Ukraine conflict
11-16-2023, 08:04 AM
#1821
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,406
lol. Told y'll this was going to be the result back in 2022 and was called a Russian agent. How many Ukrainians are dead now? At least we helped some defense CEO buy his 17th vacation home while most young Americans will never be able to buy one house to live in anymore.
Happy to help, although our self-interest mission was largely accomplished within the first year when RU stalled and lost catastrophic combat resources. Every day this drags on weakens RU militarily, economically, and politically and degrades Vlad's prospects. That is to our collective benefit, and the dollar cost is relatively cheap.
I might not approve of a proxy war, such as a civil war where we encourage and enable one side, but this is not that. It's their choice. They can always vote out Zelinsky and install a russian puppet if that's what they want.
I was surprised RU did it in the first place, because it would be costly on may levels. I've also been surprised at the resilience and tenacity of UA. Not really surprised at their military competence, since we've been training them since 2014. Obviously they sat up straight and paid attention.
11-16-2023, 09:32 AM
#1822
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Their choice (Ukrainians). If they want to fight and die for their country, well we've done the same a couple times. If Russians want to die for their mob boss, well their choice too, and that means fewer of them for whatever the next imperial adventure might be.
Happy to help, although our self-interest mission was largely accomplished within the first year when RU stalled and lost catastrophic combat resources. Every day this drags on weakens RU militarily, economically, and politically and degrades Vlad's prospects. That is to our collective benefit, and the dollar cost is relatively cheap.
I might not approve of a proxy war, such as a civil war where we encourage and enable one side, but this is not that. It's their choice. They can always vote out Zelinsky and install a russian puppet if that's what they want.
I was surprised RU did it in the first place, because it would be costly on may levels. I've also been surprised at the resilience and tenacity of UA. Not really surprised at their military competence, since we've been training them since 2014. Obviously they sat up straight and paid attention.
Happy to help, although our self-interest mission was largely accomplished within the first year when RU stalled and lost catastrophic combat resources. Every day this drags on weakens RU militarily, economically, and politically and degrades Vlad's prospects. That is to our collective benefit, and the dollar cost is relatively cheap.
I might not approve of a proxy war, such as a civil war where we encourage and enable one side, but this is not that. It's their choice. They can always vote out Zelinsky and install a russian puppet if that's what they want.
I was surprised RU did it in the first place, because it would be costly on may levels. I've also been surprised at the resilience and tenacity of UA. Not really surprised at their military competence, since we've been training them since 2014. Obviously they sat up straight and paid attention.
1. It isn't "their choice" when it's a conscript army. (Both sides)
2. They can't vote if there is no meaningful election. (Again, both sides)
3. The rest of NATO - at least the big economies like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain STILL aren't appropriately funding their own military - far less that of Ukraine.
11-16-2023, 09:53 AM
#1823
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,406
I'm not sure that we can claim perfect here in the US
Although it's worth point out that we have a totally separate motive to remain tight with NATO/EU: The obvious looming neer-peer conflict. We're significantly more likely to need their support, than the EU will need ours, in the mid-term.
11-16-2023, 11:14 AM
#1824
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat
Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.
https://images.wsj.net/im-887023?width=1280&height=853 Russian President Vladimir Putin at a National Unity Day ceremony in Moscow, Nov. 4. Almost two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin has reason to believe time is on his side. PHOTO: MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/ASSOCIATED PRESS By Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. WeissNov. 16, 2023 at 10:00 am ET
Excerpts:
As Russian President Vladimir Putin looks toward the second anniversary of his all-out assault on Ukraine, his self-confidence is hard to miss. A much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive has not achieved the breakthrough that would give Kyiv a strong hand to negotiate. Tumult in the Middle East dominates the headlines, and bipartisan support for Ukraine in the U.S. has been upended by polarization and dysfunction in Congress, not to mention the pro-Putin leanings of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump.
Putin has reason to believe that time is on his side. At the front line, there are no indications that Russia is losing what has become a war of attrition. The Russian economy has been buffeted, but it is not in tatters. Putin’s hold on power was, paradoxically, strengthened following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in June. Popular support for the war remains solid, and elite backing for Putin has not fractured.
Western officials’ promises of reinvigorating their own defense industries have collided with bureaucratic and supply-chain bottlenecks. Meanwhile, sanctions and export controls have impeded Putin’s war effort far less than expected. Russian defense factories are ramping up their output, and Soviet legacy factories are outperforming Western factories when it comes to much-needed items like artillery shells.
