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Old 02-09-2023, 04:55 PM
  #311  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
And we have spent decades trying to get Western Europe to fund their own defense, but we’ve failed because they won’t. Not because they can’t, a number of EU nations have GDPs well above those of the USSR, but because they won’t. Perhaps we are sanctioning the wrong target.
I need to know, what is your ideal US policy? What would you like to see happen? Please be succinct and clear.

What should the US do wrt to this conflict starting tomorrow?
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Old 02-09-2023, 10:48 PM
  #312  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
I need to know, what is your ideal US policy? What would you like to see happen? Please be succinct and clear.

What should the US do wrt to this conflict starting tomorrow?
I'd like for B.I.D.E.N.S. sanctions, that he promised would work last year... To start working... The old man has actually made Russia stronger. Color me shocked Corn Pop messed something up.
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Old 02-10-2023, 08:01 AM
  #313  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
I need to know, what is your ideal US policy? What would you like to see happen? Please be succinct and clear.

What should the US do wrt to this conflict starting tomorrow?
Start negotiating to get the best deal possible for Ukraine. The borders of Ukraine are ALWAYS going to include Russia and Belarus. That ain’t politics, it’s geography. Russia is no more going to permit them to become part of NATO than we permitted the old Soviet Union to put nuclear armed missiles in Cuba. That the Russians are even more paranoid about that than the US was doesn’t change the fact that a country of paranoids controls a plurality of nuclear weapons and that’s a reality that must be dealt with.

so what do YOU think we ought to do wrt this conflict starting tomorrow? A no-fly zone? NATO boots on the ground? Nuke’em until they glow?

And how do you propose making the rest of the EU actually pay for their own defense - at least their pro rate share. At least the last six US administrations have demanded that, and it hasn’t happened yet.
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Old 02-10-2023, 09:27 AM
  #314  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Start negotiating to get the best deal possible for Ukraine. The borders of Ukraine are ALWAYS going to include Russia and Belarus. That ain’t politics, it’s geography. Russia is no more going to permit them to become part of NATO than we permitted the old Soviet Union to put nuclear armed missiles in Cuba. That the Russians are even more paranoid about that than the US was doesn’t change the fact that a country of paranoids controls a plurality of nuclear weapons and that’s a reality that must be dealt with.
RU needs to come to the table. They could get a treaty which precludes NATO membership for UR in exchange for some territorial guarantees. They could keep Sevastopol, and at least some kind of neutral zone corridor for over-land access. Possibly guarantees of limited self-governance for some ethnic russian provinces?


Originally Posted by Excargodog
And how do you propose making the rest of the EU actually pay for their own defense - at least their pro rate share. At least the last six US administrations have demanded that, and it hasn’t happened yet.
Pull most of our forces out, gradually. Keep just enough to serve as a trip-wire deterrent so that RU knows it's attacking the US if it moves into western europe. Keep mostly mobile assets, taciar and naval combatants. That way we don't have a bunch of American teenagers facing a meet-grinder, and we have flexibility. Also not abandoning our allies. Then we could offer additional forward-based forces for NATO, specifically ground forces, when and if the allies start providing more of their own.

We probably have to pull some stuff out to get them to take us seriously.

The unfortunate downside of that is it sends a message to the bad guys that we're not committed... so you have to consider when's a good time to take the risk? There is no good time, but some times are worse than others. Right now is probably a worse time.
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Old 02-10-2023, 01:06 PM
  #315  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Start negotiating to get the best deal possible for Ukraine. The borders of Ukraine are ALWAYS going to include Russia and Belarus. That ain’t politics, it’s geography. Russia is no more going to permit them to become part of NATO than we permitted the old Soviet Union to put nuclear armed missiles in Cuba. That the Russians are even more paranoid about that than the US was doesn’t change the fact that a country of paranoids controls a plurality of nuclear weapons and that’s a reality that must be dealt with.

so what do YOU think we ought to do wrt this conflict starting tomorrow? A no-fly zone? NATO boots on the ground? Nuke’em until they glow?

And how do you propose making the rest of the EU actually pay for their own defense - at least their pro rate share. At least the last six US administrations have demanded that, and it hasn’t happened yet.
Keep Supporting Ukraine in the manner that we are. It is irrelevant to our national interests wether the EU ponies up or not.
1. Russia must not be allowed to annex any more territory. The world must be shown that military campaigns for monetary gains (deep water port/bread basket) will not be tolerated. There is American hypocrisy in this statement, and I agree that the US should not be invading other countries as well without clear guidelines.
2. It sets a hard line for any other country with territorial expansion ideas (China)
3. It sets a precedent that if we are willing to send our gear to a non alliance partner, we will send boots to nato if needed.
4. An altruistic ideal is standing up to autocratic strongmen. We sacrificed 450k Americans to keep democratic rule in Europe, we lost an unknown amount fighting the cold war. We cannot in good faith throw in the towel now.
5. We will not be swayed by nukes on conventional matters. You may have nukes to ensure territorial integrity, but step outside this boundaries and it’s game on. That is the only way to defeat evil humans.

