FEBRUARY 5, 2024 7:22 PM CET
BY KOEN VERHELST AND CAMILLE GIJSEuropean aluminum producers — supported by four EU countries — are pressing the bloc to slap an embargo on cheap imports of the metal from Russia as part of an expected sanctions package that will mark two years since the invasion of Ukraine.

Even two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale assault, Europe is still buying 9 percent of its aluminum imports from Russia, which funded Moscow's war machine to the tune of some €2.3 billion in 2022.

Still, EU diplomats said it was unlikely a full ban would be on the cards by the two-year mark of the invasion on Feb. 24, because the proposal by Lithuania — supported by Estonia, Latvia and Poland — would likely face opposition from industrial nations like Italy which are resisting measures that could drive up prices

A sucker for symbolism, the EU is aiming to present the 13th sanctions package by that date, but the significant volumes imported mean it is unlikely a total ban would be agreed upon by all 27 countries so quickly.

Struggling with high energy costs and cheap foreign competition, European producers of the widely-used metal are hoping sanctions against Russia — which remains the world’s third largest producer — can bring some relief.

Since the fall, the EU's association of aluminum producers has argued that Brussels should cut off Russian imports completely, saying the producers have already "accelerated their decoupling."

Despite having the four EU countries on their side, the matter is now out of the producers’ hands as member countries negotiate against the clock.

Tactical bomb

European industrial consumers oppose sanctions on aluminum. Imposing them would be "a kind of economic tactical nuclear bomb," FACE, an EU grouping of industrial consumers, said in December. On behalf of Italian, German and other EU manufacturing industries, it argued that "sanctions should not be weaponised."

Two EU diplomats told POLITICO over the weekend the new package will mainly include new listings of individuals and will ban more companies from exporting dual-use goods and battlefield products to Russia. They were granted anonymity to speak freely on closed-door talks.

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Ukraine struggles to ramp up mobilization as Russia's war enters 3rd year

A recruitment poster in the Kyiv subway reads, "Join the Third Separate Assault Brigade," a unit in the Ukrainian army well-known not only for its prowess on the battlefield but for it's active efforts to recruit new volunteer fighters through advertising. (facebook.com/ab3.army)

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by Francis FarrellJanuary 23, 2024 1:22 AM14 min read
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This audio is created with AI assistanceAs Russia’s full-scale war approaches its third year and looks ready to drag on for several more, one topic is dominating the discussion in Ukraine: mobilization.

From regional capitals and small villages to the front lines of the east, from the media, the workplace, and the family, Ukraine’s acute need to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men to stay in the fight against Russia is felt everywhere.

With it comes one of the most difficult internal challenges that Ukraine faces in this war: balancing the need to defend the country’s independence from an existential threat with the painful reality of having to take hundreds of thousands of civilians — taxpayers, fathers, brothers, husbands, and sons — off to war.
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“At first everyone wanted to fight and there weren't enough weapons, but now it's clear that initial fire is gone; if it was still there, the situation on the battlefield would be easier for everyone.”

By now, both Russia and Ukraine are fighting with armies dominated by mobilized soldiers; the scale of one of the most brutal state-against-state wars since World War II demands it.

Much less territory changed hands in 2023 compared to 2022, but at the same time, the intensity of the fighting has only steadily increased, as the two sides commit more and more resources to a struggle that is of existential importance both for Vladimir Putin’s imperial vision as it is for Ukraine as a nation.

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Fear of the streets

While it’s the battlefield units that need the new recruits and the parliamentarians that must agree on the laws of mobilization, the task of physically conscripting civilians falls to the most-maligned state institutions in Ukraine: local enlistment offices.

These facilities, which fall under the purview of the Armed Forces, itself under the authority of the Defense Ministry, were inundated with young Ukrainians eager to fight in the first days of the full-scale invasion. Those days are long gone.

The job of taking civilians to war is unenviable on its own, but their public image across the country is made worse by a reputation for corruption and methods that are often brash, and sometimes even violent.

In August 2023, Zelensky personally dismissed all of the regional enlistment office heads, a response to the nation’s contempt for the institution after many cases of abuse and corruption, including that of the Odesa regional head, who had bought property worth millions of dollars in Spain during the war.

On the ground, the move seemed to do little to change the culture or practices of the enlistment officers.

In scenes reminiscent of the forced mobilization of young men by Russian proxy forces in the occupied territories, videos regularly emerge on social media of Ukrainian men being packed into minibuses by armed, uniformed enlistment officers.

Many men eligible for the draft subscribe to local Telegram channels that warn residents of where summons notices are being handed out. According to one local enlistment officer in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, over 21,000 locals were subscribed to such a channel in the city as of July 2023, roughly equivalent to the number of those who had dodged the draft