The technocrats responsible for running the Russian economy have proven themselves to be resilient, adaptable, and resourceful. Elevated oil prices, driven in part by close cooperation with Saudi Arabia, are refilling state coffers. Ukraine, by contrast, depends heavily on infusions of Western cash.
Putin can also look at his foreign-policy record with satisfaction. His investments in key relationships have paid off. China and India have provided an important backstop for the Russian economy by ramping up imports of Russian oil and other commodities. Instead of fretting about lost markets in Western Europe or Beijing’s reluctance to flout U.S. and EU sanctions, Putin has decided that it’s more advantageous in the short term simply to become China’s junior partner in the economic realm. Goods from China account for nearly 50% of Russian imports, and Russia’s top energy companies are now hooked on selling to China.
Even neighboring countries that have every reason to fear Putin’s aggressive tactics, such as Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, have made fat profits by serving as enablers of sanctions circumvention and as transshipment points for the goods that Russia used to import directly.
Despite Putin’s indictment by the International Criminal Court and abundant evidence of Russian state-sponsored war crimes in Ukraine, he is still embraced in various parts of the so-called “global South.” The Ukraine war holds little salience for many countries who bristle at what they perceive as U.S. and European double standards or a lack of engagement on issues that concern them.
None of this should come as a surprise. More than six months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin signed off on a new National Security Strategy for Russia. The main thrust of that document was to prepare the country for a long-term confrontation with the West. Today Putin can tell the nation that his strategy is working.
Putin does not feel any pressure to end the war or worry about his ability to sustain it more or less indefinitely. As winter approaches, the Russian army has mounted a limited ground offensive of its own and surely will expand missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, power plants, industrial sites and other critical infrastructure. At a minimum, Putin expects that U.S. and European support for Ukraine will dissipate, that Ukrainians will tire of the endless terror and destruction inflicted on them, and that a combination of the two will enable him to dictate the terms for a deal to end the war and claim victory. From his perspective, the ideal person to put such a deal together is Donald Trump, if he returns to the White House in January 2025.
The U.S. and its allies need to be clear about the long-term nature of this undertaking. The war’s end, whenever that happens, is unlikely to quell the confrontation between Russia and the rest of Europe. Ukrainians and their friends rightfully want to see the rise of a prosperous, independent Ukraine that is secure and fully integrated into the political and economic life of the continent. Putin and his successors would see that as Russia’s ultimate defeat. They will do everything in their power to prevent it.
Eugene Rumer, a former national intelligence officer for Russia at the National Intelligence Council, is director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Andrew S. Weiss, who worked on Russian affairs in both the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations, is Carnegie’s vice president for studies.
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/its...efeat-f6d0b8de
11-16-2023, 11:34 AM
#1825
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Ukraine starts drafting reservists aged 18-60 after president's order
ReutersFebruary 23, 202212:26 AM PSTUpdated 2 years ago
https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/PS52553RSBKKREQ7MFCN7QBD2E.jpgUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meets with leaders of parliament fractions and groups in Kyiv, Ukraine February 22, 2022. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS Acquire Licensing Rights
KYIV, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Ukraine on Wednesday has started conscripting reservists aged 18-60 following a decree by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the armed forces said in a statement.
The maximum service period is one year.
Zelenskiy on Tuesday said he was introducing the conscription of reservists but ruled out a general mobilisation after Russia announced it was moving troops into eastern Ukraine
I wasn't there but the consensus amonsgt those who pay attention to such things is that recent UA elections have been pretty meanignful, but not perfect. The fact that an outsider is even president attests to that.
BY ILLIA NOVIKOV AND HANNA ARHIROVA
Updated 10:31 AM PST, November 7, 2023
ShareKYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy late Monday ruled out holding a presidential vote in the spring and urged his countrymen to avoid political divides, saying they must concentrate all resources on fighting Russia.
Zelenskyy’s comments in a video address follow increasing discussions about the possibility of a presidential election in March. Zelenskyy, who was elected for a five-year term in March 2019, had previously avoided definitive statements on the question. His associates had said he was pondering various possibilities.
“Now, in wartime, when there are so many challenges, it is absolutely irresponsible to throw the topic of elections into society in a lighthearted and playful way,” Zelenskyy said, adding that ”the waves of any politically divisive things must stop.”
Updated 10:31 AM PST, November 7, 2023
ShareKYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy late Monday ruled out holding a presidential vote in the spring and urged his countrymen to avoid political divides, saying they must concentrate all resources on fighting Russia.
