Ukraine conflict
07-20-2023, 12:22 PM
#1011
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Yet another opinion…
From Yahoo News and The Warzone.
https://news.yahoo.com/sobering-anal...221322771.html
Some excerpts:
https://news.yahoo.com/sobering-anal...221322771.html
Some excerpts:
Gady however was quick to emphasize that “no Western type of military can really do this sort of combined arms operations at scale, with the exception of the United States. But even the United States Armed Forces would have a very difficult time breaking through these defensive layers because no Western military in the world currently has any experience in breaching the types of defenses in depth that the Russians put up, in the south and east of Ukraine.”
For a long while since they first arrived on the battlefield for Ukraine, the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS systems took on an almost mythical status for Ukraine. The Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) munitions they fired offered a longer reach (about 50 miles) than Ukraine’s existing MLRS or tubed artillery, and had a devastating effect especially on Russian logistics nodes.But Russia has found ways to counter GMLRS, Gady said when asked for a deeper explanation of what he said in his thread.
“Russian electronic warfare apparently has an impact on the successful employment of GMLRS,” he told us. “Russian layered integrated air and missile defenses seem to have an impact and actually managed to shoot down some of these GMLRS as well.”
As a result, “I think it's fair to say that the HIMARS effect from last summer has been definitely over,” Gady said. “So I think we should keep that in mind when we think about other long-range precision-guided munitions that have been provided to Ukraine. Russia, sooner or later, will find a countermeasure to it.”
“Russian electronic warfare apparently has an impact on the successful employment of GMLRS,” he told us. “Russian layered integrated air and missile defenses seem to have an impact and actually managed to shoot down some of these GMLRS as well.”
As a result, “I think it's fair to say that the HIMARS effect from last summer has been definitely over,” Gady said. “So I think we should keep that in mind when we think about other long-range precision-guided munitions that have been provided to Ukraine. Russia, sooner or later, will find a countermeasure to it.”
The insights offered by Gady and his colleagues offer a much more sober sense of the counteroffensive than what comes out of official statements from Kyiv and the Pentagon.
Asked to sum up his assessment, Gady told us the following.
"It‘s a grinding fight characterized by high rates of attrition with Ukrainian forces making incremental gains," he said. "There is still the potential for Ukrainian military success."
Asked to sum up his assessment, Gady told us the following.
"It‘s a grinding fight characterized by high rates of attrition with Ukrainian forces making incremental gains," he said. "There is still the potential for Ukrainian military success."
07-20-2023, 06:05 PM
#1012
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,902
The centerpiece of the special op was always control of the ports. Why did the CSA lose? No harbor control. Add the prize of Gazprom domination in the Odesa, here we are. It’s the 1st thing they want. The dead last thing Ukraine can afford to concede. Henry K, if you want an old timer for the job. And it seems like you punks can’t function without them, call Henry. He turned 100 last May.
07-20-2023, 07:00 PM
#1013
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
The difficult thing to deal with is the geography. When this is all said and done, however it comes out, the Ukraine and Russia will STILL share a common border, wherever that border is. It may be a heavily armed border like Korea has had for the last 80 years, but the actual geography will look pretty much the same.
And everyone needs to realize that BOTH sides have their propaganda machines - they’d be crazy to do anything else. Hey, in WWII we even had Donald Duck in our propaganda films.
https://youtu.be/IWAf3dQxAfQ
But generally, if you get your info from multiple sources, you can usually get a fair estimate of how things are really going. But barring regime change one way or another or someone actually going nuclear, this is almost certainly will be headed for a negotiated settlement - perhaps along the lines of Korea, an armistice without really ever a formal peace. The only question is where the line will be drawn. My opinion, anyway. Your opinion might be different.
And everyone needs to realize that BOTH sides have their propaganda machines - they’d be crazy to do anything else. Hey, in WWII we even had Donald Duck in our propaganda films.
https://youtu.be/IWAf3dQxAfQ
But generally, if you get your info from multiple sources, you can usually get a fair estimate of how things are really going. But barring regime change one way or another or someone actually going nuclear, this is almost certainly will be headed for a negotiated settlement - perhaps along the lines of Korea, an armistice without really ever a formal peace. The only question is where the line will be drawn. My opinion, anyway. Your opinion might be different.
