surrender so that we don't have to worry about Russia sharing with our enemies? I mean their flag has the same colors so it would be a natural fit. :-/
06-23-2024, 04:09 PM
#3373
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
Some Scholars at Brookings do not buy into the story of NATO frightening Russia.
Farage hasn't a clue regarding Russia.
Just a couple of items, which are essential to Russia's disinformation/manipulation that has gone on since at least WW2.
You mention 28 million Russians killed. That is a ridiculously false number that is routinely used for the type of argument you make.
The numbers usually used to make your point are the number of Soviet dead. (and it varies widely, depending on sources). In WW1 it would have been Russian empire dead.
I will speak to WW2 as I have more familiarity.
The vast number of Soviet dead were not Russian. They were Belarussian, Ukrainian, the Baltic peoples, Poles, Jews....and so on. The Republics, and people of those Republics, are who suffered the greatest casualties, and they where ALWAYS seperate from Russia. Soviet rhetoric preached equality, but at the same time spoke of Russia as "The First Among Equals".
Russia suffered. Russians had huge losses. But they were not anywhere near the majority number of killed. (the only two truly high number of Russian dead were in Leningrad and also the 1941 German drive on Moscow). But the story of Russians bearing the brunt of suffering and death is a crock.
Though it probably predates it, as early as 1943 all mention out of USSR was regarding Russia. All suffering and heroism was Russian. It was as though the imperial, ruling Russians has appropriated all the suffering of it's subjects to itself. That is a major reason that the Holocaust....of which a significant amount occurred on Soviet territory,...was scarecly acknowledged in official Soviet histories until at LEAST the 1970's. Large numbers of Jews enduring an unspeakable tragedy simply didn't fit the official narrative.
The only part of the Soviet war effort where Russians died in somewhat comparitive numbers to their fellow Soviet citizens was in the Red Army. But the bulk of the killing was of civilians, and that was outside Russian territory.
This appropriation of the suffering of their VERY OWN subjugated people has enraged the minority nations for decades, and was just one more indignity inflicted by Russian rule.
It eased under Gorbachev. It has been brought back with a vengence by Putin with his resurrection of the Holy Russia ethos. I have read it is a central theme of the writings of Dugin and Ilyin, and they have had great influence on Putin's world views.
A second part of this false BS of Russian suffering and paranoia is how they have been invaded so often.
What is today Russia was overrun by the Mongol's. From this arose Muscovy as a tribute collecting vassal of the Mongol's. If memory serves they still paid the Golden Horde tribute as late as 1699.
It in effect made Muscovy an aggressive, expansive imperial fiefdom.
What became the Czar of Russia, then Russia, was simply a predator imperium whom routinely invaded it's neighbors. Invasions that historical apologists like to mention (such as Poland and Sweden) were reactions to expansionist invading from the Czars.
The only unprovoked invasions I know of Russian territory was Napolean and Hitler. (and of course Hitler's invasion was made possible by Stalin's agreement to divide Poland with Hitler)
Elsewise, whether in the days of the Tsars, or more modern, Russian territorial encroachments have been in response to her own predations.
This whole Putin's Russia is reacting to NATO expansion is like the wife beater saying he had no choice....'she mouthed off to me so I had no choice but to break her jaw'.
I can't quote Lowslung, but he has it essentially correct. Russia could have chosen to participate with the rest of the world. Instead they crawled into their "Holy Rus" Orthodox view of only Russia is pure...
It didn't have to be this way. But it was Putin's choices. Not being pressured by the West.
Farage hasn't a clue regarding Russia.
Just a couple of items, which are essential to Russia's disinformation/manipulation that has gone on since at least WW2.
You mention 28 million Russians killed. That is a ridiculously false number that is routinely used for the type of argument you make.
The numbers usually used to make your point are the number of Soviet dead. (and it varies widely, depending on sources). In WW1 it would have been Russian empire dead.
I will speak to WW2 as I have more familiarity.
The vast number of Soviet dead were not Russian. They were Belarussian, Ukrainian, the Baltic peoples, Poles, Jews....and so on. The Republics, and people of those Republics, are who suffered the greatest casualties, and they where ALWAYS seperate from Russia. Soviet rhetoric preached equality, but at the same time spoke of Russia as "The First Among Equals".
Russia suffered. Russians had huge losses. But they were not anywhere near the majority number of killed. (the only two truly high number of Russian dead were in Leningrad and also the 1941 German drive on Moscow). But the story of Russians bearing the brunt of suffering and death is a crock.
