Ukraine conflict
01-19-2023, 01:58 PM
#181
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Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Capt
Posts: 3,215
Poland would risk fracturing their security relationship with DE, and that could have long-term consequences and disrupt NATO cohesion. I don't think we'll see anyone break the trust of an ally to send advanced weapons to UR.
Heard nothing recently. Two problems:
1. Similar to patriot but much worse, the spool up time to learn to maintain and operate any new-to-you 4th gen fighter would be very long. Best solution would be give them hardware they already operate, ie Mig 29 and maybe some SUs.
2. Direct provocation. The US, and many other allies, are reluctant to give UR hardware that could possibly or likely be used against RU territory. Poland has requested backfill (reasonably) with US F-16's in order to turn over their Migs to UR. IMO that would be sensible, not too provocative since it would not involve any ex-US fighters engaged against RU. Also fringe benefit to help modernize PL's forces, and bring them into tighter operational alignment with NATO.
Heard nothing recently. Two problems:
1. Similar to patriot but much worse, the spool up time to learn to maintain and operate any new-to-you 4th gen fighter would be very long. Best solution would be give them hardware they already operate, ie Mig 29 and maybe some SUs.
2. Direct provocation. The US, and many other allies, are reluctant to give UR hardware that could possibly or likely be used against RU territory. Poland has requested backfill (reasonably) with US F-16's in order to turn over their Migs to UR. IMO that would be sensible, not too provocative since it would not involve any ex-US fighters engaged against RU. Also fringe benefit to help modernize PL's forces, and bring them into tighter operational alignment with NATO.
01-19-2023, 02:47 PM
#182
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,410
1) They can do without those tanks, perhaps for a few years until they can be replaced.
2) They can do without future major weapons acquisitions from DE for the mid-term.
If that's the case, they can "do the right thing".
01-19-2023, 04:17 PM
#183
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,254
01-19-2023, 05:49 PM
#185
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 805
So true. (you "get it")
Ancillary:
While it is considered by many to ancient history, we forget that in 1945 there were those who:
1.wanted to make Germany a pastoral country...no re-industrialization.
2. wipe the name Prussia from the map.
3. never...ever...allow Germany to have it's own military again.
Yes, it has now been two generations, but those sentiments didn't dissolve overnight.
Russia has tried, for many years, to negotiate building a road from Belarus to it's Kaliningrad Oblast across either Poland or Lithuania. They got nowhere in their attempts.
At least some have a memory and could not be convinced that the bear had become a vegetarian.
Ancillary:
While it is considered by many to ancient history, we forget that in 1945 there were those who:
1.wanted to make Germany a pastoral country...no re-industrialization.
2. wipe the name Prussia from the map.
3. never...ever...allow Germany to have it's own military again.
Yes, it has now been two generations, but those sentiments didn't dissolve overnight.
Russia has tried, for many years, to negotiate building a road from Belarus to it's Kaliningrad Oblast across either Poland or Lithuania. They got nowhere in their attempts.
At least some have a memory and could not be convinced that the bear had become a vegetarian.
01-20-2023, 06:52 AM
#186
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Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Cl65 left
Posts: 175
01-20-2023, 07:24 AM
#187
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,254
Nor from Russia’s perspective, it would appear:
https://www.politico.eu/article/comm...-invasion-end/
https://www.politico.eu/article/comm...-invasion-end/
01-20-2023, 07:47 AM
#188
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,254
Well, Zelensky is saying that reconstruction costs will run $950 Billion. Certainly our NATO Allie’s who have repeatedly reneged on their promises to put 2% of their own GDP into their own defense aren’t going to carry most of that burden. But then we paid how much for 20 years in Afghanistan? $2.3 Trillion? By that standard, if we can get out of the Ukraine War for only a couple of trillion with no US lives lost, it would be a real deal.
01-20-2023, 11:20 AM
#189
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,466
Well, Zelensky is saying that reconstruction costs will run $950 Billion. Certainly our NATO Allie’s who have repeatedly reneged on their promises to put 2% of their own GDP into their own defense aren’t going to carry most of that burden. But then we paid how much for 20 years in Afghanistan? $2.3 Trillion? By that standard, if we can get out of the Ukraine War for only a couple of trillion with no US lives lost, it would be a real deal.
I’m still not 100% in what your angle is. I think I need you to spell it out.
I’m going to ask you a straight question and would like a straight answer since you wouldn’t do it a month ago.
Is Ukraine a democratic country fighting against tyranny?
For me that has a value all its own. What are your thoughts?
01-20-2023, 12:52 PM
#190
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,254
Don’t be myopic. What will that money gain?
I’m still not 100% in what your angle is. I think I need you to spell it out.
I’m going to ask you a straight question and would like a straight answer since you wouldn’t do it a month ago.
Is Ukraine a democratic country fighting against tyranny?
For me that has a value all its own. What are your thoughts?
I’m still not 100% in what your angle is. I think I need you to spell it out.
I’m going to ask you a straight question and would like a straight answer since you wouldn’t do it a month ago.
Is Ukraine a democratic country fighting against tyranny?
For me that has a value all its own. What are your thoughts?
I’m tired of defending Europe. Let the Europeans handle it.
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