How could it end?

Defense experts say it’s unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year. But they note it’s crucial for Ukraine to be able to show at least some gains in order to maintain Western support for the war into 2024 — and perhaps beyond.

“Clearly, from a Ukrainian perspective, you’ve got to at least have some significant successes so that you can go to NATO and the United States and say, ‘Look, guys, sorry it wasn’t as successful as we wanted it to be but with the weapons you’ve given us ... we’ve done enough to cut the Russian forces in two so that you can invest in another goal in spring 2024, to keep hope alive,’” Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official and international defense and security expert at think tank Chatham House, told CNBC.

“I think the danger for Ukrainians is if they really do end up with a stalemate, where they’ve gained very, very little territory where a lot of the equipment supplied by the West has been written off with Ukrainians having suffered very significant casualties,” Shea said.

That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West

CNN — Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.

Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.

In addition, Western officials say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.

These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

“Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time,” Quigley said.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will spark a “blame game” among Ukrainian officials and their western supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance which has remained largely intact nearly two years into the war.

“The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us,” said a senior western diplomat.

Ukrainian conscription officials accused of taking bribes and smuggling people out of the country have been sacked in an anti-corruption purge.

Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed more than 30 people face criminal charges, with all regional officials in charged of military conscription removed.

He said bribery at a time of war is "high treason".

It comes amid efforts to bolster the armed forces, as Ukraine's counter-offensive operation continues.

A statement from the president's office said corruption allegations "pose a threat to Ukraine's national security and undermine confidence in state institutions".
Replacement officials will be chosen from candidates who have battlefield experience and have been vetted by the intelligence service, it continued.Officials taking cash and cryptocurrency bribes or helping people eligible to be called up to fight to leave Ukraine are among the charges, said Mr Zelensky, in a video posted on social media.

Ukraine's general mobilisation rules mean all men over the age of 18 capable of fighting are eligible to be conscripted, and most adult men under the age of 60 are prohibited from leaving the country.

"We are dismissing all regional military commissars," he said.

"This system should be run by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery at a time of war is high treason."

He said the conscription system "is not working decently", adding: "The way they treat warriors, the way they treat their duties, it's just immoral."

The corruption came to light after an inspection of local army offices.

Mr Zelensky said 112 criminal proceedings against 33 suspects have been launched against regional officials, and that abuses had been found across the country.

Neither Ukraine or Russia reveal how many of their soldiers have been killed since the February 2022 invasion, but both have sought recruit widely as attritional fighting continues.

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The anti-corruption drive is the latest to be launched by the Zelensky government.

In January 11 officials accused of corruption left their their posts and the head of the country's Supreme Court was detained in May over bribery allegations.

Corruption in public services has been a long-running problem in Ukraine and tackling it is one of the tests the country would have to pass to join Western institutions like the European Union.

After over a year of pleading with Western allies to provide F-16 jetsto aid their resistance against Russian combatants, Ukrainian troops are facing new delays in pilot training that will prevent them from utilizing the specialized planes.

President Joe Biden, who had staunchly opposed sending F-16s to Ukraine, in May reversed course and backed the idea of training Ukrainian troops to pilot the jets. Insider previously reported the UK and Netherlands formed an "international coalition" to procure the jets, and the US authorized its allies to send the F-16s and help train pilots.

The Washington Post reported Denmark and the Netherlands volunteered to lead the training effort, promising to get Ukrainian pilots in the skies by September but the training has since been pushed back multiple times.

The delays in training mean that Ukrainian pilots will be unable to use F-16s provided by allies until next summer, the outlet reported — unless another training pathway is provided.