METO Guido

It's in no way a sunk cost for defending battalions and minutemen alike. There are countless historical comparisons. Two things are unlikely anytime soon, surrender or settlement. Could a ceasefire expand into a 38th parallel like no man's land arrangement, upheld under directly negotiated US/RU terms? But one of several possibilities. At least two more months of Zhivagoesque frozen trauma to plow through 1st.

rickair7777

Going there was necessary, whether you think it's a good idea or not. Sent the message and set the example to discourage others in the future from similar behavior... terrorism/asymmetric ops really require the support, or at the very least the tolerance, of a nation-state of some sort. Nation states have stuff to lose... there's a reason there have been no significant (foriegn) terror attacks on US soil since 9/11.

But we shouldn't have stayed and tried to remake them in our own image. Lesson learned. It worked with Germany and Japan for cultural reasons... but AFG/ME is quite a different animal.

rickair7777

Actively driving towards regime change in RU is fraught with peril, for multiple reasons.

IMO our Realpolitik on this is preventing RU from succeeding in taking over UR. That alone will damage the RU regime, and also send the message to the whole world that we won't sit idly by while autocrats change national borders to suit their taste.

Passively assisting those who oppose the regime, hoping for or relishing a regime change is OK. If we force a regime change, we'll get blamed for the near-inevitable fallout... and that's for non-peer, non-nuclear states. RU, PRC, NK present a whole 'nother set of risks.

There are a variety of ways we can "win" in UR... by we I mean the US/NATO/the West, not necessarily UR/Zelenskyy.

RU might need to be allowed to keep some territory to save face, since that's a practical political reality. But the net cost to the regime will be very high, and they won't do it again anytime soon. And PRC observed what happened too... IMO that's half the reason we needed to draw a line in the sand on this. Maybe more than half the reason.

Excargodog

Which is sort of what I meant by being willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. We never had any intention of giving Ukraine enough resources to actually win, because the risk to NATO/US is simply too high. But we are bringing down our own supply of munitions substantially (and NATO-US never had much to begin with) and that can’t go on forever either:

https://qz.com/this-chart-explains-why-the-us-is-running-low-on-missil-1849945208

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/11/21/weapons-shortages-spark-tough-choices-for-ukraines-allies/

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/us-weapon-stocks-ukraine/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-ammunition-csg/restocking-western-ammunition-after-arming-ukraine-will-take-years-producer-idINL8N32R4T9



Military munitions are ALWAYS a long lead time procurement issue, even in times when there aren’t supply chain issues and we aren’t refusing to trade with the people we used to get our titanium and rare earth minerals from.

Nor are those sanctions long term sustainable.

https://www.theamericanconservative....e-ukraine-war/

Absent an exceptionally mild winter I think Western Europe would be caving already. Even so, Western Europe cannot afford to sustain the economic costs of the loss of cheap energy, fertilizer, etc. indefinitely. Which will happen if they let China and India become Russia’s main trading partners. And right now Europe is supporting nearly 7 million Ukrainian refugees. That’s costly too.

And as for the Ukraine, their economy is already a shambles and they’ll spend decades dealing with unexplored ordnance.

Hubcapped

What exactly is your point? We should stop support? We should continue?

Wrt your call on ammo, I’m pretty sure that ammo levels don’t matter lol, russia isn’t coming through the fulda gsp. In fact it’s probably fortuitous that this occurred so people get eyes on their readiness

rickair7777

It does matter somewhat, but more WRT to PRC, not really RU which now has a much worse munitions shortfall than the western allies.

But that's a problem we can fix by buying replacements. And we were already in the midst of developing and fielding a new generation of munitions anyway, especially the higher-end stuff.

Excargodog

The point is. That the current situation is unsustainable, and that Ukraine is going to wind up devastated regardless. And I’m absolutely certain that. Ammunition levels DO matter.

And while I will concede with RickAir’s point that Russia also has ammo problems, but that seems to be an inducement to them to reach for their own high end stuff rather than caving. And the higher we go the greater chance of this morphing into a nuclear battle.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...le-2023-01-04/

Hubcapped

Ammo problems for what? Do you think China is going to invade someone? Do you really think pacaf would let themselves get below pre determined readiness levels? Absolutely not. This is ridiculous argument. Ammo only matters to Ukraine and Russia. And we are out producing Russia.

Honestly I don’t even know what your point is.
Russia lives in a bubble much like Iran. China is completely different, and should not be brought up other than that we just showed them we have the will to put our money where our mouth is.

It almost feels like you just want Ukraine to roll over and die. Why is that? And why should they?

It’s so fascinating how Russia propaganda creeped into our right wing.

Hubcapped

You want to know what the reality is cargo? If Biden didn’t support Ukraine you guys would cry havoc, if Biden put boots in the ground back in Afghanistan you’d cry havoc. The left and the right are ruining this country with the lack of the ability to adult up and compromise

METO Guido

Where in the preceding dialog is that indicated? The primary objective of foreign policy decision making is safeguarding the republic. There’s a shooting war in Europe. Every new day brings with it jeopardy the security spiderweb we’re bouncing on rips through. The only poster painting stale partisan jargon is the OP.