07-20-2023, 09:02 PM
#1014
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,902
But barring regime change one way or another or someone actually going nuclear, this is almost certainly will be headed for a negotiated settlement - perhaps along the lines of Korea, an armistice without really ever a formal peace. The only question is where the line will be drawn. My opinion, anyway. Your opinion might be different.
07-21-2023, 06:36 AM
#1015
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,406
The difficult thing to deal with is the geography. When this is all said and done, however it comes out, the Ukraine and Russia will STILL share a common border, wherever that border is. It may be a heavily armed border like Korea has had for the last 80 years, but the actual geography will look pretty much the same.
And everyone needs to realize that BOTH sides have their propaganda machines - they’d be crazy to do anything else. Hey, in WWII we even had Donald Duck in our propaganda films.
https://youtu.be/IWAf3dQxAfQ
But generally, if you get your info from multiple sources, you can usually get a fair estimate of how things are really going. But barring regime change one way or another or someone actually going nuclear, this is almost certainly will be headed for a negotiated settlement - perhaps along the lines of Korea, an armistice without really ever a formal peace. The only question is where the line will be drawn. My opinion, anyway. Your opinion might be different.
And everyone needs to realize that BOTH sides have their propaganda machines - they’d be crazy to do anything else. Hey, in WWII we even had Donald Duck in our propaganda films.
https://youtu.be/IWAf3dQxAfQ
But generally, if you get your info from multiple sources, you can usually get a fair estimate of how things are really going. But barring regime change one way or another or someone actually going nuclear, this is almost certainly will be headed for a negotiated settlement - perhaps along the lines of Korea, an armistice without really ever a formal peace. The only question is where the line will be drawn. My opinion, anyway. Your opinion might be different.
07-21-2023, 07:34 AM
#1016
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Sure. Like China maintains that the Republic of China (Ie., Taiwan) is merely a wayward province that - like with Hong Kong - they will someday recover. Some fights it’s easy to put off and let the next generation (or the one after that?) handle once the current generation has taken enough of a beating. Heck, we essentially conceded Eastern Europe and Mongolia to Stalin at Yalta and Potsdam and lived for a long time with the consequences of those deals.
07-21-2023, 07:51 AM
#1017
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
Domestic issues trump concern for Ukraine..
Europe being Europe, already domestic issues in other states are affecting the nominal coalition supporting the Ukraine:
In the end, their own economies mean more to them than confronting Russia aggression
https://www.politico.eu/article/hung...aine-military/
https://www.politico.eu/article/bloc...y-agriculture/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-nuclear...-eu/a-66275352
In the end, their own economies mean more to them than confronting Russia aggression
https://www.politico.eu/article/hung...aine-military/
https://www.politico.eu/article/bloc...y-agriculture/
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-nuclear...-eu/a-66275352
07-22-2023, 06:37 AM
#1018
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
07-22-2023, 06:45 AM
#1019
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,252
More hypocrisy from those who underfund NATO
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/21/chrystia-freeland-aspen-ukraine-00107658
Talk the talk? Sure. Walk the walk? Not so much.
07-22-2023, 09:05 AM
#1020
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,406
If everybody is so serious about reducing carbon, I guess I'm OK with not cutting ties with RU nuclear. Assuming that you buy the whole global warming narrative, then it would be logical that it actually is *more* of a crisis than UA's territorial integrity.
In WW-II we weren't going to stop until unconditional surrender or we bombed them to rubble. That's not the case here, RU will still be around in a few years. We're still very much in the DImE realm with this conflict (small "m" for emphasis), not all-out warfare.
In WW-II we weren't going to stop until unconditional surrender or we bombed them to rubble. That's not the case here, RU will still be around in a few years. We're still very much in the DImE realm with this conflict (small "m" for emphasis), not all-out warfare.
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