Zelenskyy’s comments in a video address follow increasing discussions about the possibility of a presidential election in March. Zelenskyy, who was elected for a five-year term in March 2019, had previously avoided definitive statements on the question. His associates had said he was pondering various possibilities.
“Now, in wartime, when there are so many challenges, it is absolutely irresponsible to throw the topic of elections into society in a lighthearted and playful way,” Zelenskyy said, adding that ”the waves of any politically divisive things must stop.”
I agree, and agreed with previous measures to withdraw some forces from NATO. But that has nothing to do with UA. It should be addressed, but now is not the right time.
Our 'Allie's' have been feckless since before the breakup of the USSR and they STILL haven't improved. Weak Allie's who are unwilling (because with their economies they certainly aren't unable) to even contribute their fair share toward THEIR OWN defense are a liability, not an asset. This has now been the case for over a third of a century and their reticence persists even after their inability to perform militarily has been rubbed in their noses in Bosnia, Kosovo, after Crimea, and now - as we approach two full years of war in the Ukraine. Not to mention NATO allies such as Hungary, Turkey, and Lithuania sort of carrying water for Russia.
If now isn't the right time, when IS the right time?
Last edited by Excargodog; 11-16-2023 at 12:10 PM.
11-17-2023, 04:54 PM
#1826
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
One problem with sanctions..
... is that when you interfere with the market, you are interfering with something that BOTH SIDES viewed as MUTUALLY beneficial.
As home to big manufacturers like Volkswagen Group’s Škoda and Hyundai Motor’s Czech subsidiary, it is one of Europe’s leading automotive production and manufacturing hubs Michal Cizek/AFP via Getty Images
An excerpt:
https://www.politico.eu/article/czec...ns-nlmk-putin/
Czechs push for longer exemption from Russia steel sanctions
Russian steel maker NLMK is a key supplier to the Czech auto industry, which accounts for around 10 percent of the country’s GDP.As home to big manufacturers like Volkswagen Group’s Škoda and Hyundai Motor’s Czech subsidiary, it is one of Europe’s leading automotive production and manufacturing hubs Michal Cizek/AFP via Getty Images
BY BARBARA MOENS AND WILHELMINE PREUSSEN
NOVEMBER 17, 2023 1:26 PM CET
3 MINUTES READ
An excerpt:
The Czech Republic is asking for a longer exemption period for imports from Russian steel company Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK) during Friday’s meeting of EU ambassadors to discuss the next round of sanctions against Moscow, three EU diplomats told POLITICO.
The automotive sector is a linchpin for the Czech Republic’s economy, accounting for about 10 percent of national GDP — one of the highest totals in the world. As home to big manufacturers like Volkswagen Group’s Škoda and Hyundai Motor’s Czech subsidiary, it is one of Europe’s leading automotive production and manufacturing hubs.
Manufacturers need steel, which makes up a large proportion of the body and many other components of a car. And NLMK is a crucial supplier: It produces nearly all of its flat and long steel products in Russia, but nearly a quarter of its rolling operations are sited in Europe, closer to its industry customers.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Brussels has imposed 11 sanctions packages against Moscow — covering everything from energy to banking — in a bid to empty President Vladimir Putin’s war chest. But throughout the sanctions discussion, various EU countries have sought transition periods to win time to find alternatives to Russian imports elsewhere.
The Czech Republic is now asking to prolong one of those transition periods to be able to continue using steel from NLMK, one of the four largest steel companies in Russia. Targeting its semi-finished steel imports is politically sensitive as the company continues to operate in Europe via subsidiaries in Belgium, France and Italy, with thousands of job losses on the line.
The Czechs, together with other countries, including Italy and Belgium, had already gotten a transition period until the end of 2024 to continue using steel from NLMK, especially as rising energy prices were making it harder at the time for European companies to find alternatives to cheap Russian semi-finished steel products.
The Czech Republic is now asking to prolong that transition period to 2028, arguing that “there are major difficulties in getting the product from new suppliers/alternative sources,” one of the diplomats said. Another diplomat stressed that the 2028 date is likely to be an opening move with the hopes of simply getting any prolongation at all. The diplomats were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
It is still unclear how much support the Czechs have for their demand from other countries such as Italy and Belgium. In Belgium, there is a push from the French-speaking part of the country to back the demand for a prolongation, as the sanctions are set to have repercussions in that part of the country. The Belgium-based NLMK Belgium is owned 49 percent by Wallonie Entreprendre, a Belgian investment fund owned by the Walloon region.
The automotive sector is a linchpin for the Czech Republic’s economy, accounting for about 10 percent of national GDP — one of the highest totals in the world. As home to big manufacturers like Volkswagen Group’s Škoda and Hyundai Motor’s Czech subsidiary, it is one of Europe’s leading automotive production and manufacturing hubs.