Though it probably predates it, as early as 1943 all mention out of USSR was regarding Russia. All suffering and heroism was Russian. It was as though the imperial, ruling Russians has appropriated all the suffering of it's subjects to itself. That is a major reason that the Holocaust....of which a significant amount occurred on Soviet territory,...was scarecly acknowledged in official Soviet histories until at LEAST the 1970's. Large numbers of Jews enduring an unspeakable tragedy simply didn't fit the official narrative.
The only part of the Soviet war effort where Russians died in somewhat comparitive numbers to their fellow Soviet citizens was in the Red Army. But the bulk of the killing was of civilians, and that was outside Russian territory.
This appropriation of the suffering of their VERY OWN subjugated people has enraged the minority nations for decades, and was just one more indignity inflicted by Russian rule.
It eased under Gorbachev. It has been brought back with a vengence by Putin with his resurrection of the Holy Russia ethos. I have read it is a central theme of the writings of Dugin and Ilyin, and they have had great influence on Putin's world views.
A second part of this false BS of Russian suffering and paranoia is how they have been invaded so often.
What is today Russia was overrun by the Mongol's. From this arose Muscovy as a tribute collecting vassal of the Mongol's. If memory serves they still paid the Golden Horde tribute as late as 1699.
It in effect made Muscovy an aggressive, expansive imperial fiefdom.
What became the Czar of Russia, then Russia, was simply a predator imperium whom routinely invaded it's neighbors. Invasions that historical apologists like to mention (such as Poland and Sweden) were reactions to expansionist invading from the Czars.
The only unprovoked invasions I know of Russian territory was Napolean and Hitler. (and of course Hitler's invasion was made possible by Stalin's agreement to divide Poland with Hitler)
Elsewise, whether in the days of the Tsars, or more modern, Russian territorial encroachments have been in response to her own predations.
This whole Putin's Russia is reacting to NATO expansion is like the wife beater saying he had no choice....'she mouthed off to me so I had no choice but to break her jaw'.
I can't quote Lowslung, but he has it essentially correct. Russia could have chosen to participate with the rest of the world. Instead they crawled into their "Holy Rus" Orthodox view of only Russia is pure...
It didn't have to be this way. But it was Putin's choices. Not being pressured by the West.
Example:
https://history.defense.gov/Multimed.../leslie-aspin/
At a meeting in Brussels in December 1993 the NATO defense ministers agreed to consider for future alliance membership those non-NATO nations that participated in the program. Russian President Boris Yeltsin warned that attempts to bring Eastern European nations into NATO would threaten his country's strategic interests and endanger hopes for the former Soviet bloc's reconciliation with the West. Yeltsin argued that enlarging NATO would reawaken old Russian concerns about encirclement and possibly weaken the cause of democratic reform.
Now you can say you believe the Russian concerns were unwarranted - you are entitled to your opinion. But you cannot truthfully say that these concerns weren't well known or that many people didn't accurately predict that Russia woukdn't act badly to NATO expansion. You do believe they have acted badly, right. So let there be no doubt, the warnings were given for decades, the predictions of adverse outcome from ignoring those w@rnings were made, and those predictions have come true.
THAT was the issue that Farage was saying. If you want to quibble over what ethnic groups died in WWII (at a time when African Americans were in separate units in the US military as were Japanese-Americans - at least those who weren't in detainment camps) go for it. The point remains that the Soviet Union took more casualties than any other country in Europe and far more than we did just as China took far more casualties in Asia than anyone else. They - like the Chinese and both North and South Korea with regard to Japan - still hold the memories of that time in their culture. You can deny it to your hearts content or continue to use Sophistries and attempt to quibble it to death, but the reality is certainly there in the historical record.