We don’t need a no fly zone, Cruise missiles non withstanding,The Ukrainians are dealing with it. There are zero sorties of aircraft providing CAS/interdiction.

At the end of the day the western world should not negotiate with terrorists.

If the Ukrainians want to fight then they deserve our support. They have the right to chose, they understand the ramifications.
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Old 02-10-2023, 02:19 PM
  #316  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
Keep Supporting Ukraine in the manner that we are. It is irrelevant to our national interests wether the EU ponies up or not.
1. Russia must not be allowed to annex any more territory. The world must be shown that military campaigns for monetary gains (deep water port/bread basket) will not be tolerated. There is American hypocrisy in this statement, and I agree that the US should not be invading other countries as well without clear guidelines.
2. It sets a hard line for any other country with territorial expansion ideas (China)
3. It sets a precedent that if we are willing to send our gear to a non alliance partner, we will send boots to nato if needed.
4. An altruistic ideal is standing up to autocratic strongmen. We sacrificed 450k Americans to keep democratic rule in Europe, we lost an unknown amount fighting the cold war. We cannot in good faith throw in the towel now.
5. We will not be swayed by nukes on conventional matters. You may have nukes to ensure territorial integrity, but step outside this boundaries and it’s game on. That is the only way to defeat evil humans.

We don’t need a no fly zone, Cruise missiles non withstanding,The Ukrainians are dealing with it. There are zero sorties of aircraft providing CAS/interdiction.

At the end of the day the western world should not negotiate with terrorists.

If the Ukrainians want to fight then they deserve our support. They have the right to chose, they understand the ramifications.
I think your post is impossibly naive - especially the part about it being irrelevant to US interests if the EU funds their own defense, which we have now been contributing to since we sent the first American Expeditionary Force to fight Germany in France in 1917. After a century and a quarter, maybe we ought to expect more of them.
As for the rest of your assertions, even the least naive are applicable ONLY IF UKRAINE CAN WIN, and I think the likelihood of that is less than 50% - less than 5% that they will ever regain Crimea. And while I am all in favor of anyone (and everyone) fighting against their oppressors, I see no reason that the US ought to fund it.

As for ‘not being swayed on conventional matters,’ the reason WE bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki was that we were unwilling to take the casualties that a conventional attack on the Japanese Home Islands would have cost us. And this after the Japanese fleet was already in ruins and the Japanese Infrastructure already crippled. Are you saying that the Russians are less likely to fight for a country that borders their own than we were to fight for the Japanese Islands - the Pacific Ocean away from the United States? Why would you assume this won’t escalate to nukes on their side since we did under arguably less threatening circumstances,

RickAir’s comments seem far more realistic,
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Old 02-10-2023, 02:34 PM
  #317  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
I think your post is impossibly naive - especially the part about it being irrelevant to US interests if the EU funds their own defense, which we have now been contributing to since we sent the first American Expeditionary Force to fight Germany in France in 1917. After a century and a quarter, maybe we ought to expect more of them.
As for the rest of your assertions, even the least naive are applicable ONLY IF UKRAINE CAN WIN, and I think the likelihood of that is less than 50% - less than 5% that they will ever regain Crimea. And while I am all in favor of anyone (and everyone) fighting against their oppressors, I see no reason that the US ought to fund it.

As for ‘not being swayed on conventional matters,’ the reason WE bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki was that we were unwilling to take the casualties that a conventional attack on the Japanese Home Islands would have cost us. And this after the Japanese fleet was already in ruins and the Japanese Infrastructure already crippled. Are you saying that the Russians are less likely to fight for a country that borders their own than we were to fight for the Japanese Islands - the Pacific Ocean away from the United States? Why would you assume this won’t escalate to nukes on their side since we did under arguably less threatening circumstances,

RickAir’s comments seem far more realistic,
EU funding their own defense is irrelevant in the immediate action. Which is what we were talking about right?the Ukraine conflict?

We had the support of the entire western world during ww2. Russia is alone. To even remotely suggest that nukes in ww2 is the same as nukes in Ukraine is ridiculous at best. the Japanese didn’t have nukes.

You are a defeatist with no concept of people fighting for their homeland. You fail to answer any of the points I make wrt expansionism, precedence, China etc. you pander right wing tucker talking points. You sir, are naive wrt the hearts of men willing to fight.

This is why we can’t talk, I answered YOUR question without making pokes and you call me naive. You don’t want discussion, you want an emotional argument. You have been filled with propaganda. At this point I just pity you. And fortunately men and women with more fortitude than you are in charge.

