Hubcapped

I think Russia is using it as groundwork to ease the political fallout when they “feel” forced to use them during a withdrawal to pre war lines.

If the Ukrainians have cold wx gear for their troops and Vicks, I think we will see pre war lines re-established by summer

rickair7777

The pre war lines are pretty vague at this point...

Excargodog

Not saying anyone would use a dirty bomb - especially within their own borders, but I agree, that sort of “nuclear” weapon is easily within the capability of the Ukraine. And like the bombing of the bridge to the Crimea, utilizing one outside their borders is also within the technical capability of the Ukrainian military. And it is unequivocally a WMD, certainly as much as the more short-lived chemical WMDs for area denial purposes.

rickair7777

Well a major consideration for the use of any radionuclear weapon (fission or dirty) is that the isotopes have a signature (a fingerprint of sorts) which allows any outside observers to readily determine the source of the material, including where the ore was mined and which reactor it was processed in.

Or at the very least eliminate known sources... so a party which was blamed in a false-flag operation could simply allow access to all of their radionuclide sources, much like an innocent person giving a fingerprint or DNA sample so they can be ruled out as a suspect.

In the case of UA and RU the water could be a bit muddy in that regard since both parties have had access to some of the same sources over the years. But it would still be really hard to do a false flag and make it stick... the rest of the world would pull out all the stops to get to the truth.

Excargodog

Ah, like the rest of the world has pulled out all the stops to get to the origin of COVID?

Perhaps, but two tours overseas in support of NATO has left me rather skeptical of many of our allies sincerity and commitment even to their own defense - far less that of the largely unaligned rest of the world. I think it’s foolish to bet that Putin won’t escalate or that he is somehow going to be restrained by India or China who are very happy to buy Russian oil despite the sanctions.

YMMV, but I’m basing this on my own experiences.

rickair7777

The rest of the world doesn't want that kind of precedent set. With covid it was easy to just assume it was a natural bug, but you can't really ignore a WMD against a foriegn nation (yes they ignore chem weapons used against troublesome minorities but only within the tyrant's own borders).

Unlike covid, if a radionuclear weapon is used, obviously SOMEBODY is to blame. And at least some of the fallout will probably disperse to other countries.

The US and the top boys in Europe, backed by JP and AU and maybe ROK, would get to the bottom of it. The rest of the world would carefully observe.

I also think the Euros have had their wake-up call, at least their money is now where their mouths are.

Excargodog

I predict the Euros start to fold by March 2023.


https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/10/2...in-europe/amp/

The Ukraine never was that important to them, the Dem progressives are ready to give them up and the Republicans (less Cheney and a few others) don’t care that much either.

rickair7777

It never was and still isn't. But they've realized they need to draw the line somewhere... preferably east of the Rhine. Enlightened self-interest.

They also don't want WMD, of any sort, deployed anywhere on the continent. Any more than we'd let Mexico use dirty bombs on Guatemala.

But there are also a lot of rank and file citizens in numerous western countries who wholeheartedly support the UA cause... and that does drive politics. At least for a while.

METO Guido

They're systematically annihilating civvies at home. A member state of the 'security council.' Still space to fit Megan & Harry, Tom & Gisele on the nightly broadcast. Not difficult to assess the will of Western voters to join the action. Too bad Ukraine ain't Syria. Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.

Excargodog

Have you ever actually LIVED in the EU Rick? Everybody there hates everybody. It’s got thousands of years of history and over that time everybody has done their neighbors wrong and vice versa, and they can’t let it go.

In Barcelona the Catalonians still gripe about the b@stards in Castille and want independence, harking back to the time Ferdinand and Isabella gathered the Christian kingdoms to drive out the Moors. The government in Catalonia had a non-binding plebiscite on independence and the government officials who allowed it got jailed for it.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...iled-referendu

Ever hear of the Basque separatist movement? They want out of France AND Spain. Or a legion of other separatist movements:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ents_in_Europe

Even the unity of the United Kingdom is shaky:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland...itics-50813510

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ng-scotland-uk

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...s-to-sinn-fein

No, nobody wants anyone popping off dirty bombs, but neither is there any unity. Some postage stamp sized countries have three official languages.