06-23-2024, 04:22 PM
#3374
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
https://www.csis.org/analysis/burgeo...missile-threat
https://www.state.gov/dipnote-u-s-department-of-state-official-blog/nations-collaborate-to-prevent-north-korea-from-evading-un-sanctions/
https://
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10472
https://<a href="http://www.dia.mil/...orth_Korea.pdf
06-23-2024, 06:43 PM
#3375
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 174
If you don't think that the US government is concerned - and yeah, even scared - about the prospect of NK getting competent help with their ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs you are extremely ill informed.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/burgeo...missile-threat
https://www.state.gov/dipnote-u-s-department-of-state-official-blog/nations-collaborate-to-prevent-north-korea-from-evading-un-sanctions/
https://
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/
https://
www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/NKMP.pdf
https://
https://www.csis.org/analysis/burgeo...missile-threat
https://www.state.gov/dipnote-u-s-department-of-state-official-blog/nations-collaborate-to-prevent-north-korea-from-evading-un-sanctions/
https://
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/
https://
www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/NKMP.pdf
https://
You're equally uninformed if you believe there's a reasonable open source discussion to be had on the topic. From what we've seen so far, I'd argue it's equally as likely the Russians are getting technical guidance from Pyongyang as it is the other way around. While I'd guess we both agree that the average Joe on the street is shockingly unaware of the very real threat of nuclear Armageddon, the idea that a Russia/DPRK alliance somehow suddenly ups the ante is pure fearmongering. It's difficult to see how a (questionably) newly technologically invigorated North Korea slinging nukes helps either their own or Russia's cause. Both regime's ultimate goals are the maintenance of power. Hard to do that when you've been turned to glass by an inevitable counter strike.
Last edited by Lowslung; 06-23-2024 at 06:44 PM. Reason: Formatting
06-23-2024, 08:09 PM
#3376
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
You're equally uninformed if you believe there's a reasonable open source discussion to be had on the topic. From what we've seen so far, I'd argue it's equally as likely the Russians are getting technical guidance from Pyongyang as it is the other way around. While I'd guess we both agree that the average Joe on the street is shockingly unaware of the very real threat of nuclear Armageddon, the idea that a Russia/DPRK alliance somehow suddenly ups the ante is pure fearmongering. It's difficult to see how a (questionably) newly technologically invigorated North Korea slinging nukes helps either their own or Russia's cause. Both regime's ultimate goals are the maintenance of power. Hard to do that when you've been turned to glass by an inevitable counter strike.
Here is what CSIS said less than a week ago:
A Threat Like No Other: Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation
https://www.csis.org/analysis/threat...ry-cooperation
An excerpt:
The summit meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War. This relationship, deep in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia, and the U.S. homeland. Amid front-burner issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the administration relegates this problem to the back burner at its own peril.
What started out as a small arms sale by North Korea to the Wagner Group in November 2022 has recently been acknowledged by Secretary of State Antony Blinken as a “matter of deep concern” over the North’s provision of 5 million rounds of ammunition and scores of ballistic missiles. As the summit suggested, Kim is likely to fuel Russian war stocks indefinitely. Of pressing concern, however, is what Putin is giving in return. It is highly unlikely that Kim would have feted Putin so lavishly only for the promise of food and fuel. That may have been the gift when Kim visited Russia in September 2023, direly needed at the time as his country was just emerging from a three-plus year Covid lockdown. But Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines laid down a significant marker in March 2024 when she said Moscow may be dropping long-held nonproliferation norms in its dealings with North Korea.
Kim wants advanced telemetry, nuclear submarine technology, military satellite wares, and advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. Putin needs Kim’s weapons to make up for a monthly munitions shortfall of 50,000 rounds (even if Russia is producing ammunition at full capacity) in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine. A gaggle of Russian scientists were in North Korea prior to this month’s military satellite launch. Kim has also been expressing satisfaction with his nuclear submarine plans, which is a very bad sign. This aspect of the relationship not only destabilizes security on the peninsula and in Asia; it also heightens the direct threat posed by North Korea to the homeland. ICBMs with advanced countermeasure technology, overhead reconnaissance capabilities, and nuclear submarines would allow Kim to target the entirety of the United States with a nuclear force that Washington would have difficulty taking out in a preemptive first strike.
What started out as a small arms sale by North Korea to the Wagner Group in November 2022 has recently been acknowledged by Secretary of State Antony Blinken as a “matter of deep concern” over the North’s provision of 5 million rounds of ammunition and scores of ballistic missiles. As the summit suggested, Kim is likely to fuel Russian war stocks indefinitely. Of pressing concern, however, is what Putin is giving in return. It is highly unlikely that Kim would have feted Putin so lavishly only for the promise of food and fuel. That may have been the gift when Kim visited Russia in September 2023, direly needed at the time as his country was just emerging from a three-plus year Covid lockdown. But Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines laid down a significant marker in March 2024 when she said Moscow may be dropping long-held nonproliferation norms in its dealings with North Korea.
