Excargodog

See PM. (Filler)

Excargodog

An article worth perusing:

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukra...-german-tanks/

And some more general background:

https://mwi.usma.edu/logistics-deter...ted-logistics/

rickair7777

Valid, it's kind of a hot mess logistically.

But they can possibly retrograde the hardware to a place like PL for heavier mx. They don't necessarily have to do it exactly the same way that we/NATO do. Obviously it would matter what their in-country east/west log bandwidth is, and how robust. I haven't paid much attention to UR, it seems that the rooskies are ones struggling on that front.

They could definitely do that with aircraft, fly them to other countries for anything more complicated than line mx.

Excargodog

I just addended a USMA article on the Russian logistics options. In truth, nobody is immune to the logistics problems in a war. But having a common border that you can deliver supplies to by rail is a huge benefit. After that, we’ll, as the USMA article says, you got about four options.

Another thing that those who have never been stationed in Europe might not totally realize is that many of the roads are just cr@p. With towns long predating the automobile, it’s really difficult to get outsized equipment anywhere. I haven’t lived in the Ukraine, or even been there, but that’s the case in much of Western Europe. Even Germany, outside of the autobahns, it was h€LL to get big equipment to areas not served by autobahns, and you don’t (generally speaking) actually drive tanks to a war. Most of them have a service life of only 3-5 thousand miles before they need a total rebuild. You carry them there on tank transporters which are even bigger than a tank - or by rail.



The tank transporters get about 1.7 miles per gallon which - Lord knows - is better mileage than most tanks but even so, driving them is a nightmare according to my Army buddy.

https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-i...r-system-hets/

As for rail transport, both the Ukraine and Russia use the same Russian (1520mm broad) standard. Poland has a mix of gauges but the US (1435mm) standard predominates as it does in most of Western Europe.

Prior to the war, the roads in Ukraine were rated among the worst in Europe:

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/1...oads-in-europe

I doubt the war has seen them improve much.

Hubcapped

I read through the articles. They are interesting for sure. One thing they don’t account for is the human factor. Where there is a will there is a way, and the Ukrainians certainly have the will. I could see them holding the chally 2’s and M1s as a strategic reserve, and focus on the 2A#’s like the gentleman in the article suggested. Leapards have a lot of variants but the underlying mechanical chasis are generally the same. Imho what we are going to see are the Ukrainians doing what they do best and perform strategic withdrawals and sucker the Russians in. Then punce with atgms drones and hi Mars. Tbh I don’t really know why the russians think they can advance again. They got smacked in 22’ and I believe the new chief of ground forces is going to do the same thing. They are facing a battle hardened enemy, that is well supplied for defensive operations, on ground that the Ukrainians are willing to sacrifice to achieve the greater goal of victory. Make no mistake the Ukrainians are fighting to the last man/village. The Russians are pretty stupid if they push an offensive campaign. I could see them mass ground forces on the current lines and then claim the land.

Excargodog

Regarding the will of the Ukrainians, there is a very old pre-political correctness axiom:

While a good big man will generally beat a good little man, you still don’t want to get in a knife fight with a midget in a phone booth.

it’s hard to deny that the Ukrainians have put up a good fight, surprising perhaps everyone but the Ukrainians themselves. But I question the virtue of “fighting to the last Ukrainian”, because that might actually happen.

The Russians have made tactical and strategic blunders, but they have the depth and the numbers they can afford to do that. Another old wartime axiom: Quantity has a quality all of its own. And much as he is reviled here and around the Western world, Putin’s support at home is largely undiminished and even if the rumors of his ill health are true, his death would likely mean his replacement by someone no less willing to keep this going than he is.

I agree with the author who said that one way or another, the Ukraine is going to come out of this betrayed. In fact, they already have been when the US and Europe stood idly by as the Minsk agreement was violated by the Russians taking Crimea. But the truth is this: The West is never going to give the Ukraine the sorts of weapons that would permit them to actually take the war to Russia and the geography is never going to change - the Ukraine will always have common borders with Russia and Belarus. Ultimately this will have either a diplomatic settlement or Russia will win. Well, that or WWIII. Those seem to be the only real possibilities.

And the Russians do seem about ready to make their offensive push:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u...sion-rcna68751

Hubcapped

I think they will settle, join nato, Cold War 3. I doubt the Russians will have the stomach for another 100k 20 something’s coming home in body bags

Excargodog

I don’t know. Once you cry havoc and let slip the dogs of War, things can get ugly quickly. Most people don’t actually fight like casualty averse Americans, they sort of just go for it:


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Hubcapped

I would counter that fighting an invader on your soil (Germany), is a very different sell than losing 100k a year invading your neighbor. Imo the Russians are going to launch an offensive campaign, satellites and drones will reveal every LOA and the Ukrainians will do what they’ve been doing, feeding the bear it’s own guts for lunch.

METO Guido

If you don’t mind, what’s the motivation for your effort here?