Ukraine conflict
10-30-2023, 04:25 PM
#1781
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2016
Position: Cl65 left
Posts: 175
Hub’s got one goal, Cargo a different take, and Rick another. But Hub started the thread so there is that. I’ve ripped on all equally as I have my own opinion. But honestly I have to give Hub credit for his tenacity. He doesn’t back down. Cargo obviously doesn’t either!
10-30-2023, 08:13 PM
#1782
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,044
RU very clearly thinks it's entitled to dominion over Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. What's the point of empire if you don't subjugate anyone? Kaliningrad needs rescuing from Nato Nazis too. And they'll admit feeling entitled to Poland as well, after enough vodka. Their ultimate fantasy would of course be back to Berlin.
It would however require some very specific circumstances... basically an isolationist regime in the US, and weakness and disorder in the EU, so that RU could feel confident that NATO wouldn't put up a big fight.
But moot point now, RU is both spent, and has come to to some painful realizations about their own competencies. Maybe next century. But not Poland, I don't think RU has the stones for that.
10-31-2023, 12:51 AM
#1783
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 2,501
As an experienced military strategy/plans leader, I don't think it's far-fetched. Especially in light of the fact that he went into UA in the first place. History shows that guys like that are never satisfied once they've tasted conquest. And it's not just Vlad, he's a symptom as much as a cause.
RU very clearly thinks it's entitled to dominion over Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. What's the point of empire if you don't subjugate anyone? Kaliningrad needs rescuing from Nato Nazis too. And they'll admit feeling entitled to Poland as well, after enough vodka. Their ultimate fantasy would of course be back to Berlin.
It would however require some very specific circumstances... basically an isolationist regime in the US, and weakness and disorder in the EU, so that RU could feel confident that NATO wouldn't put up a big fight.
But moot point now, RU is both spent, and has come to to some painful realizations about their own competencies. Maybe next century. But not Poland, I don't think RU has the stones for that.
RU very clearly thinks it's entitled to dominion over Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. What's the point of empire if you don't subjugate anyone? Kaliningrad needs rescuing from Nato Nazis too. And they'll admit feeling entitled to Poland as well, after enough vodka. Their ultimate fantasy would of course be back to Berlin.
It would however require some very specific circumstances... basically an isolationist regime in the US, and weakness and disorder in the EU, so that RU could feel confident that NATO wouldn't put up a big fight.
But moot point now, RU is both spent, and has come to to some painful realizations about their own competencies. Maybe next century. But not Poland, I don't think RU has the stones for that.
10-31-2023, 07:56 AM
#1784
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
As an experienced military strategy/plans leader, I don't think it's far-fetched. Especially in light of the fact that he went into UA in the first place. History shows that guys like that are never satisfied once they've tasted conquest. And it's not just Vlad, he's a symptom as much as a cause.
RU very clearly thinks it's entitled to dominion over Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. What's the point of empire if you don't subjugate anyone? Kaliningrad needs rescuing from Nato Nazis too. And they'll admit feeling entitled to Poland as well, after enough vodka. Their ultimate fantasy would of course be back to Berlin.
It would however require some very specific circumstances... basically an isolationist regime in the US, and weakness and disorder in the EU, so that RU could feel confident that NATO wouldn't put up a big fight.
But moot point now, RU is both spent, and has come to to some painful realizations about their own competencies. Maybe next century. But not Poland, I don't think RU has the stones for that.
RU very clearly thinks it's entitled to dominion over Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. What's the point of empire if you don't subjugate anyone? Kaliningrad needs rescuing from Nato Nazis too. And they'll admit feeling entitled to Poland as well, after enough vodka. Their ultimate fantasy would of course be back to Berlin.
It would however require some very specific circumstances... basically an isolationist regime in the US, and weakness and disorder in the EU, so that RU could feel confident that NATO wouldn't put up a big fight.
But moot point now, RU is both spent, and has come to to some painful realizations about their own competencies. Maybe next century. But not Poland, I don't think RU has the stones for that.
It’s the old ‘how are you going to keep them down on the farm after they’ve seen Par-ee?’ story.
