DON’T COUNT ON US: CANADA’S MILITARY UNREADINESS

PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ AND JUSTIN MASSIE
APRIL 11, 2024
COMMENTARY

Canada’s military is in a “death spiral.” This is how Minister of National Defense Bill Blair described the state of Canada’s armed forces at last month’s Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense. Blair’s comments referenced the military’s dire recruitment and retention crisis. The Canadian Armed Forces are short 16,000 people — about 15 percent of their authorized strength of 71,500 regular forces and 30,000 primary reserve forces. Despite efforts such as opening the military to permanent residents, there’s no indication that the situation will improve.

Allies and critics are rightfully calling on Canada to meet the 2 percent of gross domestic product spending target agreed to by NATO, but the Canadian military’s troubles are deeper than insufficient funds. Canada’s ability to meaningfully contribute to major allied operations is in doubt for the foreseeable future. Despite increased defense spending by 70percent between 2017 and 2026, an internal report on the readiness of the Canadian Armed Forces was released to the media the same week that Blair made his remarks. The report paints a bleak picture: Most of Canada’s major fleets are unavailable or unserviceable. Indeed, on average, only 45 percent of Canada’s air force fleet is operational, while the Royal Canadian Navy can operate at 46 percent of its capacity and the army at 54 percent. This means that even Canada’s minor military projection ambition — which consists of only three frigates, two fighter jet squadrons, and one mechanized brigade — is not assured. As the ninth largest economy in the world and twelfth largest per capita, Canada actually contributes little to allied security and cannot be relied upon to sustain its own limited ambition.

There are few indications that things will get better soon. On 8 April 2024, the Canadian government announced more than $72 billion in new defense funding over the next two decades. This is projected to bring Canadian military expenditures to a peak of 1.76 percent of gross domestic product in 2029.

Most of this new spending, however, is years away and won’t address the military’s immediate woes. To be blunt, Canada’s military is in an atrocious state and is barely holding on. The roots of this crisis are found in Canada’s strategic culture and decades-old decisions about defense. The way out of the crisis, meanwhile, is paved with seemingly insuperable obstacles, including a chronic shortage of personnel, an inability to spend funds quickly, a lack of bipartisan agreement on military requirements, and a culture of reactiveness and unpreparedness toward new geopolitical challenges.

Even if vital reforms and budget increases were made today, they would take years to implement and at least a decade to rehabilitate the armed forces. For Canada, this is all the more reason to start as quickly as possible. For Canada’s allies, it is further reason to have realistic expectations about Canada’s military contribution over the coming years. In short, don’t count on Canada until structural reforms are implemented.

Ukraine army chief says Russia making significant 'gains' in east of country

2 hours ago
By Thomas Mackintosh,BBC News

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cpsprodpb/13A4C/production/_130406408_a112f2838098f2fd7a70a4d0ae25e4b8f2a2c4d e.jpg.webpReutersGen Oleksandr Syrskyi (L) was appointed as commander of Ukraine's military by President Zelensky last yearThe head of Ukraine's military has warned the battlefield situation in the east of the country has "significantly worsened" in recent days.
Fierce battles are ongoing in a several villages in the eastern Donbas region.
Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia was benefitting from warm weather - making terrain more accessible to its tanks - and making tactical gains.
It comes as Germany said it will give Ukraine an extra Patriot missile defence system to fend off air attacks.
In his update posted to social media on Saturday, Gen Syrskyi explained the situation on the eastern front had deteriorated as Russia intensified its armoured assaults

Germany to send Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine but holds out on Taurus missiles

Berlin is still refusing to send Kyiv Taurus cruise missiles — a move Zelenskyy sharply criticized earlier this week.

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Kyiv has been pleading with its Western allies for additional military supplies, including more Patriot missile batteries. Western support has weakened in recent months, with a major American aid package held up by partisan bickering in the U.S. Congress.

"This is a real manifestation of support for Ukraine at a critical time for us," Zelenskyy said in a statement on the Ukrainian government website. "I call on all other leaders of the partner states to follow suit," he said.

Despite the new aid, Scholz is still refusing to provide Kyiv with Taurus cruise missiles — a move Zelenskyy sharply criticized earlier this week. Ukraine wants the German-made Taurus missiles, which have a range of around 500 kilometers and carry a powerful warhead, in order to strike targets behind the frontlines, such as the Kerch Bridge linking Russia and occupied Crimea.

Scholz has adamantly refused to send the German missiles to Ukraine, arguing that it could lead to an escalation of the war or even draw Germany into direct conflict with Russia.

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https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2024/04/2024-01-23T151013Z_1414608104_RC2YM5AOXLGE_RTRMADP_3_IRAN-MILITARY-1024x683.jpgBy —Associated Press


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Israeli military says Iran has launched drones at Israel, will take hours to arrive

World Apr 13, 2024 4:11 PM EDTJERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli military says Iran has launched drones at Israel, will take hours to arrive.

This is a developing story and will be updated

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Israeli military says Iran has launched drones at Israel, will take hours to arrive

World Updated on Apr 13, 2024 4:35 PM EDT — Published on Apr 13, 2024 4:11 PM EDTJERUSALEM (AP) — The Israeli military says Iran has launched a number of drones toward Israel.

The army’s spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said it would take several hours for the aircraft to arrive. He said Israel was prepared. He spoke Saturday evening.

Israel has been on heightened alert since an airstrike last week killed two Iranian generals in Syria. Iran accused Israel of being behind the attack and vowed revenge. Israel has not commented on that attack.

A U.S. official briefed on the attack said Iran had launched “dozens” of drones. The official could not publicly discuss details of the attack and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.

READ MORE: Biden flies to D.C. to meet with national security team as Iran launches drones against Israel

Earlier Saturday, the Israeli military said it was canceling school and limiting public gatherings to no more than 1,000 people as a safety precaution.

Briefing reporters, Hagari said Israel is “prepared and ready” with defensive and offensive actions. He also said there was “tight” cooperation with the U.S. and other partners in the region.

The head of the U.S. Central Command, Gen. Erik Kurilla, has been in Israel in recent days to coordinate with Israel about the Iranian threats.

Israel has a number of layers of air defense capable of intercepting everything from long-range missiles to UAV’s and short-range rockets. Hagari said Israel has an “excellent air defense system” but stressed it is not 100 percent effective and urged the public to listen to safety announcements.

AP writer Michael Balsamo in New York contributed.

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The West is not prepared for this kind of war. To most Western experts, attritional strategy is counterintuitive. Historically, the West preferred the short ‘winner takes all’ clash of professional armies. Recent war games such as CSIS’s war over Taiwan covered one month of fighting. The possibility that the war would go on never entered the discussion. This is a reflection of a common Western attitude. Wars of attrition are treated as exceptions, something to be avoided at all costs and generally products of leaders’ ineptitude. Unfortunately, wars between near-peer powers are likely to be attritional, thanks to a large pool of resources available to replace initial losses. The attritional nature of combat, including the erosion of professionalism due to casualties, levels the battlefield no matter which army started with better trained forces. As conflict drags on, the war is won by economies, not armies. States that grasp this and fight such a war via an attritional strategy aimed at exhausting enemy resources while preserving their own are more likely to win. The fastest way to lose a war of attrition is to focus on manoeuvre, expending valuable resources on near-term territorial objectives. Recognising that wars of attrition have their own art is vital to winning them without sustaining crippling losses.