Ukraine conflict
08-24-2023, 11:33 AM
#1161
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,050
Problem with a shootdown over land, is that you cannot actually obscure the details about how it went down. It would be risky for powers that be, in the event of regime change, since there are actually laws against that sort of thing even in RU, and innocent people were killed (pilots if nobody else).
An intel operative, possibly even a third-party cutout, planting a bomb in the cargo bay or wheel well is a lot harder to document.
This way everybody got the message but there's little evidence. Pretty sure the SVR could manage that without leaving anything which could be traced back.
No way could you organize the military chain of command to do something like that and be sure it would stay quite, too many folks involved, and some of them might even refuse to shoot down a civil aircraft in RU airspace. It's almost an absurd concept, RU has never openly assassinated anyone, it's enough that everyone knows they did without being able to prove it.
08-24-2023, 02:13 PM
#1164
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 702
WSJ is reporting that US intel is calling it assassination via bomb or sabotage, as expected.
Problem with a shootdown over land, is that you cannot actually obscure the details about how it went down. It would be risky for powers that be, in the event of regime change, since there are actually laws against that sort of thing even in RU, and innocent people were killed (pilots if nobody else).
An intel operative, possibly even a third-party cutout, planting a bomb in the cargo bay or wheel well is a lot harder to document.
This way everybody got the message but there's little evidence. Pretty sure the SVR could manage that without leaving anything which could be traced back.
No way could you organize the military chain of command to do something like that and be sure it would stay quite, too many folks involved, and some of them might even refuse to shoot down a civil aircraft in RU airspace. It's almost an absurd concept, RU has never openly assassinated anyone, it's enough that everyone knows they did without being able to prove it.
Problem with a shootdown over land, is that you cannot actually obscure the details about how it went down. It would be risky for powers that be, in the event of regime change, since there are actually laws against that sort of thing even in RU, and innocent people were killed (pilots if nobody else).
An intel operative, possibly even a third-party cutout, planting a bomb in the cargo bay or wheel well is a lot harder to document.
This way everybody got the message but there's little evidence. Pretty sure the SVR could manage that without leaving anything which could be traced back.
No way could you organize the military chain of command to do something like that and be sure it would stay quite, too many folks involved, and some of them might even refuse to shoot down a civil aircraft in RU airspace. It's almost an absurd concept, RU has never openly assassinated anyone, it's enough that everyone knows they did without being able to prove it.
That white cloud is definitely the "contrail" that formed when the cabin popped like a balloon. The noise is what got the attention of the woman on the ground to start filming.
08-24-2023, 03:32 PM
#1165
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 1,437
08-24-2023, 03:45 PM
#1166
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 4,752
I'm going 95% he was "disappeared", slight/minute 5% chance he made himself "disappear".
08-25-2023, 09:42 AM
#1167
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,595
WSJ is reporting that US intel is calling it assassination via bomb or sabotage, as expected.
Problem with a shootdown over land, is that you cannot actually obscure the details about how it went down. It would be risky for powers that be, in the event of regime change, since there are actually laws against that sort of thing even in RU, and innocent people were killed (pilots if nobody else).
An intel operative, possibly even a third-party cutout, planting a bomb in the cargo bay or wheel well is a lot harder to document.
This way everybody got the message but there's little evidence. Pretty sure the SVR could manage that without leaving anything which could be traced back.
No way could you organize the military chain of command to do something like that and be sure it would stay quite, too many folks involved, and some of them might even refuse to shoot down a civil aircraft in RU airspace. It's almost an absurd concept, RU has never openly assassinated anyone, it's enough that everyone knows they did without being able to prove it.
Problem with a shootdown over land, is that you cannot actually obscure the details about how it went down. It would be risky for powers that be, in the event of regime change, since there are actually laws against that sort of thing even in RU, and innocent people were killed (pilots if nobody else).
An intel operative, possibly even a third-party cutout, planting a bomb in the cargo bay or wheel well is a lot harder to document.
This way everybody got the message but there's little evidence. Pretty sure the SVR could manage that without leaving anything which could be traced back.
No way could you organize the military chain of command to do something like that and be sure it would stay quite, too many folks involved, and some of them might even refuse to shoot down a civil aircraft in RU airspace. It's almost an absurd concept, RU has never openly assassinated anyone, it's enough that everyone knows they did without being able to prove it.
I'd go with a bomb though, simply because it is a lot cheaper and easier.
I personally don't feel bad for the dead pilots or the FA. They were working for Wagner Group. There is nothing innocent about that. Good riddens.
08-25-2023, 05:09 PM
#1169
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,050
That was an accident, followed by a failed coverup attempt. Nobody was in legal jeopardy except low level operators, they were identified and sentenced to life in prison (don't know if they'll ever be remanded by RU, doubt it).
08-25-2023, 06:14 PM
#1170
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,595
Putin knows he can do that if he wants. I still think it was a bomb, just because of the cost of a missile compared to some explosives.
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