70% of these people are women and kids. It’s been over 600 days and they are building new lives and learning new languages in their current country. Ukraine had a declining and aging population BEFORE the war. Having established new lives in countries that haven’t been devastated by destruction of infrastructure and environment, how many of these people do you really expect to ever go home to actually live in Ukraine again? They were bailing out before the dam was destroyed and the infrastructure was destroyed and a third of the country became littered with unexploded ordnance. It’s far more likely their menfolk will join them than that the women and kids will move back.
And except at the margins, it’s now a stalemate and a war of attrition which favors the larger country. the best the Ukraine can hope for is a few gains on the margins. Recovery of Crimea is a pipe dream absent NATO putting boots on the ground to help them and those would have had to have been mostly US and Polish boots because there really isn’t much there there in the rest of NATO unless someone is ready to go nuclear, and nobody wants that. For dam sure, Turkey and Hungary aren’t going to help and are far more likely to hinder.
Right now all the fantasy that the Ukraine will get all of its territory back is doing is getting more Ukrainian and Russian conscripts killed. Now that enough Russian conscripts have been killed to deter them for another 20-30 years, there is really no sense to it. This is going to end up like Korea, an armistice with no formal peace along lines very close to what both sides currently occupy. The longer it takes for that to happen the more conscripts on both sides will be maimed and/or die. And the fewer and fewer of those refugees that will ever again call Ukraine home. Nor will the US support Ukraine “As long as it takes.” Just ask the former Afghan government - those that survive anyway.
10-31-2023, 08:02 AM
#1785
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
RU very clearly thinks it's entitled to dominion over Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. What's the point of empire if you don't subjugate anyone? Kaliningrad needs rescuing from Nato Nazis too. And they'll admit feeling entitled to Poland as well, after enough vodka. Their ultimate fantasy would of course be back to Berlin.
10-31-2023, 09:15 AM
#1786
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,044
Not unlike the Catalonians who believe they should be freed from domination by those damn Castilians and the Basque who want freedom from the French and the Spanish and dozens of other groups in Europe that aspire to SOMEDAY correct some ancient perceived wrong. Europe is replete with such feelings.
The current climate in Europe is that borders are set and nobody will be moving them anytime soon. Worst you might see is Scottish independence, via a mutually agreed legal and political process. But the borders won't move. Angry euro hillbillies notwithstanding.
10-31-2023, 09:37 AM
#1787
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
Another voice heard from…
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-coun.../32662550.html
an excerpt:
In the obliterated eastern industrial city of Avdiyivka, Ukrainian troops are trying to avoid being encircled by a multipronged Russian offensive -- the largest single coordinated effort since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
About 500 kilometers to the southwest, something else is happening: The Ukrainians are crossing the Dnieper River.
For nearly two weeks now, at a location along the marshy wetlands along the east bank of the river, Ukrainian marine infantry and other units have been holding out against assaults from Russian paratroopers and frequent poundings from fighter jets and artillery. A closely watched Russian war blogger this week reported a second Ukrainian bridgehead, further upriver.
It’s far from clear whether the effort will succeed; river crossings are complicated and dangerous for even the best-equipped armies. Ukrainian forces will have to move more troops and heavier armored equipment across the water if there’s to be any hope of opening a major new front against Russian troops, experts said.
At best, the river crossing is a glimmer of good news as Ukraine’s larger counteroffensive, launched at the beginning of June, bogs down against formidable Russian defenses -- and soon, wet, winter weather. At worst, it’s a sign of desperation, a last gasp in a push that has fallen short of the goal of cutting though a Russian-held corridor and reaching the Sea of Azov.
“Russian defenses are now deep, well-prepared, and backed with significant reserves, whereas Ukraine is now fighting mostly with forces raised since the 2022 invasion and which have never had the luxury of time to train properly at brigade level and above,” said Stephen Biddle, an adviser to U.S. General David Petraeus during the Iraq War and now a professor of international relations at Columbia University.
“This combination is not propitious for quick offensive success,” he said.
About 500 kilometers to the southwest, something else is happening: The Ukrainians are crossing the Dnieper River.
For nearly two weeks now, at a location along the marshy wetlands along the east bank of the river, Ukrainian marine infantry and other units have been holding out against assaults from Russian paratroopers and frequent poundings from fighter jets and artillery. A closely watched Russian war blogger this week reported a second Ukrainian bridgehead, further upriver.