Kim wants advanced telemetry, nuclear submarine technology, military satellite wares, and advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. Putin needs Kim’s weapons to make up for a monthly munitions shortfall of 50,000 rounds (even if Russia is producing ammunition at full capacity) in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine. A gaggle of Russian scientists were in North Korea prior to this month’s military satellite launch. Kim has also been expressing satisfaction with his nuclear submarine plans, which is a very bad sign. This aspect of the relationship not only destabilizes security on the peninsula and in Asia; it also heightens the direct threat posed by North Korea to the homeland. ICBMs with advanced countermeasure technology, overhead reconnaissance capabilities, and nuclear submarines would allow Kim to target the entirety of the United States with a nuclear force that Washington would have difficulty taking out in a preemptive first strike.
06-23-2024, 09:31 PM
#3377
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 699
If you actually believe that to be the case then you must believe the State Department and DOD are doing a lot of things to try to keep nuclear and missile know how out of North Koreas hands for nothing. The four articles I posted are only four out of hundreds readily available.
Here is what CSIS said less than a week ago:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/threat...ry-cooperation
An excerpt:
But quibble away. Reality doesn't change because you want to count coup.
Here is what CSIS said less than a week ago:
A Threat Like No Other: Russia-North Korea Military Cooperation
https://www.csis.org/analysis/threat...ry-cooperation
An excerpt:
But quibble away. Reality doesn't change because you want to count coup.
Two poverty-stricken nations, isolated from the majority of the world's wealth, led by two dictators-for-life. Does it really compare to 92 nations assembling on behalf of Ukraine?
Maybe. But doubtful.
The summit did what it set out to do. Grab headlines. Maybe RU gets some artillery shells. Maybe NK gets some MIRVs. Neither are worth changing course for.
06-24-2024, 06:42 AM
#3378
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
I don't disagree that bad actors finding each other in their respective times of need is not ideal. But let's be realistic as to what sort of threat they really are.
Two poverty-stricken nations, isolated from the majority of the world's wealth, led by two dictators-for-life. Does it really compare to 92 nations assembling on behalf of Ukraine?
Maybe. But doubtful.
The summit did what it set out to do. Grab headlines. Maybe RU gets some artillery shells. Maybe NK gets some MIRVs. Neither are worth changing course for.
Two poverty-stricken nations, isolated from the majority of the world's wealth, led by two dictators-for-life. Does it really compare to 92 nations assembling on behalf of Ukraine?
Maybe. But doubtful.
The summit did what it set out to do. Grab headlines. Maybe RU gets some artillery shells. Maybe NK gets some MIRVs. Neither are worth changing course for.
Switzerland hosted Ukraine's global peace summit on June 15-16, with over 90 countries and organizations in attendance. Seventy-eight states and four organizations signed the final joint communique of the peace summit on June 16.
Some countries that participated but were notably absent from the list of signatories included India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa, Thailand, Mexico, and the United Arab Emirates. Russia and China did not attend.
On June 22, Zelensky announced that Barbados and the Marshall Islandshad signed the joint communique after the summit.
Six more participants have joined Ukraine’s peace summit communique this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 23. He did not specify the new countries or organizations that signed on.
Some countries that participated but were notably absent from the list of signatories included India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa, Thailand, Mexico, and the United Arab Emirates. Russia and China did not attend.
On June 22, Zelensky announced that Barbados and the Marshall Islandshad signed the joint communique after the summit.
Six more participants have joined Ukraine’s peace summit communique this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 23. He did not specify the new countries or organizations that signed on.
I don't really have an opinion on the North Korean hereditary leadership other than that it's so damn bizarre I wouldn't trust anyone's prediction about it - including my own. But at this point I see no reason to believe a successor or heir apparent or whatever at NK would be significantly less bat$hit crazy than the current incumbent. They've already got nukes - cumbersome ones it would be difficult for them to deliver in their primitive ICBMs - but bat$hit crazy and nukes are always a bad combination. The Russians helping them to miniaturize the former and improve the latter doesn't strike me as a good thing.
As far as Russia, I honestly don't think the problem would be solved by Putin dying - I think it's more cultural than that and cultural stuff dies hard - especially in Europe. Even here Texans 'remember the Alamo but that scarcely compares with keeping the Wehrmacht out of Stalingrad. Hell, I had a squadron mate start a bar fight in Barcelona once by casually opining that the Castilian unification of Spain was old news - dating back 500 years to Ferdinand and Isabella - and the Catalonians needed to get over it. I'm less than convinced that Putin's eventual successor will be any real improvement.
my reading of history is that no one ever really WANTED to start either WWI or WWII. They sort of blundered into it incrementally, each side slowly upping the ante assuming the other side would back off. Could that happen again? This time with nuclear powers? Who can say...
