Ukraine conflict
02-19-2024, 02:40 PM
#2291
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
Everything else you typed is chaff.
Everything else you typed is chaff.
Look, I would like for Ukraine to win probably just as much as you would but that's certainly not the way to bet. Nor will ignoring logistical and manpower constraints help to make a Ukrainian victory a reality. That's why the recently deposed Ukrainian Military Chief of Staff said that he needed another 500,000 troops. Ask him what he thinks about force multipliers.
02-19-2024, 02:58 PM
#2292
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,831
Yep. Enough to know that force multipliers are also LOSS multipliers because you are depending on every individual to do more with less. But you still need the individuals.
Anyone who believes manpower constraints are "chaff" is ignorant about warfare. Especially when what's being fought is a meatgrinder type trench war ala 1917.
Look, I would like for Ukraine to win probably just as much as you would but that's certainly not the way to bet. Nor will ignoring logistical and manpower constraints help to make a Ukrainian victory a reality. That's why the recently deposed Ukrainian Military Chief of Staff said that he needed another 500,000 troops. Ask him what he thinks about force multipliers.
Anyone who believes manpower constraints are "chaff" is ignorant about warfare. Especially when what's being fought is a meatgrinder type trench war ala 1917.
Look, I would like for Ukraine to win probably just as much as you would but that's certainly not the way to bet. Nor will ignoring logistical and manpower constraints help to make a Ukrainian victory a reality. That's why the recently deposed Ukrainian Military Chief of Staff said that he needed another 500,000 troops. Ask him what he thinks about force multipliers.
US/NATO boots, racked & tapped, in-theater semi-direct support. Full press for a DMZ accord. Want to rescue Ukraine, that’s the move.
02-19-2024, 03:46 PM
#2293
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
As I said, if you want Ukraine to "win" (total return of Crimea and occupied Oblasts) you need either US boots on the ground, tactical nukes, or strategic nukes. The resource disparity is otherwise too great. After thirty years of taking "peace dividends" the EU isn't going to be much help. They've now had a decade to increase their defense capability since Crimea and Georgia, and they are still just talking about how they are GOING to do it. Wars are come as you are and you aren't going to win them by weapons and ordnance you are TALKING about buying.
02-19-2024, 04:01 PM
#2294
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,831
As I said, if you want Ukraine to "win" (total return of Crimea and occupied Oblasts) you need either US boots on the ground, tactical nukes, or strategic nukes. The resource disparity is otherwise too great. After thirty years of taking "peace dividends" the EU isn't going to be much help. They've now had a decade to increase their defense capability since Crimea and Georgia, and they are still just talking about how they are GOING to do it. Wars are come as you are and you aren't going to win them by weapons and ordnance you are TALKING about buying.
https://youtu.be/MxQXKO194XM?si=QtcJwRDtdZCEVegD
Last edited by METO Guido; 02-19-2024 at 04:04 PM. Reason: The attachments are d’ed up
02-19-2024, 05:14 PM
#2295
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
These are Russians. As in Ivan the Terrible Russians. Hard as they come SOBs. But in no manner stupid or lazy. Far too late in the game for a head fake now. No boots,no ceasefire resolution. Got to take it to the limit. One more time https://youtu.be/MxQXKO194XM?si=QtcJwRDtdZCEVegD
https://youtu.be/MxQXKO194XM?si=QtcJwRDtdZCEVegDhttps://youtu.be/V6BspF9Ie9M?si=Z2d3s4wUy8tWV0IU
02-19-2024, 07:06 PM
#2296
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,831
Although 70 years old and almost certainly obsolete, this still has the world record if anyone really wants to go to the limit...
https://youtu.be/V6BspF9Ie9M?si=Z2d3s4wUy8tWV0IU
https://youtu.be/V6BspF9Ie9M?si=Z2d3s4wUy8tWV0IU
02-19-2024, 07:18 PM
#2297
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
Taking it to the limit is faith it won’t be crossed. So another tsar’s reign has transformed into a global rico scheme. Surprise to no one growing up in the 50/60s. Will the battle for Ukraine pause Nikita like or is this time Shroomville for untold millions? Stay tuned for episode III.
https://news.yahoo.com/nbc-biden-administration-considering-supplying-130742436.html
02-19-2024, 07:31 PM
#2298
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,831
And one wonders if thr gradual escalation of range of Western ordnance is progressively convincing our leadership that there really are no red lines, or just quietly creeping up on some red line we don't realize is there...
https://news.yahoo.com/nbc-biden-administration-considering-supplying-130742436.html
https://news.yahoo.com/nbc-biden-administration-considering-supplying-130742436.html
02-20-2024, 06:39 AM
#2299
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
Logistics, logistics, logistics…
While much of the FEBA is a no fly zone due to both sides covering it with MANPADS and other air defense systems Russian glide bombs are now giving their tactical aircraft the ability to use gravity drop weapons - of which they still have large quantities - from 25 miles behind the FEBA. It's not without risk, and they've lost some aircraft doing it - but it is certainly lower risk than trying to actually overfly the targets. And the very fact it wasn't possible to use them before the development of the glide packages means they have large quantities of the basic bombs.
