Ukraine conflict
#2551
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Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 721
If you think the US military will look to armed civilians as a substitution for activating the draft, then maybe you aren't the brilliant military mind you think you are.
#2552
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 721
#2553
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Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,036
Strawman argument from someone who doesn't even know international trade existed before WW1. Given that we BIUGHT the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska, you'd think anyone woukd have realized that. Raised in California, I had to learn how Spain became one of the most powerful countries on Earth through its colonies before I could graduate from middle school.
Russian Army staging in Canada? You realize that the FBI estimates (because nobody really knows) there are 450 million firearms in private hands in the US? Not to mention nuclear weapons.
This sounds an awful lot like what Hub calls "fear porn".
Russian Army staging in Canada? You realize that the FBI estimates (because nobody really knows) there are 450 million firearms in private hands in the US? Not to mention nuclear weapons.
This sounds an awful lot like what Hub calls "fear porn".
#2554
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Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,036
#2555
This was an exercise in drawing a direct comparison to the plight of Ukraine as if it was on America's border. You failed.
If you think the US military will look to armed civilians as a substitution for activating the draft, then maybe you aren't the brilliant military mind you think you are.
If you think the US military will look to armed civilians as a substitution for activating the draft, then maybe you aren't the brilliant military mind you think you are.
it was, to put it mildly, a stupid comparison and a ridiculous strawman argument.
#2556
Cargo:
You frequently cite the Real Clear websites.
I have questioned some in the past.
This one is almost assuredly false. Russian economy, according to neighbors who would know, is suffering.
Example:
Last year Russia claimed an inflation rate at one point of 4%. A Polish economist called it laughable, that it was closer to 65%. Is 65% correct? I don't know. The point is that quoting Russian sourced econ numbers is not a good idea.
Growing economies have increases in energy usage, cement, and air pollution amongst other stuff. What outsiders can discern doesn't match what Russia states.
There is a tendency to state things as literal. "they said such and such" (whomever "they" is). Gee, such and such didn't 100% come to pass, hence what was predicted is totally wrong.
You are smart enough to know that most stuff is a matter of degree. Also that even if something isn't 100% accurate, that doesn't mean the entire narrative...or it's point...is invalid.
You frequently cite the Real Clear websites.
I have questioned some in the past.
This one is almost assuredly false. Russian economy, according to neighbors who would know, is suffering.
Example:
Last year Russia claimed an inflation rate at one point of 4%. A Polish economist called it laughable, that it was closer to 65%. Is 65% correct? I don't know. The point is that quoting Russian sourced econ numbers is not a good idea.
Growing economies have increases in energy usage, cement, and air pollution amongst other stuff. What outsiders can discern doesn't match what Russia states.
There is a tendency to state things as literal. "they said such and such" (whomever "they" is). Gee, such and such didn't 100% come to pass, hence what was predicted is totally wrong.
You are smart enough to know that most stuff is a matter of degree. Also that even if something isn't 100% accurate, that doesn't mean the entire narrative...or it's point...is invalid.
Here, for instance, is a video just posted by the Voice of America - hardly a proRussian source.
https://www.voanews.com/a/despite-sa...w/7523062.html
others have similar opinions:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/0...rols-pub-91894
This is the current World Bank analysis:
Recent developments
Growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is estimated to have picked up to 2.7 percent in 2023 from 1.2 percent in 2022. This recovery primarily reflects firming private consumption, supported by additional fiscal support, robust labor market conditions, and the resumption of growth in Russia and Ukraine. The 1.3 percentage point upward revision from the June 2023 forecast is mainly due to upgrades for these two countries and Türkiye. Excluding them, growth in ECA in 2023 markedly decelerated, to an estimated 1.8 percent, with particularly weak outcomes in Central Europe. Manufacturing activity remained subdued in the second half of the year, while retail sales continued to soften (figure 2.2.1.A).
In Russia, output expanded by an estimated 2.6 percent in 2023. This stronger-than-expected recovery was fueled by substantial fiscal support, including additional military spending. Oil production and exports contracted modestly, and the authorities announced end-2023 an extension of the export curbs of 300,000 barrels per day as well as a deepening by 200,000 barrels per day starting in January 2024. Exchange rate deprecia- tion led to an inflation uptick, prompting subsequent increases in the policy interest rate. Migration from Central Asia to Russia increased after the invasion, with 43 percent of all entrants migrating for work purposes in 2023 (figure 2.2.1.B).
Growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is estimated to have picked up to 2.7 percent in 2023 from 1.2 percent in 2022. This recovery primarily reflects firming private consumption, supported by additional fiscal support, robust labor market conditions, and the resumption of growth in Russia and Ukraine. The 1.3 percentage point upward revision from the June 2023 forecast is mainly due to upgrades for these two countries and Türkiye. Excluding them, growth in ECA in 2023 markedly decelerated, to an estimated 1.8 percent, with particularly weak outcomes in Central Europe. Manufacturing activity remained subdued in the second half of the year, while retail sales continued to soften (figure 2.2.1.A).
In Russia, output expanded by an estimated 2.6 percent in 2023. This stronger-than-expected recovery was fueled by substantial fiscal support, including additional military spending. Oil production and exports contracted modestly, and the authorities announced end-2023 an extension of the export curbs of 300,000 barrels per day as well as a deepening by 200,000 barrels per day starting in January 2024. Exchange rate deprecia- tion led to an inflation uptick, prompting subsequent increases in the policy interest rate. Migration from Central Asia to Russia increased after the invasion, with 43 percent of all entrants migrating for work purposes in 2023 (figure 2.2.1.B).
Increasingly it looks like the sanctions have proven ineffective at crippling Russias economy. But clearly money for the war must come from somewhere and that most likely is the standard of living of the Russian people. But export controls are not really affecting the Russians ability to sell oil and gas to India and China or to trade with the global south.
So yeah, there will ALWAYS be differences of opinion and oftentimes exact values can never be known. But clearly, Russia is working around the great majority of the sanctions, and with the two most populous countries in the world - India and China - not really participating in those sanctions, it is difficult to see them being nearly as effective as they were once predicted to be. You are entitled to a different opinion if you wish, but that's mine.
#2557
https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-dutc...7th-centuries/
You really never did learn any history, did you?
#2558
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Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 197
If you think the Russian Army is going to work the logistics to go through Siberia across the Bering Strait to go through Alaska so they can work their way down Canada to the US border where they can take on a nation with over double their population when they have been challenged to support a war against a nation with a quarter their population and 600 miles of common border you are even more ignorant than your lack of knowledge of 3000 years of pre WWI supply chains have already shown.
it was, to put it mildly, a stupid comparison and a ridiculous strawman argument.
it was, to put it mildly, a stupid comparison and a ridiculous strawman argument.
#2559
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 197
If you think the Russian Army is going to work the logistics to go through Siberia across the Bering Strait to go through Alaska so they can work their way down Canada to the US border where they can take on a nation with over double their population when they have been challenged to support a war against a nation with a quarter their population and 600 miles of common border you are even more ignorant than your lack of knowledge of 3000 years of pre WWI supply chains have already shown.
it was, to put it mildly, a stupid comparison and a ridiculous strawman argument.
it was, to put it mildly, a stupid comparison and a ridiculous strawman argument.
#2560
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 721
Another remarkably ignorant comment. The Netherlands never had an empire but they were at one time (and that before WW1) a leader in global trade, and not just in tulips either:
https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-dutc...7th-centuries/
You really never did learn any history, did you?
https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-dutc...7th-centuries/
You really never did learn any history, did you?
We're getting sidetracked. Let's bring it home. And let's keep it in the present. We can discuss Letters of marque another day.
Behold. Humanity's greatest achievement. The global supply chain. It's no longer the Silk Road, It's the Silk Super Highway. Economies are interwoven in a way that we are damn-near inseparable. And this is where isolationists detach from reality. There is no way you can affect one area of the world without causing ripples in another.
So for you to be so cavalier about war in Europe is self-destructive at best. Intentionally malicious at worst.
Excargodog, you're a Airbus guy, no?
Let me show you something.
You spend 1000 hours a year strapped to a French-German-UK built airliner. Your future, your friends' futures, your coworkers', your employer's, are inextricably linked to the fate of Europe. Your life is made better, your future is more secure through peace. Insured by the NATO alliance. NATO was formed because Russia has been, and will be a known threat. And now, at the time that the threat is most prescient, you want to walk away from our commitments.
In a future that we get everything you wanted, our lives will be worse off. There's no doubt of it. I assume you'd have to move your sights to another target for the source of your woes. And that's the problem with isolationists. It's selfishness is unquenchable. Sever Europe. Then sever the blue states. Then neighbors. Until it's just you, manning the walls of your compound.
Your ideas will take us back 1000 years.
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