06-24-2024, 07:59 AM
#3379
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,112
And in war, $hit just happens…
....raising tempers on both sides. H€LL, even blue on blue $hit happens in war, it's unavoidable. War is always a blunt instrument, but when civilians are in the frag pattern it gets even worse. And often it's exaggerated by the side taking the hit for propaganda purposes.
We've been trying to walk a fine line between helping Ukraine and crossing a red line and becoming personally at war with a nuclear armed country. Lines get real blurry in war though.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pppr719rlo
Time to cue 'Napalm sticks to kids..."
https://youtu.be/uMUPsJzrUe4?si=j41JkBcGpjIE8ESG
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia said on Sunday that the United States was responsible for a Ukrainian attack on the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula with five U.S.-supplied missiles that killed four people, including two children, and injured 151 more.
The Russian Defence Ministry said four of the U.S.-delivered Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, equipped with cluster warheads, were shot down by air defence systems and the ammunition of a fifth had detonated in mid-air.
Footage on Russian state television showed people running from a beach and some people being carried off on sun loungers.
Russian-installed authorities in Crimea said missile fragments had fallen just after noon near a beach on the north side of the city of Sevastopol where locals were on holiday.
The incident generated a furious reaction among Russian public figures.
The Defence ministry said U.S. specialists had set the missiles' flight coordinates on the basis of information from U.S. spy satellites, meaning Washington was directly responsible.
"Responsibility for the deliberate missile attack on the civilians of Sevastopol is borne above all by Washington, which supplied these weapons to Ukraine, and by the Kyiv regime, from whose territory this strike was carried out," the ministry said.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and now views the Black Sea peninsula it as an integral part of its territory, though most of the world considers it still part of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, in what he cast as a defensive move against a hostile and aggressive West. Ukraine and the West say Russia is waging an imperial-style war.
The United States began supplying Ukraine with longer range ATACMS missiles, which have a 300-kilometre (186-mile) range, earlier this year.
Reuters was unable to immediately verify battlefield reports from either side.
TREATING THE INJURED
Russian-installed Sevastopol Governor Mihail Razvozhaev put the death toll at four, with 144 injured, including 82 taken to hospitals. Twenty-seven children were among the injured.
Specialist doctors were being flown in from other parts of Russia.
Russia will respond to Sunday's attack, the Defence Ministry said, without elaborating.
The Russian Defence Ministry said four of the U.S.-delivered Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, equipped with cluster warheads, were shot down by air defence systems and the ammunition of a fifth had detonated in mid-air.
Footage on Russian state television showed people running from a beach and some people being carried off on sun loungers.
Russian-installed authorities in Crimea said missile fragments had fallen just after noon near a beach on the north side of the city of Sevastopol where locals were on holiday.
The incident generated a furious reaction among Russian public figures.
The Defence ministry said U.S. specialists had set the missiles' flight coordinates on the basis of information from U.S. spy satellites, meaning Washington was directly responsible.
"Responsibility for the deliberate missile attack on the civilians of Sevastopol is borne above all by Washington, which supplied these weapons to Ukraine, and by the Kyiv regime, from whose territory this strike was carried out," the ministry said.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and now views the Black Sea peninsula it as an integral part of its territory, though most of the world considers it still part of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, in what he cast as a defensive move against a hostile and aggressive West. Ukraine and the West say Russia is waging an imperial-style war.
The United States began supplying Ukraine with longer range ATACMS missiles, which have a 300-kilometre (186-mile) range, earlier this year.
Reuters was unable to immediately verify battlefield reports from either side.
TREATING THE INJURED
Russian-installed Sevastopol Governor Mihail Razvozhaev put the death toll at four, with 144 injured, including 82 taken to hospitals. Twenty-seven children were among the injured.
Specialist doctors were being flown in from other parts of Russia.
Russia will respond to Sunday's attack, the Defence Ministry said, without elaborating.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pppr719rlo
Time to cue 'Napalm sticks to kids..."
https://youtu.be/uMUPsJzrUe4?si=j41JkBcGpjIE8ESG
06-24-2024, 09:44 AM
#3380
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,829
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