Ukraine conflict
02-01-2024, 08:02 PM
#2131
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Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 197
If predictive powers mean anything, you can't do better than John Mershimer's address in 2015 to see where this is going.
"..The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked." Mershimer, University of Chicago 2015
I'm no geopolitical strategist. My country, right or wrong. But this has been a disaster for the US, for NATO, and most epecially, Ukraine.
When the map isn't the territory, the problem is you.
"..The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked." Mershimer, University of Chicago 2015
I'm no geopolitical strategist. My country, right or wrong. But this has been a disaster for the US, for NATO, and most epecially, Ukraine.
When the map isn't the territory, the problem is you.
You imply that the West bears responsibility for this conflict by walking Ukraine down the “primrose path”. Sorry, no. Russia bears 100% of the responsibility for the havoc it has wreaked across the country. Ukraine, like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, and other former Soviet block nations (who have been some of the best contributors to NATO per capita btw) decided they’d had enough of Russian influence & their fate was better off if they aligned with NATO. A wise decision. Does a sovereign nation not get to make this decision on its own? Detractors & Russian propagandists imply that the West is cavalierly playing chess with Ukraine as a pawn, but it is Russia playing chess master here, not the West. They want to hold on to their pawn, but the pawn has decided of its own free will that it doesn’t like the game anymore. If you think that’s the US or NATO’s fault, you’re either blind, a fool, or too wrapped up in American team sport politics to think clearly about the topic. All of those traits are like a wet dream come true for the Russians.
02-01-2024, 09:02 PM
#2132
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Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Cl65 left
Posts: 175
[QUOTE=Lowslung;3762587]What do you think is better for Ukraine, fighting off a Russian invasion (and yes, possibly losing), or living under Putin’s thumb? It certainly seems that, given the choice, Ukrainians would rather die for their country than be occupied by Russia. When you say this has been a disaster for the Ukrainians, you are correct. Getting invaded by a hostile nation usually is. The disaster becomes exponentially worse if the invaders are allowed to win.
You imply that the West bears responsibility for this conflict by walking Ukraine down the “primrose path”. Sorry, no. Russia bears 100% of the responsibility for the havoc it has wreaked across the country. Ukraine, like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, and other former Soviet block nations (who have been some of the best contributors to NATO per capita btw) decided they’d had enough of Russian influence & their fate was better off if they aligned with NATO. A wise decision. Does a sovereign nation not get to make this decision on its own? Detractors & Russian propagandists imply that the West is cavalierly playing chess with Ukraine as a pawn, but it is Russia playing chess master here, not the West. They want to hold on to their pawn, but the pawn has decided of its own free will that it doesn’t like the game anymore. If you think that’s the US or NATO’s fault, you’re either blind, a fool, or too wrapped up in American team sport politics to think clearly about the topic. All of those traits are like a wet dream come true for the Russians.[/QUOTE
All good points. But… have to make decisions based on reality. Russia moved again and nobody was ready. Obviously all efforts haven’t stopped the weak Russians. Shovels, and washing machine parts seem to be working for the Russians.
You imply that the West bears responsibility for this conflict by walking Ukraine down the “primrose path”. Sorry, no. Russia bears 100% of the responsibility for the havoc it has wreaked across the country. Ukraine, like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, and other former Soviet block nations (who have been some of the best contributors to NATO per capita btw) decided they’d had enough of Russian influence & their fate was better off if they aligned with NATO. A wise decision. Does a sovereign nation not get to make this decision on its own? Detractors & Russian propagandists imply that the West is cavalierly playing chess with Ukraine as a pawn, but it is Russia playing chess master here, not the West. They want to hold on to their pawn, but the pawn has decided of its own free will that it doesn’t like the game anymore. If you think that’s the US or NATO’s fault, you’re either blind, a fool, or too wrapped up in American team sport politics to think clearly about the topic. All of those traits are like a wet dream come true for the Russians.[/QUOTE
All good points. But… have to make decisions based on reality. Russia moved again and nobody was ready. Obviously all efforts haven’t stopped the weak Russians. Shovels, and washing machine parts seem to be working for the Russians.