Manufacturers need steel, which makes up a large proportion of the body and many other components of a car. And NLMK is a crucial supplier: It produces nearly all of its flat and long steel products in Russia, but nearly a quarter of its rolling operations are sited in Europe, closer to its industry customers.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Brussels has imposed 11 sanctions packages against Moscow — covering everything from energy to banking — in a bid to empty President Vladimir Putin’s war chest. But throughout the sanctions discussion, various EU countries have sought transition periods to win time to find alternatives to Russian imports elsewhere.
The Czech Republic is now asking to prolong one of those transition periods to be able to continue using steel from NLMK, one of the four largest steel companies in Russia. Targeting its semi-finished steel imports is politically sensitive as the company continues to operate in Europe via subsidiaries in Belgium, France and Italy, with thousands of job losses on the line.
The Czechs, together with other countries, including Italy and Belgium, had already gotten a transition period until the end of 2024 to continue using steel from NLMK, especially as rising energy prices were making it harder at the time for European companies to find alternatives to cheap Russian semi-finished steel products.
The Czech Republic is now asking to prolong that transition period to 2028, arguing that “there are major difficulties in getting the product from new suppliers/alternative sources,” one of the diplomats said. Another diplomat stressed that the 2028 date is likely to be an opening move with the hopes of simply getting any prolongation at all. The diplomats were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
It is still unclear how much support the Czechs have for their demand from other countries such as Italy and Belgium. In Belgium, there is a push from the French-speaking part of the country to back the demand for a prolongation, as the sanctions are set to have repercussions in that part of the country. The Belgium-based NLMK Belgium is owned 49 percent by Wallonie Entreprendre, a Belgian investment fund owned by the Walloon region.
https://www.politico.eu/article/czec...ns-nlmk-putin/
11-18-2023, 08:43 AM
#1827
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Other voices heard from and worth the read, even if you disagree with them:
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sure-doesnt-look-like-democracy-anymore-opinion-1844799
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/redefining-success-ukraine
an excerpt:
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-sure-doesnt-look-like-democracy-anymore-opinion-1844799
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/redefining-success-ukraine
an excerpt:
The current situation on the battlefield yields a glass-half-full, glass-half-empty picture. On one side of the ledger, Ukraine has demonstrated stunning resolve and skill, not only denying Russia’s attempt to subjugate it but also taking back a considerable portion of the territory seized by Russia last year. On the other side of the ledger are the enormous human and economic costs of the war and the reality that Russia has succeeded, at least for now, in using force to seize a sizable piece of Ukraine’s territory. Despite Ukraine’s much-heralded counteroffensive, Russia has actually gained more territory over the course of 2023 than Ukraine has. Overall, neither side has made significant advances. Ukrainian and Russian forces have fought to an effective standstill: a stalemate has set in.
What, then, is to be done? One option for the West is to do more of the same, continuing to provide an enormous amount of weaponry to Ukraine in the hope that doing so will enable its forces to eventually defeat Russia’s. The problem is that Ukraine’s military shows no signs of being able to break through Russia’s formidable defenses, no matter how long and hard it fights. Defense tends to have the advantage over offense, and Russian forces are dug in behind miles of mine fields, trenches, traps, and fortifications. The West can send more tanks, long-range missiles, and eventually F-16 fighter jets. But there is no silver bullet capable of turning the tide on the battlefield. As Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top general, recently admitted, “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” We are where we are on the battlefield in Ukraine, and where we are looks at best like a costly deadlock.
Time will not be on Ukraine’s side if a high-intensity war drags on indefinitely. Russia’s economy and its defense industrial base are on a war footing. Moscow is also importing arms from North Korea and Iran and has access to consumer items that contain technology that it can repurpose for military uses. Should Russia need to reinforce its military presence in Ukraine, it has a large pool of manpower on which to draw. Russia has also found new markets for its energy, while sanctions have had only a modest effect on the Russian economy. Putin appears politically secure and in control of the levers of power, from the military and security services to the media and public narrative.
What, then, is to be done? One option for the West is to do more of the same, continuing to provide an enormous amount of weaponry to Ukraine in the hope that doing so will enable its forces to eventually defeat Russia’s. The problem is that Ukraine’s military shows no signs of being able to break through Russia’s formidable defenses, no matter how long and hard it fights. Defense tends to have the advantage over offense, and Russian forces are dug in behind miles of mine fields, trenches, traps, and fortifications. The West can send more tanks, long-range missiles, and eventually F-16 fighter jets. But there is no silver bullet capable of turning the tide on the battlefield. As Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top general, recently admitted, “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” We are where we are on the battlefield in Ukraine, and where we are looks at best like a costly deadlock.