I’ve now divested myself of all emotion regarding our discourse. You deserve and get nothing more from me. I stand by all my previous sentiments. Particularly a troll for a foreign government, and the constitution of your soul. Don’t ever PM me again, it’s pathetically weak. Good day sir

To anyone else I’m happy to talk tactics and strategy regarding this conflict, but will not feed the Russian troll anymore. My apologies for the childish tangent.

Last edited by Hubcapped; 02-10-2023 at 02:56 PM.
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Old 02-10-2023, 06:06 PM
  #318  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
EU funding their own defense is irrelevant in the immediate action. Which is what we were talking about right?the Ukraine conflict?

We had the support of the entire western world during ww2. Russia is alone. To even remotely suggest that nukes in ww2 is the same as nukes in Ukraine is ridiculous at best. the Japanese didn’t have nukes.

You are a defeatist with no concept of people fighting for their homeland. You fail to answer any of the points I make wrt expansionism, precedence, China etc. you pander right wing tucker talking points. You sir, are naive wrt the hearts of men willing to fight.

This is why we can’t talk, I answered YOUR question without making pokes and you call me naive. You don’t want discussion, you want an emotional argument. You have been filled with propaganda. At this point I just pity you. And fortunately men and women with more fortitude than you are in charge.

I’ve now divested myself of all emotion regarding our discourse. You deserve and get nothing more from me. I stand by all my previous sentiments. Particularly a troll for a foreign government, and the constitution of your soul. Don’t ever PM me again, it’s pathetically weak. Good day sir

To anyone else I’m happy to talk tactics and strategy regarding this conflict, but will not feed the Russian troll anymore. My apologies for the childish tangent.
Clearly, everybody who disagrees with you is a commie troll. Or a Tucker Carlson clone. It makes it easier not to listen to FACTS. Facts that you do not feel like hearing.

Nor do you seem to know a great deal about history. We did not, for instance, “have the support of the entire western world in WW2. Two of those western world nations, Germany and Italy, were in fact the enemy. The USSR, strangely enough, was our ally (or at least the enemy of our enemy). Excepting Great Britain, pretty much the rest of the western world was either neutral (Switzerland, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and a bevy of smaller states like Monaco, Vatican City, etc) or occupied (several of those at least nominally working against us (See Vichy government in France, Quisling government in Norway) and while technically occupied, Austria had nearly 10% of its population in the Nazi party and committed 1.3 million troops to the war.

Nor is Russia alone now. Besides neighboring Belarus, they have the tacit support of the Chinese, the Serbs, as well as pretty much everybody else that is ignoring the sanctions we place against them including India staying neutral.
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/0...-war-pub-86961

Having the two most populous countries on Earth (total of 2.8 billion people) trading with you is scarcely the same as being alone.

And there are many other nations besides helping them evade the sanctions the west has imposed- which is why the sanctions turned out to be far less effective than the State Department predicted.

https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-09-13-...ainst-ukraine/

an excerpt:

Distrust toward the West and acknowledgement of Russia’s position as a primary global energy and food supplier have incentivised sustained cooperation with Moscow throughout the world. India, for example, has continued to purchase weapons from Russia, as well as rapidly increasing its energy imports from it. Other Western partners and allies, including Turkey, have refused to take part in sanctioning Russia, alongside countries across the global south.

Inconsistencies and a lack of clarity between Western states have, meanwhile, hampered the effectiveness of Western sanctions, but entities aligned with the West have also wittingly complemented Russia’s war effort. In June, the US commerce department added financial actors from several countries, including Lithuania and the UK, to its list of companies blacklisted for helping Russia bypass sanctions and support its war effort
Nor did I say that the Japanese had nukes, I said that WE had nukes and used them rather than take the casualties we would have had to take to conquer the Japanese Home Islands. We did that precisely BECAUSE these were zealots fighting for their homeland. The whole Island-hopping campaign in the Pacific was because of the Japanese being zealots fighting for their homeland. Almost 150,000 civilians and 110,000 Japanese military died on Okinawa - along with 12,000 US soldiers. Clearly, far more than you I understand about people dying for their homeland. Have you never studied history at all, far less military history?

Exactly why you think the Russians might not make a similar move against non-nuclear armed Ukraine you still have not explained.

But fine, take your ball (and your ignorance and ad hominem attacks) and go home. You needn’t respond to any of my postings. In fact you can block them altogether so you won’t have to read them at all. But don’t expect that to stop me from giving facts, an appropriate historical persoective, and my opinions.
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Old 02-10-2023, 09:08 PM
  #319  
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Default Recent Rand report on War options and risks…

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran..._PEA2510-1.pdf
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Old 02-10-2023, 10:25 PM
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What’s that vlad? I can’t hear you over the click clacking if the other Russian hackers sitting next to you. Or it could be tucker blaring in the background. Not sure
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