02-01-2024, 10:39 PM
#2133
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Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,063
Most of the volunteers are dead by now, hence the new legislation.
Might want to at least look over the footnotes
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...zation%20rules.
The reforms are seen as vital because Kyiv needs to replenish its battlefield manpower. As the war nears the two-year mark, there are no longer queues of Ukrainian men at draft offices volunteering to join the fight.A key provision in the legislation is a lowering to 25 from 27 the minimum age for the draft.The new bill maintains key provisions of the initial draft, including the introduction of electronic call-ups and harsh punishments for people who flout mobilization rules.It saves provisions from the earlier version to apply to Ukrainians living abroad, as citizens applying for passports would have to present their military registration documents.The updated draft keeps a provision on serving mobilisation notices electronically into a conscript's "personal profile" which citizens are obliged to register.Any attempt to avoid the draft will trigger potential measures by the courts, on request from military recruitment offices, including freezing of bank accounts and assets, restrictions on travel and on use of a vehicle.Mobilisation terms are to be limited to 36 months and there will be exemptions for potential conscripts in higher education or specialised fields.Under a new provision, certain individuals convicted of crimes will be allowed to serve in the military.Ukraine introduced martial law when Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Military-age men can only leave the country if they have special dispensation.
02-01-2024, 11:52 PM
#2134
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Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 197
Ukrainians are not given the choice, they are drafted (often off the street, without any regard to their rights) and sent into the meat grinder.
Most of the volunteers are dead by now, hence the new legislation.
Might want to at least look over the footnotes
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-govt-submits-amended-mobilisation-bill-parliament-2024-01-30/#:~:text=A%20key%20provision%20in%20the,people%20w ho%20flout%20mobilization%20rules.
Most of the volunteers are dead by now, hence the new legislation.
Might want to at least look over the footnotes
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-govt-submits-amended-mobilisation-bill-parliament-2024-01-30/#:~:text=A%20key%20provision%20in%20the,people%20w ho%20flout%20mobilization%20rules.
02-02-2024, 06:01 AM
#2135
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Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,063
Any country in the world will do the same in wartime, and especially when facing potential annihilation. The United States, the beacon of freedom and democracy in the world, drafted and prosecuted those attempting to shirk their duty for many years. It will do so again if threatened. Hell, we have done some very undemocratic things in wartime to include internment of US citizens based on Japanese background. Not saying any of it is right, but that's what happens in no**** hot wars & is not necessarily an indictment of Ukrainian democracy.
Also, from wiki
It is now known that, during the Vietnam era, approximately 570,000 young men were classified as draft offenders,[3] and approximately 210,000 were formally accused of draft violations;[11][3] however, only 8,750 were convicted and only 3,250 were jailed.[3]
02-02-2024, 08:49 AM
#2137
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Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,063
howdy
On the surface, the number of court cases is relatively small. DW.com had an article about that last year.
Main reason for that, however, is that once "drafted" (i.e. kidnapped off the street), your options to refuse service exist mostly in theory.
Here's an example of an attempt to detain and draft a lawyer, that came over to represent a wrongfully drafted client (original FB post in Ukrainian)
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/8omyoRm77DKXZbqL
Furthermore, while the new legislation provides draft protection for the law enforcement and prosecutors, it does not do the same for the defense lawyers
https:/www.facebook.com/share/p/eowhVHe4iFDAHbD5
Meanwhile, removal of Zaluzhnyi and all of the loyal upper command is expected later on today.
On the surface, the number of court cases is relatively small. DW.com had an article about that last year.
Main reason for that, however, is that once "drafted" (i.e. kidnapped off the street), your options to refuse service exist mostly in theory.
Here's an example of an attempt to detain and draft a lawyer, that came over to represent a wrongfully drafted client (original FB post in Ukrainian)
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/8omyoRm77DKXZbqL
Furthermore, while the new legislation provides draft protection for the law enforcement and prosecutors, it does not do the same for the defense lawyers
https:/www.facebook.com/share/p/eowhVHe4iFDAHbD5
Meanwhile, removal of Zaluzhnyi and all of the loyal upper command is expected later on today.