Time will not be on Ukraine’s side if a high-intensity war drags on indefinitely. Russia’s economy and its defense industrial base are on a war footing. Moscow is also importing arms from North Korea and Iran and has access to consumer items that contain technology that it can repurpose for military uses. Should Russia need to reinforce its military presence in Ukraine, it has a large pool of manpower on which to draw. Russia has also found new markets for its energy, while sanctions have had only a modest effect on the Russian economy. Putin appears politically secure and in control of the levers of power, from the military and security services to the media and public narrative.
11-18-2023, 03:34 PM
#1828
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2023
Posts: 197
"Moscow is also importing arms from North Korea and Iran and has access to consumer items that contain technology that it can repurpose for military uses."
The author believes this is in the positive column for Russia? Says a lot right there.
The author believes this is in the positive column for Russia? Says a lot right there.
11-18-2023, 04:45 PM
#1829
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
Russia running low on ammunition? Importing arms that they had either shipped to North Korea and Iran or arms they had made.
11-18-2023, 05:11 PM
#1830
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Europe can’t keep its promise to Ukraine, defense chief admits
The bloc has sent Kyiv only 300K shells and won’t meet March deadline to supply 1 million.https://www.politico.eu/cdn-cgi/image/width=1160,height=773,quality=80,onerror=redirect, format=auto/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/15/GettyImages-1252101062-scaled.jpghttps://www.politico.eu/article/arms...-agency-chief/
BRUSSELS — The EU will deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine — but not by the March deadline leaders had agreed, the CEO of the European Defence Agency Jiří Šedivý told POLITICO.
The agency has been at the heart of efforts to transform the bloc's military industry by matching contractors with capitals in massive joint ammunition deals targeted at boosting local production and supplying arms to Ukraine.
The million shell target was decided by EU leaders last March to support Kyiv in its fight against invading Russian forces, but there were deep divisions over the success of the policy during Tuesday's meeting of defense ministers in Brussels
Some, like Germany Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, said the target wouldn't be reached and questioned the sense of setting it in the first place, while others, like Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, said the bloc was capable of producing enough ammunition — as long as governments sign contracts with arms-makers.i[size=33px]The EDA chief leans toward a more optimistic assessment.[/size]
"The target of 1 million will be achieved — maybe even beyond that — but indeed, the timeline is too ambitious," Šedivý said in an interview just hours after meeting defense ministers in his role as the chief of the bloc's technical agency.
So far, EU countries have dispatched around 300,000 shells to Ukraine, with the EDA running a second track to jointly procure ammo to refill national stocks as well as provide further support to Ukraine.
In October, the agency said seven member countries agreed to place orders for critical 155 millimeter ammunition under a fast-track joint procurement scheme.
While the EDA won't disclose the total volume of those contracts, Šedivý said that, coupled with national orders from larger countries like Germany, France and Sweden, it would add up to "lower 100,000s of ammunition" which would still put the bloc well beneath the 1 million mark.
The agency has been at the heart of efforts to transform the bloc's military industry by matching contractors with capitals in massive joint ammunition deals targeted at boosting local production and supplying arms to Ukraine.
The million shell target was decided by EU leaders last March to support Kyiv in its fight against invading Russian forces, but there were deep divisions over the success of the policy during Tuesday's meeting of defense ministers in Brussels
Some, like Germany Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, said the target wouldn't be reached and questioned the sense of setting it in the first place, while others, like Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, said the bloc was capable of producing enough ammunition — as long as governments sign contracts with arms-makers.i[size=33px]The EDA chief leans toward a more optimistic assessment.[/size]
"The target of 1 million will be achieved — maybe even beyond that — but indeed, the timeline is too ambitious," Šedivý said in an interview just hours after meeting defense ministers in his role as the chief of the bloc's technical agency.
So far, EU countries have dispatched around 300,000 shells to Ukraine, with the EDA running a second track to jointly procure ammo to refill national stocks as well as provide further support to Ukraine.
In October, the agency said seven member countries agreed to place orders for critical 155 millimeter ammunition under a fast-track joint procurement scheme.
While the EDA won't disclose the total volume of those contracts, Šedivý said that, coupled with national orders from larger countries like Germany, France and Sweden, it would add up to "lower 100,000s of ammunition" which would still put the bloc well beneath the 1 million mark.
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