https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/isw-russia-show-signs-of-localised-air-superiority-in-ukraine-for-first-time/?cf-view
Andrew Salerno-Garthwaite February 19, 2024
https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/isw-russia-show-signs-of-localised-air-superiority-in-ukraine-for-first-time/?cf-view
ISW: Russia show signs of localised air superiority in Ukraine for first time
The ISW reports that on 17 February 2024, Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainain positions in Avdiivka in one day.Andrew Salerno-Garthwaite February 19, 2024
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that Russia has “temporarily established limited and localised air superiority” during the final days of its activity in Avdiivka before the Ukrainian withdrawal.
This would likely be the first time this has happened in the war in Ukraine, a conflict marked by Mutual Air Denial, where nether side’s air forces have been able to operate outside of territory supported by ground troops.
The success of relatively inexpensive and abundant Ukrainian surface-to-air Stinger missiles and other ground air-defences has up to this date been credited with preventing Russia from fully utilising its air assets for conducting long-distance strikes. So far, they have been confined to operating in a close air support role, remaining within territory where Russia ground forces can interdict potential threats to the high cost aerial assets.
The ISW reports that on 17 February 2024, Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka in one day, citing a spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operation near the location, and added that a Ukrainian soldier in the area stated Russian forces had launched up to 500 glide bombs in recent days.
The effective deployment of glide bombs by Russia is broadly acknowledged by Russian sources as a key factor in breaching Ukrainian defences in Avdiivka. Furthermore, some Russian military bloggers have claimed that Russia has achieved air superiority in the region
Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, reported that on February 14, Russian military carried out 73 airstrikes along the Tavriisk front, from Avdiivka to western Zaporizhia Oblast, marking an unprecedented level of aerial attacks. This surge in activity is part of an intensified tactical manoeuvre in Avdiivka by Russian forces.
The ISW added that the scarcity of effective air defence systems, depleting stocks of air defence missiles, and ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian areas in the rear are likely to be compelling Ukraine to decide which frontline areas to protect with air defence.
The US research centre, well-regraded for its ongoing daily account of the Ukrainian war through openly sourced information, went on to say that periodic instances of temporary, localised, and limited air superiority by Russia could enable aggressive Russian progress along the frontline, and that a more widespread and sustained air superiority would enable them to carry out regular, large-scale aerial operations and heavily bomb Ukrainian cities behind the frontline, causing severe destruction.
This would likely be the first time this has happened in the war in Ukraine, a conflict marked by Mutual Air Denial, where nether side’s air forces have been able to operate outside of territory supported by ground troops.
The success of relatively inexpensive and abundant Ukrainian surface-to-air Stinger missiles and other ground air-defences has up to this date been credited with preventing Russia from fully utilising its air assets for conducting long-distance strikes. So far, they have been confined to operating in a close air support role, remaining within territory where Russia ground forces can interdict potential threats to the high cost aerial assets.
The ISW reports that on 17 February 2024, Russian forces launched 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka in one day, citing a spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operation near the location, and added that a Ukrainian soldier in the area stated Russian forces had launched up to 500 glide bombs in recent days.
The effective deployment of glide bombs by Russia is broadly acknowledged by Russian sources as a key factor in breaching Ukrainian defences in Avdiivka. Furthermore, some Russian military bloggers have claimed that Russia has achieved air superiority in the region
Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, reported that on February 14, Russian military carried out 73 airstrikes along the Tavriisk front, from Avdiivka to western Zaporizhia Oblast, marking an unprecedented level of aerial attacks. This surge in activity is part of an intensified tactical manoeuvre in Avdiivka by Russian forces.
The ISW added that the scarcity of effective air defence systems, depleting stocks of air defence missiles, and ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks on civilian areas in the rear are likely to be compelling Ukraine to decide which frontline areas to protect with air defence.
The US research centre, well-regraded for its ongoing daily account of the Ukrainian war through openly sourced information, went on to say that periodic instances of temporary, localised, and limited air superiority by Russia could enable aggressive Russian progress along the frontline, and that a more widespread and sustained air superiority would enable them to carry out regular, large-scale aerial operations and heavily bomb Ukrainian cities behind the frontline, causing severe destruction.
02-20-2024, 07:47 AM
#2300
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 174
As I said, if you want Ukraine to "win" (total return of Crimea and occupied Oblasts) you need either US boots on the ground, tactical nukes, or strategic nukes. The resource disparity is otherwise too great. After thirty years of taking "peace dividends" the EU isn't going to be much help. They've now had a decade to increase their defense capability since Crimea and Georgia, and they are still just talking about how they are GOING to do it. Wars are come as you are and you aren't going to win them by weapons and ordnance you are TALKING about buying.
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