02-02-2024, 09:29 AM
#2138
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,466
howdy
On the surface, the number of court cases is relatively small. DW.com had an article about that last year.
Main reason for that, however, is that once "drafted" (i.e. kidnapped off the street), your options to refuse service exist mostly in theory.
Here's an example of an attempt to detain and draft a lawyer, that came over to represent a wrongfully drafted client (original FB post in Ukrainian)
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/8omyoRm77DKXZbqL
Furthermore, while the new legislation provides draft protection for the law enforcement and prosecutors, it does not do the same for the defense lawyers
https:/www.facebook.com/share/p/eowhVHe4iFDAHbD5
Meanwhile, removal of Zaluzhnyi and all of the loyal upper command is expected later on today.
On the surface, the number of court cases is relatively small. DW.com had an article about that last year.
Main reason for that, however, is that once "drafted" (i.e. kidnapped off the street), your options to refuse service exist mostly in theory.
Here's an example of an attempt to detain and draft a lawyer, that came over to represent a wrongfully drafted client (original FB post in Ukrainian)
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/8omyoRm77DKXZbqL
Furthermore, while the new legislation provides draft protection for the law enforcement and prosecutors, it does not do the same for the defense lawyers
https:/www.facebook.com/share/p/eowhVHe4iFDAHbD5
Meanwhile, removal of Zaluzhnyi and all of the loyal upper command is expected later on today.
02-02-2024, 10:52 AM
#2139
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Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,063
02-02-2024, 11:37 AM
#2140
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Joined APC: Nov 2020
Position: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Posts: 2,323
What do you think is better for Ukraine, fighting off a Russian invasion (and yes, possibly losing), or living under Putin’s thumb? It certainly seems that, given the choice, Ukrainians would rather die for their country than be occupied by Russia. When you say this has been a disaster for the Ukrainians, you are correct. Getting invaded by a hostile nation usually is. The disaster becomes exponentially worse if the invaders are allowed to win.
You imply that the West bears responsibility for this conflict by walking Ukraine down the “primrose path”. Sorry, no. Russia bears 100% of the responsibility for the havoc it has wreaked across the country. Ukraine, like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, and other former Soviet block nations (who have been some of the best contributors to NATO per capita btw) decided they’d had enough of Russian influence & their fate was better off if they aligned with NATO. A wise decision. Does a sovereign nation not get to make this decision on its own? Detractors & Russian propagandists imply that the West is cavalierly playing chess with Ukraine as a pawn, but it is Russia playing chess master here, not the West. They want to hold on to their pawn, but the pawn has decided of its own free will that it doesn’t like the game anymore. If you think that’s the US or NATO’s fault, you’re either blind, a fool, or too wrapped up in American team sport politics to think clearly about the topic. All of those traits are like a wet dream come true for the Russians.
You imply that the West bears responsibility for this conflict by walking Ukraine down the “primrose path”. Sorry, no. Russia bears 100% of the responsibility for the havoc it has wreaked across the country. Ukraine, like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, and other former Soviet block nations (who have been some of the best contributors to NATO per capita btw) decided they’d had enough of Russian influence & their fate was better off if they aligned with NATO. A wise decision. Does a sovereign nation not get to make this decision on its own? Detractors & Russian propagandists imply that the West is cavalierly playing chess with Ukraine as a pawn, but it is Russia playing chess master here, not the West. They want to hold on to their pawn, but the pawn has decided of its own free will that it doesn’t like the game anymore. If you think that’s the US or NATO’s fault, you’re either blind, a fool, or too wrapped up in American team sport politics to think clearly about the topic. All of those traits are like a wet dream come true for the Russians.
I referenced a talk given by an academic back in 2016 predicting that given the then-current course Ukraine was on meant it was going to "get wrecked". That turned out to be spot on.
It's pretty rare to see an academic make such specific preditions bear out so perfectly. He might be onto something with his "structural realist" school of international relations.
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