It’s far from clear whether the effort will succeed; river crossings are complicated and dangerous for even the best-equipped armies. Ukrainian forces will have to move more troops and heavier armored equipment across the water if there’s to be any hope of opening a major new front against Russian troops, experts said.
At best, the river crossing is a glimmer of good news as Ukraine’s larger counteroffensive, launched at the beginning of June, bogs down against formidable Russian defenses -- and soon, wet, winter weather. At worst, it’s a sign of desperation, a last gasp in a push that has fallen short of the goal of cutting though a Russian-held corridor and reaching the Sea of Azov.
“Russian defenses are now deep, well-prepared, and backed with significant reserves, whereas Ukraine is now fighting mostly with forces raised since the 2022 invasion and which have never had the luxury of time to train properly at brigade level and above,” said Stephen Biddle, an adviser to U.S. General David Petraeus during the Iraq War and now a professor of international relations at Columbia University.
“This combination is not propitious for quick offensive success,” he said.
11-01-2023, 10:08 AM
#1788
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
Another voice heard from…
European leaders are “tired” of the war in Ukraine, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told two Russian pranksters in a call — thinking she was speaking with officials with the African Union.
Meloni informed the pair that “fatigue” with the war was coming to a head.
“I see that there is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides,” she said. “We [are] near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out.”Audio of the call, which took place in September, was released online on Wednesday by Russian comedy duo, Vovan and Lexus, whose real names are Vladimir Kuznetsov and Alexei Stolyarov. They have been accused of acting as a “pro-Kremlin tool of information warfare” by targeting high-profile westerners who have spoken out against Moscow since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meloni’s office said in a statement it “regretted” she was “deceived by an impostor” who passed himself off as the head of the executive of the African Union, a 55-member bloc.
It explained that the call took place on September 18 in the lead-up to meetings with African leaders at the U.N. General Assembly.
The leaked conversation comes as Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked the West not to relent in its support for Ukraine. He said this week that the “scariest thing” is that some in the world have grown used to the war in Ukraine.
“Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave,” he said in an interview with Time. “You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’”
Meloni isn’t the first high-profile politician to have been taken in by such mischief. Earlier this year, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was duped by the pair pretending to be former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. They’ve also caught out former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and singer Elton John.
11-01-2023, 08:13 PM
#1789
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to rally his troops and support for Ukraine Tuesday, saying there will be no easy victories in the counteroffensive to retake Russian-occupied territory.
“The modern world is designed in such a way that it gets used to success too quickly,” he said in his nightly address, adding that “when the full-scale aggression began, many in the world expected that Ukraine would not survive.”
“Now the colossal things that our people, all our warriors are doing, are taken for granted,” he added.
Zelenskyy’s comments came as Russia appeared to intensify its assaults on Ukraine, with one minister saying the country had experienced the most attacks in one day, on Tuesday, since the start of the year.
There are also concerns over the slow progress Ukraine has made in its counteroffensive launched in June, with growing impatience and reluctance, in some Western quarters, to continue giving large amounts of military aid to Ukraine.
“The modern world is designed in such a way that it gets used to success too quickly,” he said in his nightly address, adding that “when the full-scale aggression began, many in the world expected that Ukraine would not survive.”
“Now the colossal things that our people, all our warriors are doing, are taken for granted,” he added.
Zelenskyy’s comments came as Russia appeared to intensify its assaults on Ukraine, with one minister saying the country had experienced the most attacks in one day, on Tuesday, since the start of the year.
There are also concerns over the slow progress Ukraine has made in its counteroffensive launched in June, with growing impatience and reluctance, in some Western quarters, to continue giving large amounts of military aid to Ukraine.
11-01-2023, 08:20 PM
#1790
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,115
Another voice heard from:
Nov 1st 2023
Five months into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable–and thus change Vladimir Putin’s calculations, forcing the Russian president to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are in the first and second world wars in which Russia lost tens of millions
Five months into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable–and thus change Vladimir Putin’s calculations, forcing the Russian president to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are in the first and second world wars in which Russia lost tens of millions
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